International rating agency Standard Poor `s (SP) said on Friday that despite the numerous threats to financial stability, the situation in the public finance of Ukraine in 2010 will gradually improve. Expected GDP growth of 4% and the resumption of cooperation with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in late spring and early summer. Threat to the financial system of Ukraine will be political instability, change of the National Bank and the law “On state social standards and state social guarantees”.

SP

Experts believe that the law will not work because it will increase the budget deficit to 2,5-7% of GDP. At the same time, the remaining amount of the IMF loan in the amount of $ 5,500,000,000 will be able to cover only 5,5% of the budget deficit, and the possibility of attracting other external borrowing is limited. In 2010, Ukraine has to pay a foreign loan to 35.1 billion Japanese yen ($ 392.3 million), and therefore the SP continues to believe that “default Ukraine is not inevitable.”

No 2010 state budget, according to SP, a positive effect on financial stability. “This means that at least during the I quarter of 2010 the new government will be able to make expenditures in its sole discretion within the lower budget costs. In real terms, expenditure may even decline, as estimated NBU, the average inflation this year 14% “- the report says.

first threat PFM SP predicts the spring, due to the increase in payments on Treasury bills. In April the Ministry of Finance to pay the three bonds at 3.7 billion USD, while the lingering political standoff after the election will strengthen tenizatsiyu economy and reducing the tax base. In SP fear “risk increasing pressure on the National Bank”, and that in the Cabinet want to resolve the financial problems due to emissions, while the new head of the NBU could not resist the pressure.
Ukrainian experts believe the threat called SP maloaktualnymi.

“As practice shows, tenizatsiya economy is in a standby political instability, and therefore further tenizatsii fear is not worth it. In addition, legislation to raise the social standards already in force, but this has not led to an increase in budget spending,” - says General Director of the Institute budget and socio-economic research Irina Shcherbina. “In the SP believes that with prudent fiscal policies of all these risks are negligible. We also believe that after the elections the new government must adopt a budget which would suit the IMF, and therefore, support the Pension Fund and Naftogaz Ukraine” will no longer be a large. With the resumption of cooperation with the IMF will be able to unfreeze credit, World Bank ($ 750 million), and these funds should cover the budget deficit “- adds analyst BG Capital Vitaly Vavrischuk. Besides, he said, payments on domestic obligations in 2010, “smooth enough”, while on the outside - very small.

The exam for the new government

participants in the financial press club gathered to discuss economic issues that should decide the new power …

Forex - results of the day
The best market in today”s auction will be oil and gas sector
In the next sessions can rebound to the level of 1375 puntka on MICEX index

U.S. stock markets managed during the bidding to break the negative opening, closing is not a big increase. The situation with the debts of European states and by statistical data indicated the negative start to the day, but after the data on consumer credit, which have demonstrated positive dynamics, shopping has increased, allowing the index to move in the positive zone. On the positive side also became known that the number of people employed on temporary employment contracts has increased as the average workweek, which points to some recovery in the labor market.

Asian stock exchanges today, mostly falling, playing the events of Friday trading in the U.S. and Europe. Part of the market is trying to get into the positive zone thanks batted prices for raw materials.

Russian shares open slightly decrease, while the MICEX index back down to 1345/1340. Now attention is focused on the bidders to events in Europe, news from there can play a decisive role. The dollar continues to strengthen, which will overshadow sites. Market support may have made at the meeting of G7 statements in support of the economy of European countries, as well as new anti-crisis measures. Perhaps that is against this background market will bounce a bit but the growth prospects look dim yet. In the case of rebound goal at the top of the MICEX index - 1370.

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Analyst Ratings

Spain will reform the labor market
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Forecasts of analysts: Today, support for the Russian sites may be a small rebound in the oil market
In the second round of presidential elections in Ukraine leader Yanukovych, Tymoshenko is behind by less than 3%
Today is not expected makrostatisticheskih important U.S. data and the euro
Today the opening of tenders is expected to nearly previous levels close to the Russian stock market
Higher oil prices can support the shares of oil and gas companies and the Russian market as a whole
The external background is neutral for the market of Russia: America closed moderately higher, Asia is trading in different directions
Dmitry Medvedev insists on lowering interest rates for small and medium business

Thus, the note referring to the document “number one”, the analysts, the country”s goal - to gather in 2010 at least 500 million tons of the crop, if it will not interfere with the serious natural disasters. As analysts say, a good grain harvest will strengthen the country”s capacity to overcome the effects of the global financial crisis and will help bring down inflation expectations in the domestic market.

Gross grain harvest in China will not fall below 500 million tons in 2007, when this milestone was reached first in the new century. Before this country was able to reach a level only in 1998, but then keep rising trend failed and soon the grain has gone sour.

To prevent a recurrence of this situation, in November 2009 the State Committee on Development and Reform Commission announced a program aimed at strengthening capacity-building for grain production: the amount of grain harvest in the country by 2015 should grow to 530 million tonnes by 2020 - 550 million and tons more.

As one of the main ways to increase the capacity of the budget subsidies for agriculture. In 2009, allocations from the central budget to provide subsidies to farmers growing grain, purchase of agricultural production, agricultural machinery and elite seeds reached 123 billion yuan a ton. U.S. $ = 6.8 RMB /that 19.4 percent compared with the previous year. Further expansion of the list of grants is expected in 2010.

As no less an important measure in the “number one” be undertaken to increase purchasing prices for grain. As noted, the purchase prices should be today, when the global financial crisis, the risk of a downturn in prices for agricultural products.

In addition, analysts also point to the increased attention the central government on issues related to the improvement of waterworks, capital construction in field, introduction of new varieties of crop products derived from genetic engineering, etc. In such granaries of the country, as the province of Anhui, Shandong and Heilongjiang, have some experience in these areas is already available.

heavy snowfalls that occurred this winter in northern China, experts perceive as being conducive to high yields in the summer season. If no major natural disasters is quite likely to increase grain yield in 2010, experts believe.

“compensation will be paid out of the guarantee fee, which troubled insurer, introduced in the fund when joining the Motor Bureau,” - explained the president MTIBU Vladimir Romanishin. Previously, under the laws of payments from the fund offices were made only in case of bankruptcy of the company.

“This should support temporarily insolvent insurers and their customers. Because payments will be at the expense of the money them1000selves and the UK with their consent, it would not be a violation of law,” - commented the Financial Services Commission Chairman innovation Viktor Suslov.

Recall that when joining the Motor Insurers Bureau to the Fund in the protection of victims from 100 to 500 thousand euros (exchange rate at the time of the contribution). Amount of contribution depends on how many policyholders avtograzhdanki, which annually sells UK. Leaving the ranks of the Bureau of Motor, a company could withdraw their contributions from the fund, the money returned to the insurer within three years from the date of loss of membership in the organization.

With the adoption of a new document has changed. Withdraw money from the fund will be only the UK which are fully paid off with customers on compulsory insurance of civil liability of automobile owners. If the insurer fails to meet obligations, he can either bow out as amended by the fund money forever, or to sign the contract-order, giving MTIBU authority to conduct payments at the expense of the down payment. Prior to this, the insurer will be required to provide written confirmation of the Financial Services Commission that his license is compulsory insurance avtootvetstvennosti suspended or revoked, the auditor”s report, indicating the absence of a company funds, liquid assets, etc., as well as return all unused forms of policies.

Transient option payments from the fund was run-in SC “Avionics”, excluded from the organization in November 2008. “Money insurer we have listed parts. Each subsequent tranche company received after the reporting of the conduct of payments at the expense of the previous tranche,” - said in the Motor Bureau. From now on compensation will be paid by the bureau by the same procedure as all routine payments who remain in the fund money insurer defaulting will not be exhausted.

possible, at least partially pay off with customers probably will use most of the bankrupt companies. “We are already negotiating with the Motor Bureau on this subject. Rather, give them the authority to pay after the counting is completed payables SK Galaxy, including its debt payments under” as well - said in an interview with “k:” The Transitional Administrator JSC “IC” Galaxy “Victor Dolnik.

new procedure of payments will be useful to customers of small UK whose debts do not exceed avtograzhdanke 0,5-1 mln. or companies which had not yet thrown away all the assets.

“I am confident that the guarantee fee would be sufficient to repay obligations avtograzhdanke ASO” Bill of Exchange “(January 21, 2010 Financial Services Commission stopped the operation of all licenses SC, on 22 January the shareholders have decided to eliminate it. - author. ). The amount of debt the company is small, “Promissory note” does not even listed among the debtors MTIBU and timely made all contributions to the funds “, - explained the president of the League of Insurance Organizations of Ukraine (LIOU) Natalia Hudyma.

But hardly holding payments under the guarantee contributions satisfied customer of such large insurers, such as “The insurance tradition. The obligations of the Company for compulsory insurance avtootvetstvennosti MTIBU estimated at 17 mln. Therefore, even if the insurer would agree to repayment of debts due to its funds in the fund for compensation can count only a few dozen customers who have been in the forefront.

Others will have to wait for the formal completion of the bankruptcy of the company. After that, they will be paid compensation by the fund are due to other insurance companies - members of the Motor Bureau.

Tatiana Written

In the Transport Ministry recalled the discomfort flag

The transport department of Ukraine made another attempt to make life easier for owners who use the flag of Ukraine …

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Expert: The use of electronic tickets in Ukraine causes many problems due to inconsistent regulatory framework
Transfer of electronic reporting for business entities on a commercial basis will lead to abuse
Poor Dad

If Ukrainian citizen for five years, monthly postponed for 10% of their salary for deposit in the U.S. …

Today will draw for Euro 2012

in May 2010 will be a re-inspection of Ukrainian producers of poultry products by specialists of the European Commission”s Directorate General for Health and Consumer Protection (SANCO). European experts have already conducted an inspection Ukrainian poultry in June 2009, but their results have not led to the admission of domestic business in EU markets.

At the same time, experts GC Syncom not see the results of last year”s inspection significantly negative. “The comments mainly related to not do business or to animals that are usually very carefully inspected by European officials, and legislative gaps,” - notes APatiota.

Possible lifting of the ban in his opinion, would lead to the allocation of the Agricultural Producers Ukraine”s quota in the European market 100 tons of chicken meat per year (with a total market of about 12 million tons). Given a minimum of 25% difference in price for the product on the domestic and European markets, it also will enhance the profitability of the business. An additional advantage of Ukrainian producers due to geographical proximity is the possibility of supply in the EU expensive fresh chilled meat. Their American and Brazilian competitors are forced to occupy a niche of cheaper frozen meat.
These perspectives allow Ukrainian agricultural sector in an active capacity expansion. One of the most salient examples of this positive trend can be building holding Myronivsky Hliboprodukt “(LSE: MHPC) of the new agro-based, which enables him to increase the production of chicken meat to 770-780 million tonnes (330-340 tonnes now). According to GC Syncom, up to 20% of the production of the complex can be exported to the EU.

“Investing in farmers” production does not go unnoticed and to investors - said A. Patiota. - Capital resources are becoming more affordable even for small farmers. An example of a successful capital raising in the near future may become a private placement group of companies Agroliga “20% of its shares on the court NewConnect Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE) in the III quarter of 2010.

Group (CG) “Syncom” includes investment firm Syncom Capital and asset management company (AMC) Syncom Asset Management.

“Syncom Capital - is one of the oldest investment firms that provide brokerage services on the Ukrainian stocd50k market, services in corporate finance and investment banking. Investment Company was established in 1994, was an active participant in creating the PFTS in 1996 and the Ukrainian stock exchange in 2009, according to stock exchanges, Syncom Capital is among the five largest brokers Ukrainian securities market. Syncom Asset Management has worked in co-investment in Ukraine, successfully managing a closed non-diversified corporate investment fund “Hetman.

Company FinPR - In Ukraine the first specialized company in the field of financial PR and communications consultancy. The company provides comprehensive services for the maintenance of customer information in order to establish his impeccable business reputation, thereby increasing its investment attractiveness.

Banks gives a lift to the business “carrot and stick”

an effort to retain existing customers, legal persons, the banks go to any tweaks - from bonuses to financial sanctions …

The secretariat said the implementation of the general fund budget for the cost of 99,6% in January

scientist noted that t1000he subsequent uncertainty in such matters as the problem of inflation, exchange rate, methods for their regulation, the question of how to influence the money supply and, consequently, the demand will lead to national economic growth by only 2-3 %, which inevitably increase social problems.

“ensures that this growth will be accumulated problems in the social sphere, of consumption. It is about the need to grow by 5-6% as a minimum - only in this case are laid perspective is that over time the accumulated problems can be solved” - noticed Geyets.

According to him, the situation with economic growth through exports and the stimulation of domestic demand through external borrowing, which lasted nine consecutive years, is now impossible.

“Both in 2010 and subsequent years will not work. We must focus on the investment. appears extremely difficult task: how and in what way will appear to invest in Ukrainian economy and what the scenario” - the expert said.

Geyets stressed that now there is a serious task of modernization of the real sector of the economy, because during the entire period of economic growth, this issue has remained out of sight of both domestic and foreign investors.

“Thus, for the current year to lay the foundations of both the modernization of all its components. It would be naive to think that without the formation of development institutions, which are now in Ukraine there, without a clear vision of why and in what way these institutions to apply, we solve these issues, “- the expert said.

“And for this we have a year as a maximum, otherwise we will be doomed again feed back not only in Europe but also among developing countries”, - he stressed.

Geyets convinced that while there is very little reason for a healthy optimism and the problem lies not only in the absence of proper coordination between different branches of government, and that in reality, while “nothing to coordinate.”

“In our country, unfortunately, there is still no systematic and comprehensive vision of what we need to introduce reforms, some macroeconomic, including monetary and fiscal policies to implement,” - he explained.

“There is no need to coordinate without addressing the ideological-political and politico-legal problems in Ukraine today - and this is the main challenge for the next and subsequent post-election months,” - summed up the scientist.

/
Ukraine postindustrial

New Year”s attack on the IMF, aimed at getting an additional $ 2 billion, might seem a critical moment …

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“In the early 90″s, few talked about the risk of commodity redevelopment of Ukraine. Today it is no longer a risk and not a threat but a fait accompli, not causing any discussions,” - states Korablin.

According to the expert, on the eve of the crisis the share of commodities within the domestic industry was 70% against 14,6% of investment goods. Similar relationships are observed in the structure of merchandise exports. Moreover, if in the 80 years it dominated the production of machinery - approximately 37% and the share of ferrous metallurgy was two times less (18%), in the 2005-2008 year have been observed directly opposite proportions: Engineering - 15% black Metallurgy - 40%, says the analyst.

For example, during 1990-2008, the proportion of machinery in the industrial structure of the country has declined by half - from 31 to 14%, while in the steel industry, by contrast, has grown - from 11 to almost 27%.
“Independent Ukraine, it seems, has not realized that its legacy aircraft industry - technological luxury, the right of possession which belongs to only a few countries. And if, contrary to national policy, it is not lost, it was only due mortgaged once the reserve of strength, which is not limitless. Moreover, the domestic aviation industry has long lost the signs of mass production, huddled up to build a few planes a year “, - noted the expert.

Thus an apparent “attenuation” of innovation, notes Korablin. Thus, the associated development of industrial production declined in 2003-2008 tripled.

“While the leading countries see their future with nanotechnology, in Ukraine, it again depends on the coal and iron formations of Donbass and Kryvorizhzhya. At that one hundred years ago, their power reflects the new horizons of the domestic economy, but today - its” post-industrial “past”, - he stressed.

In his view, the legalization of capturing people”s property development of the production has lost all meaning, since its yield did not go to any comparison with the possibility of instant enrichment through the legal expropriation of “orphan” companies.

“domestic economy seems to be fully adapted to the new status of raw materials periphery. At the same time its dynamics rather rigidly tied to movement in world prices for steel, chemical, grain and sunflowers. In this respect, arguments about the economic achievements of today”s political opponents rather conventional. Just one more fortunate, and others - less “- he states.

According Korablina, the deepening of commodity specialization not only binds the Ukrainian economy to the economic cycle, its industrial partners, but also increases the amplitude of its short-term fluctuations. This technology reduces the wilting productive capacity and future opportunities of the country.

“Hope for the foreign investors are unfounded because they are developing their policies, taking into account local priorities. Thus, at the beginning of last year in the structure of foreign direct investment attracted by the years of independence, investment in real esaeftate operations in more than eight times the volume of investment in machinery . What is a good indicator of the magnitude of economic problems to be solved by Ukraine “, - he concluded.

transportation of iron is not expensive, and the handling of more and cheaper …&ba3lt;/p>
Lottery bills - disassembly, plagiarism and money for the athletes …

After the ban on gambling, lotteries are the only legal option for Ukrainians seeking to try luck …

The fall of the European Stoxx 600 index during the week was a record for 11 months
Transfer Rules

Officials from the Education announced new requirements for contractors wishing to learn for free …

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Conference on-line: “The presidential election in Ukraine: the winners and losers”
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The Finance Ministry proposed to increase the VAT rate to 25%

In 4 th quarter 1968 Fitch has a positive rating actions in the banking sector (3 square. 2009: 22) from a total of 126 actions. The 4 square meters. 2009 ratings have been upgraded 19 banks compared with 7 banks quarter earlier. About half of the positive rating action was due to affirmative action in regard to Turkey (”BB” /Stable) rating is 4 square meters. 2009 were placed on the list Rating Watch “positive”, and then increased later in the same quarter. 70% of banks rated by Fitch in the world at the end of 4 square meters. 2009 had a “Stable” outlook.

“Despite improvements in the major developed economies, Fitch expects that the banking system will remain under pressure - said Jerry Roklif, managing director of Fitch”s financial institutions. - In general, for banks is the lag on the recovery of the economy, so as unemployment rates in most major economies have not yet reached the peak, continuing to put pressure on asset quality. But the bulk of the banking systems were able to significantly rebuild its capital base during the year, primarily at the expense of taxpayers, but also increasingly by private capital, which is the main sign of restoration of confidence. ”

total world Fitch downgraded the ratings of 44 banks of 4 square meters. 2009 compared with 41 bank in 3 square. 2009 The number of “negative” forecasts for developed markets declined to 96 by the end of 4 square meters. 2009 from 111 at the end of 3 square. 2009 This decrease was caused mainly by rating outlook revision HSBC Bank plc (”AA”) to “negative” to “Stable” and then change the forecast on ratings group members, as well as the downgrade of a number of Spanish savings banks in the 4 square. 2009 and the subsequent change in the forecast “negative” to “Stable”.

In developing markets also experienced a decrease in the number of “negative” forecasts up to 97 in 4 square meters. In 2009 against 120 in 3 square. 2009 Among the emerging markets, European countries with developing economies hardest hit by the financial crisis. A large proportion of the 97 “negative” forecasts on ratings in emerging markets at the end of 4 square meters. 2009 belonged to the developing markets of Europe (77). Nevertheless, the number of “negative” forecast on emerging markets in Europe declined, mainly as a result of improved operating environment in Russia (”BBB” /forecast “Stable”). Emerging markets in America and Asia also had a reduction of “negative” forecast, mainly due to changes rating outlook of Mexico (”BBB”) to “negative” to “Stable” and the stability of a number of banks in Thailand to a potential deterioration in asset quality.a2c

The stock market capped a week of fall to the levels of the end of December - in the region 1400 points on the RTS
USA: the markets jumped on the “hanging flags” …

This is provided for the NBU Board of January 5, 2010 № 6 “On approval of changes to the activity in Ukraine domestic and international payment systems” (registered in Ministry of Justice of Ukraine - 30 January 2010), which has UNIAN.

“requirements of this provision apply to entities that have concluded agreements on the membership /participation in international payment systems to banks and non-bank institutions, which created a domestic /international payment systems, to legal persons who intend to carry out clearing operations and calculations, to other entities, as well as individuals who are subjects of relationships that arise during the transfer of funds “- the document says. This indicates that the requirement does not apply to payment systems, payment organization which is the National Bank ..

Also, the NBU has provided that he may cancel the registration of the contract of membership /participation in the international payment system, if a legal entity within one year after the registration has not provided services to implement the transfer using the international payment system.

Clause 4 of the National Bank stipulates that it shall enter into force after its official publication (tentatively, 15 February 2010).

Clearing (born clearing) - clearing system, based on the classification of mutual claims and obligations. It is widely used both in domestic and in international payments.

Morning background for the Russian Market today turned out to be extremely negative. Thus, the U.S. stock markets on Thursday continued negative dynamics, major stock indexes declined on average by 3%. S P500 index closed lower by 3,1%. It is better to market the shares of technology companies, worse than the market - paper commodity and financial companies. The negative economic situation spread to Asian markets, where the average reduction of key indices in the morning is more than 2%. On commodity markets, Brent futures fell and traded near $ 72 a barrel, prices of basic metals groups show mixed dynamics.

As expected, the domestic site opened sufficiently serious decline. During the day the market tried to rebound, but after the release of statistics and the opening of overseas sites fall continued. In general it can be noted that the published statistics proved to be better than expected. For example, the U.S. unemployment rate in January fell to 9.7% from 10%, while analysts expected a small increase. Despite the positive job market U.S. markets opened lower, outright breaking the key milestone in the 10000 index DowJ. In general, in my opinion, at the moment investors should prepare for a prolonged correction of the market as a whole, 10-15% from current levels. The impetus for such a correction could be consolidating overseas indices below the key index and a possible drop in oil below $ 60 a barrel mark Brent.

One of the notable events of the outgoing week was the publication of “Severstal production results for the 4th quarter. Thus, the total steel output in October-December increased by 2%, output of rolled stock rose by 1%. Most business segments of the company recorded a moderate growth in production and a gradual shift towards the production of products with high added value. Also note the steady growth in sales prices on average by 10-20% Confident growth both in output and sales prices recorded the mining division of Severstal. Especially marked 16% rise in gold production and 41%-s” off the production of coking coal in the fourth quarter. We estimate published operational results of Severstal as a positive, the company continues to restore capacity utilization, and the main effect of this recovery, we expect to see in 2010. Another positive factor was the growth in sales prices of virtually all products Severstal. We expect that the market will respond positively to the operating statements of the company. Our fair valuation of shares of Severstal at $ 14.3, growth potential - 23%.

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Advertisement week was very volatile, and Russian stock indexes have shown reductions in its follow-up
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In the medium term, the RTS index was stuck in the hallway 1300 -1500 points, today”s value as a 1412 pukto not encouraging