Domestic market: “began to pray for health, finished lower”
The dynamics of the bond market this week can be assessed as mixed. End of tax payments and the growing cost of oil have supported the positions of the Russian ruble and money market rates, which generally boosted the attractiveness of ruble-denominated debt instruments. In the first half of the week we saw the growth of trading activity and the predominance of buyers in the market. However, relatively rapid deterioration of conditions in the western areas has been painfully felt in the domestic market. Reducing Friday until the character is an aggressive sell-offs, but if the correction in external markets will be prolonged, the ruble may be under strong pressure, which in turn eliminates all the attractiveness of the ruble bond market.

The biggest turnover grew Zenit-5 (0,58%), Moskva61 (0,37%), CFR-12 (0,3%), Moskva62 (0,18%), VTB-5 (0, 1%). Decreased following quotation of securities - Gazpromneft-3 (-0.02%), VTB-6 (-0.02%), MDM-BW 1 (-0.05%) CFR-10 (-0.05%) GazpromA9 (-0.16%), Moskva56 (-0,19%), Mechel-5 (-0.25%), NLMK BW-5 (-0.48%), Rayffazb-4 (-0.54% ), System-3 (-0.63%), TsentrTel-5 (-0.67%), System-2 (-0.69%).

Completion tax period, a favorable impact on the level of ruble liquidity. Within 7 days the total funds on correspondent accounts and deposits with Central Bank grew 15,4% to 995.6 billion rubles. on the morning of Friday, January 22. The conjuncture of the money market remains favorable: rates Mosprime O /N - 4,19%, 1M - 5,28%, 3M - 5,93%. NDF curve looks comfortably - 1M - 4,96%, 3M - 5,44%, 1Y - 6,19%. According to the results of the second half Friday during the week the dollar grew by 0,22% to 30.415 rubles. And the euro “has fallen in price on 0,96% to 41.741 rubles. Last week, the currency basket exchange rate to the ruble fell by 0,37%, and amounted to 35.514 rubles.

Market US Treasuries and Eurobonds: data for the January unemployment in the U.S. well-received
Key for investors unemployment figures for January were met1000by investors with a moderate optimism, as despite the decline in jobs for 20 thousand (expected to increase by 15 thousand), the aggregate unemployment rate fell to 9.7% (forecast - 10%). In addition, a good signal has been reported that the average working week, along with the number of employees on temporary contracts has increased. Yields on long-releases increased during the week in the range of 4-8 bp - UST-2 - 0.803% per annum (-1 bp to Thursday), UST-10 - 3.627% per annum (2b.p.), UST-30 - 4.575% per annum (2b.p.). Before the opening of markets in the U.S. on Friday, we see the market selling intensified US Treasuries. In the segment of Russian Eurobonds remains low activity - Rus-30 for a week “subsided” on 0,27% of the price to 112.18% of par, the yield of the issue is 5.467% per annum (23 bp). Spread between the Rus-1930 - UST-1910 has narrowed by 1 bp to 184 bp

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All is lost - fell contango!

Now a lot of confusion around. Former U.S. president confuses Iraq and Iran, the other day, General of Romanian soldiers mistakenly sent to Tahiti in French Polynesia instead of Haiti … I have a version that investors are passionately want to buy shares, but confused the button to “sell” and “buy”, so the market is weak. Now let”s talk seriously. By 16.40 the MICEX index fell by 2.8% (up to December”s levels), but this is not a reason for the total pessimism. Fall is a margin papers of the first echelon, second echelon (Energy, Telecoms) purchase there. In the first echelon in the shares of Gazprom”s proposal to buy at 176 were not realized - and this is positive. According to Gazprom is a positive news background (”Investor Day”). The acts of Rosneft, a substantial decline -2.8% and at the same time there is a big buyer and at times exposes to buy (size of 200 000 - 300 000 pieces). From this I conclude that the spot demand in the first echelon is also present and all that, amid a sharp decrease in unemployment in the U.S. (in January).

Giving forecasts for next week - a thankless task, but I would venture to suggest that in the case of penetration bears support 9950 index DJIA, domestic MICEX index continued its decline to the level of support for 1,310 points. However, this option, I think it unlikely, because oil quotations are now approaching the support of $ 72.4 per barrel, where a suspension reduction. Contango - the excess of the June futures price of WTI crude futures in relation to the March today fell from yesterday 2.02% to 0.97% (below 1.98% in the last two months is not omitted) and indicates the strength of a bear sentiment in the oil market , but I expect a rebound of oil upward. Dynamics of oil and gas sector would be “better than the market”.

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8 and 9 February the Bank of Russia will hold auctions on the MICEX for credit institutions to extend credit without collateral, with the following parameters:

limit credit auctions 8 and 9 February 2010:

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As it became known “EI”, Kharkiv regional hozsud invalidated a collateral agreement on foreign exchange credit between Ukreximbank and Kiev company Acropolis-K. The bank is suspected to be victims of legal tyranny.

The petition to Ukreximbank company Acropolis-K as a participant in a joint partnership with the companies” nakfa “and” Arch Investments asked the court to in1000validate the contract of mortgage of land in a prestigious district in Kiev region on foreign exchange loans to seven-figure sum. The reason for the complainant considered that the transfer of land in security for the loan was not agreed between the parties to the joint partnership.

The bank”s press service reported that the court ruled in favor of the complainant and the suspect could become a victim of legal tyranny. “The judge sort out the problem and announced the decision in favor of the complainant for 20 minutes, although the bank has provided sufficient reasons for rejecting the claim - said the press service .- The bank, which in the course of working off a loan project took three weeks just to check all the legal nuances provide the court with documents showing that the necessary transfer of mortgage of land permits participants sharing partnership was taken at general meetings of the respective companies. Moreover, the claimant is the founder and sole member companies who have conveyed their property to the bank as collateral. ”

adds piquancy to the situation by the fact that at the time the loan company nakfa “and” Arch-Investments were registered in Kiev. However, at the time of filing of the claim by the representative of “The Acropolis-K” urgently re-registered in Kharkiv. Now the bank to appeal and appeal to the Prosecutor”s Office with a request from the state to participate in the proceedings before the Commercial Court of Appeal Kharkov. Read the rest of this entry »

value of the euro on Friday had fallen to a minimum for more than 8 months against the dollar due to concerns that rising budget deficits hurt economic recovery in the euro zone, reported Bloomberg.

Euro completes the fall in the dollar and yen, the fourth straight week amid rising risk of state bonds in Europe and expectations of weak data on industrial production in Germany.

euro has fallen in price on Friday to $ 1.3707 from $ 1.3723 at the end of the previous session in New York. In the course of trading the euro fell to $ 1.3670 - the lowest since May last year.

course of American national currency against the yen has risen by this timeec9to 89.65 yen against 89.05 the previous day.

course the single European currency against the yen rose on Friday to 122.89 yen against 122.20 on the end of the session on Thursday. Read the rest of this entry »

Claus, essentially spoiled an already poor harvest vegetables Borschovo group, played into the hands of traffickers, who knew how to preserve fruit in the presentation. Last week potatoes, carrots, cabbage and onions have risen in price by 0,5-1 UAH /kg and the spring will add a minimum of 10 kopecks. weekly. The opportunity earn already interested importers, hastily forged scarce supply of vegetables from neighboring countries.

Ukraine is rapidly becoming more expensive vegetables. The highest price shock occurred in the so-called Borshchov group (potatoes, cabbage, carrots, onions), which last month added to the cost of 20-30% and appears to be in the coming months, the dynamics will continue. For example, as of January 22 on the wholesale market SHUVAR (Lvov) potatoes sold for 3 UAH /kg, which is 50 kopecks. more expensive than the previous week, and 1,15 UAH. - Less than a month ago. Cabbage week add 1 UAH /kg - to 4 UAH /kg. A month ago, according to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, the national average price for white did not extend beyond 2,35 UAH /kg. For the carrot ask 4 UAH /kg instead of 3 UAH. a week ago and 2,5 UAH. In December, for the bow - UAH 3,6-4. instead of 3,2 UAH /kg.

representative of IFC, realizing the project in Ukraine for the development of vegetable production, Fedor Rybalko said that in the next couple of months, a trend rise in price of vegetables weekly from Borschovo set to 10-50 kopecks /kg is likely to continue, and by April could even intensify . As a result, by the end of the season fruit has all chances to grow by more 1,5-2 times.

Among the reasons for the price frenzy Rybalko calls several factors. This year”s vegetable harvest Borschovo group in the country at 15-20% lower than in the past. Due to overproduction and lower prices for vegetables in 2008 (0,8-1 UAH /kg), many farmers in the last season abandoned unprofitable products. As a result, the proposal on the market declined significantly.

market participants expected the imbalance will smooth over low consumption. In the wake of the crisis, they expected the decline in sales of at least 10%. Practice has shown that pessimistic expectations are not met. Other products have risen in price far more disruptive, so the Ukrainians have become relatively inexpensive vegetables, even more than before the crisis. Read the rest of this entry »

VolWest Group, which owns a network of food “Our Land”, calculates the end of the year to attract at least $ 7 million by selling shares in the network, said yesterday in a group. “This is a minority stake that is up to 25%. However, we are ready to consider any proposals”, - explained CEO VolWest Group Igor Ferenc. The company notes that the market has stopped falling and is now a good time to resume the pace of development. At the expense of attracted investments, the company expects to open this year, about 20 retail stores and to increase the share of retail sales in the Western region from 3% to 10%. “The overall potential of retail in this region can be up to 7 billion UAH”, - the company says.

“Our Land”, which opened its first store in 2001, today unites 55 stores, 29 of them franchised. In 2009, net turnover amounted to USD 450 million (-4.9%). VolWest Group also owns distribution companies Smart Logistics, a company selling heat, refrigeration and air conditioning equipment “Tehnomodul Ultra and sports-entertainment complex” Adrenaline City “in Lutsk. The main owner VolWest Group is an entrepreneur Victor Korsak.

looking for customers “Our Land” won at the end of 2008. The proposal, which was received by potential investors, it was stated that on sale 63 stores (mostly in the format “at home”) in 19 areas of commercial area of 350 square meters. m to 1300 sq. M. Then, for the entire network retailer wanted $ 50 million just for the assignment of lease rights, plus the sale of certain points in their companies, “- said on condition of anonymity one of the market participants. Read the rest of this entry »

Russia”s central bank is considering the closure of bureaux de change, which involved only one type of operations - conversion, said director of the department of licensing and financial recovery of the Central Bank of Russia Mikhail Sukhov, at a meeting with bankers in Bor. There are banks that provide customers with a wide range of services, which include foreign exchange transactions, passed the word Sukhova one of the participants, but there are those that deal almost exclusively foreign exchange, creating an extensive network of exchange offices - they have a small margin, but large volume of transactions and they interfere with living a normal banks. “With this second group, we will fight and in some cases, simply closing” - cut Sukhov.

The bank has additional offices, operational offices, credit and cash offices, the currency can be exchanged in the usual office of a bank, and the form of bank offices in the form of the exchange points may disappear, transfers to another banker, who had listened to an address Sukhova. First, said Sukhov, consumers are now less than 10-15 years ago, use the services of bureaux de change, and secondly, and this is probably a good reason, the client there may simply be deceived. If the exchanger will not, CBR will be better able to control the exchange operations of banks, concluded Sukhov.

idea of closing exchangers few months ago expressed the Russian Central Bank chairman Sergei Ignatiev, remembers one of his friends. But Sukhova can be understood and so that the regulator has decided to gradually move in that direction, rather than cut straight from the shoulder, he says: if the exchange points will expand its services, they can, and do not have to close. Read the rest of this entry »

Markets crumbled before payrolls. Now, following closely the resistance level of 1360 points

After a 3% fall of U.S. stock indices and a 5% price collapse in the “black gold” movement on the Russian stock market down predetermined. As well as the weakening of the ruble. Most surprising is that a strong movement in financial markets occurred before the current data on payrolls, which are key statistics on the U.S. economy. Today, we look forward to the opening of trading in Russia from approximately 1.5% decrease nym on MICEX. Accordingly, this means that today, probably retest the January lows, and the 50-day average of the MICEX Index. If the market goes below these grades, it makes sense to close the “Long” for the majority of “chips”, because Significantly increased risks of continuing down the motion for a further 8%. In addition, today there is a real danger of a new beginning all the way to sweeping wave of forced sales in the market that will accelerate the realization of the negative scenario. We suggest that you be extremely cautious and highly recommended to limit possible losses through the display of stop-loss. Under attack today in the first place will share Metallurgical and Petroleum, as well as the most heavily grown in recent regional telecoms.

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Equity markets are falling, the dollar is rising due to fears of defaults in Europe and new signs of weakness in the U.S. labor market. Investors fear that the markets sooner said goodbye to the financial crisis.

in the U.S. during trading on Thursday, the Dow Jones index fell below the level of 10 000 points and finished the session at the mark at 10 002.18, down 2.6%. Reduced to 268.37 points in the U.S. market has experienced for the first time since April.

In Europe, the hardest hit stock markets of Greece, Portugal and Spain, where the decline reached almost 6%.

Asian markets fall on Friday is about 2,5%, indicates the index MSCI Asia Pacific.

prices oil futures fell nearly 5% in gold - on 4,4%, dramatically cheaper non-ferrous metals.

At the same time, the reduction of risk appetite returns US Treasury fell.

The euro fell at one point in trading Friday to $ 1.3670, having lost 0.4% and reached the lowest level since May. Read the rest of this entry »