value of the euro on Friday had fallen to a minimum for more than 8 months against the dollar due to concerns that rising budget deficits hurt economic recovery in the euro zone, reported Bloomberg.

Euro completes the fall in the dollar and yen, the fourth straight week amid rising risk of state bonds in Europe and expectations of weak data on industrial production in Germany.

euro has fallen in price on Friday to $ 1.3707 from $ 1.3723 at the end of the previous session in New York. In the course of trading the euro fell to $ 1.3670 - the lowest since May last year.

course of American national currency against the yen has risen by this timeec9to 89.65 yen against 89.05 the previous day.

course the single European currency against the yen rose on Friday to 122.89 yen against 122.20 on the end of the session on Thursday. Read the rest of this entry »

Dow Jones (Dow Jones) the New York Stock Exchange fell 268.37 points (-2.61%) and closed at 10002.18. NASDAQ Index (Nasdaq) fell 65.48 points (-2.99%) and at the level of 2125.43. Index S & Pi 500 (SP 500) dropped to 34.18 points (-3.11%) and at the level of 1063.10. Yield 30-year U.S. government bond is 4.550 (has fallen compared with previous close of 41.770).

index of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange Ksetra DAX (Xetra DAX) fell 138.85 points (-2.45%) and at the level of 5533.24. Index of the London St1000ock Exchange Futsi 100 (FTSE 100) fell by 113.84 points (-2.17%) to close at 5139.31. Index of the Paris Stock Exchange, BTB 40 (CAC 40) dropped to 104.22 points (-2.75%) and at the level of 3689.25.

ECB President Trichet said today that the problems with growing budget deficits, many countries have the euro zone. Trichet also expressed confidence that Greece will strictly follow the approved plan on Tuesday to the crisis and achieve the goal. ECB President welcomed the statements by American officials that a strong dollar remains in the interests of the United States.

Dealers noted that Trichet”s statement is not too reassured investors about the prospects for development countries in the euro area. This is reflected in a significant pressure on risky instruments, a drop in prices on stock markets, as well as lower prices for oil and precious metals.

The euro /dollar continued to fall and reached a level of 1.3726, the minimum in May last year. The euro /yen fell sharply in the U.S. session to a mark of 121.56, the minimum for last year. The fall rate for the day totaled 480 points. Currency Australian dollar /U.S. dollar fell more than 200 points and reached a level of 0.8605. The course of gold dropped for a day on fifty dollars to a mark of 1059.80 dollars per troy ounce.

preliminary value of the index of labor productivity (Productivity) in the U.S. for the fourth quarter was 6.2% (forecast was 6.1%, the previous value of 7.2%). Number of applications for unemployment benefits (Jobless claims) in the United States for the week to 30.01 was 480K (the forecast was 456K, the previous value of 472K). Index of production orders (Factory orders) for December in the U.S. amounted to 1.0% (forecast was 0.4%, revised from the previous value of 1.1% to 1.0%).

Today is scheduled for release the following data:

at 05:00 GMT - Preliminary results of a composite index of leading indicators (Leading indicators composite) in Japan for December (forecast 93.5, the previous value of 90.7);

at 05:00 GMT - Preliminary results of a composite index of coincident indicators (Coincident indicators) in Japan in December (the previous value of 96.0);

at 09:30 GMT - an index of industrial prices “downstream” (PPI Output) in the UK in January (forecast 0.3% per month, 3.7% for the year, the previous value of 0.5% per month, 3.5% for the year);

at 09:30 GMT - an index of industrial prices “out” without taking into account the price of food, alcohol, tobacco and fuel (PPI Output excluding food, drink, tobacco and petroleum) in the UK in January (0.3% forecast for per month, 2.6% for the year, the previous value of 0.7% per month, 2.6% for the year);

at 09:30 GMT - an index of industrial prices “at the entrance” (PPI Input) in the UK in January (forecast 0.2% per month, 6.0% for the year, the previous value of 0.1% per month, 6.9% for the year);

at 10:00 GMT - preliminary value of the consumer price index (CPI) in Italy in January (forecast 0.1% per month, 1.2% for the year, the previous value of 0.2% per month, 1.0% for the year);

at 10:00 GMT - preliminary value of the harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) in Italy in January (the previous value of 1.1% per year);

at 11:00 GMT - Index of Industrial Production (Industrial production) in Germany in December (forecast 0.5% for the month, the previous value of 0.7% for the month, -8.0% per year);

at 12:00 GMT - index of business sentiment (Economic sentiment index) in Canada in January (forecast 10K, the previous value-2.6K);

at 12:00 GMT - unemploymentdb2(Unemployment rate) in Canada in January (forecast 8.5%, the previous value of 8.5%);

at 13:30 GMT - the number of new jobs (Nonfarm payrolls) in the U.S. Read the rest of this entry »

&lt1000;p> dollar and the yen are going to improve from the morning of Thursday, as investors feared a possible slowdown in economic recovery in Asia and the Pacific: Australia”s retail sales unexpectedly declined, while unemployment in New Zealand has jumped up to a maximum of more than 10 years, reported agency Bloomberg.

value of the euro together with the dollar remains at its lowest level in 7 months in the expectation that the European Central Bank will not turn off incentive program on Thursday in connection with the budgetary problems of Greece. The market is concerned that Greece”s fiscal crisis could spread to other countries in the euro zone, including Portugal and Spain.

euro cost $ 1.3886 on Thursday, compared with $ 1.3893 the day before in New York.

dollar exchange rate fell to 90.89 yen from 90.98 yen at the end of the previous session. Read the rest of this entry »

Ukrainian stock market has developed rapidly and the impact on the optimism of investors, supported by positive external news background. However, by the end of trading, investors chose to lock in profits, resulting in several indexes fell back from the “intraday” levels: as a result of the day index of “Ukrainian exchange” has grown on 0,97% - to 1693.55 points, the PFTS index - on 0,61% to 644.21 points.

According to Dragon Capital investment adviser Oleg Dryzhak, after the close of trading in the U.S. and Europe at higher levels on the eve on the background of strong data on sales of homes in the U.S., world markets have enough momentum to active buying and Wednesday. Asian platform in this day”d play the American statistics and positive news about the prospects of growth in China this year.

As the expert noted, higher cost of raw assets and dollar weakness are signs of a revival of investor interest in risk, and any positive news with the intention of market participants to trade shares.

Meanwhile, U.S. markets on Wednesday opened a slight drop due to disappointing quarterly reporting of some major companies and the index of business activity in the U.S. service sector, which was worse than expected.

According Dryzhaka, Ukrainian site on Wednesday opened higher value on Tuesday, but at the end of the trading session began to lose upward momentum due to profit taking by investors after the significant growth in many papers during the day.

analyst predicts that Thursday may take a little profit-taking. In this case the dynamics will be determined as of today the closing of the American sites (which have traded in the “red zone”) and output data at rates in the UK, the eurozone, unemployment benefits and production orders in the United States.

On

“Ukrainian Stock Exchange on Wednesday actively traded stocks, steel elite” - Yenakiyevo and Alchevsk metallurgical works with the volume of transactions amounting to 4.25 million UAH and UAH 3.25 million, respectively. Read the rest of this entry »

U.S. stock indices rose on the results of trading on Monday, more than 1,1% thanks to the good statistics, as well as the expense of positive financial results of Exxon Mobil, reported Bloomberg.

At the same time, quotations of futures on Tuesday show negative dynamics: the March contracts for SP 500 lost nearly 0.15%, for Dow Jones - 0,17%.

costs of the U.S. population in December increased by 0.2%, revenue - by 0,4%, according to the Ministry of Commerce. In December, consumer spending rose a third consecutive month, pointing to the fact that they can make a significant contribution to economic recovery in the coming months, experts say.

In addition, the index of industrial activity in the U.S. (ISM Manufacturing) in January rose to a maximum from August 2004 - 58.4 points, the experts had expected a decline to 55.5 points. Excess index mark of 50 points means increased business activity in the industrial sphere.

“upward trend in the market. There are still good value to grow”, - considers the chief investment officer at Dreman Value Management LLC, David was dozing.

Exxon Mobil”s share price rose by 2,7%, after profits of the largest U.S. oil producer in the fourth quarter decreased not as much as experts had expected, by increasing oil prices and production.

This news risen as the paper Chevron - by 2%.

“The phenomenal corporate profits are moving up market, - said the chief investment officer at Wilbanks, Smith Thomas Wayne Uilbanks. Read the rest of this entry »

Ukrainian stock market closed lower on Monday, helped by ambiguous external background during the day, as well as the sharp correction of the shares in Ukrnafta: as a result of the day index of “Ukrainian Stock Exchange, fell to 0,79% - to 1658.58 points, PFTS index - on 0,63%, to 629.91 points.

told Interfax-Ukraine “investment adviser investment company Dragon Capital” Oleg Dryzhak, Asian markets on Monday have shown mixed dynamics due to the weak closure of the U.S. sites the day before, on Friday, despite record data on U.S. GDP for the fourth quarter (5,7%). The expert stressed that those positive for the economy of data are interpreted by the market, primarily from the perspective of an impending monetary contraction.

However, he said, such sentiments did not prevent some of the key global indexes on Monday to go to the “plus”, which is associated with renewed purchases after the recent “Drawdown” markets.

In addition, in the U.S. went out December”s data on growth in consumer spending and income, which increased by 0,2% and 0,4% respectively, while revenues were above expectations. Pleased investors and business activity index in the ISM manufacturing sector in January, amounting to 58.4 points versus 55.5 points for the experts” forecasts.

positive market added published reports of the largest U.S. oil producer Exxon Mobil, whose profit in the fourth quarter exceeded analysts” expectations.

Dryzhak As noted, overall trading on the European and American exchanges after the growing demand for raw materials and the euro in the afternoon of Monday mostly shifted to the Green Zone. At the same time, the analyst admits “weakening” the indices to close U.S. sites, given the data on the reduction of construction costs (-1.2%).

According Dryzhaka, Ukrainian sites on Monday were under pressure from external negative background, but received little support since the publication of statistics from the U.S., resulting in a roll back from day lows, along with U.S. indices.

As noted analyst investment group “TASK” Vadim Yemets, strong pressure on the Ukrainian stock indicators, on Monday had a sharp decrease in quotations Ukrnafta “- more than 7%. According to him, information that the company collects the register of shareholders for dividends as of January 28, 2010, increased the wave of selling its shares. Read the rest of this entry »

 Now Russia”s stock market and bond there was concern about slowing growth in China, which can strike the most vulnerable point of Russia”s financial sector and the economy - commodity prices. That is the price of oil in Russia depend on both the cash flows of companies and, ultimately, the discount rate. Go is to say that the real picture of China”s economy is probably no one knows, can only roughly assess the current situation. The reason for this is the socialist system of accounting, the quality of financial reporting and transparency in China much like Russia”s third echelon.

Real GDP for the first 9 months of 2009 showed growth at 7.7% during the growth of 9,9% over the same period last year. Dynamics of production on the breakdown of economic activities (industry and construction, agricultural sector, other sectors) shows a similar dynamic. Growth of industry and construction account for 7.5%, slightly yielding to “other sectors” - 8,8%. At the end of 2 quarters of 2009, there has been steady increase in average wage growth rate is 12,4-12,8%. Business Climate Index in various industries on the basis of 4 square. 2008 - 3 quarter. 2009 show a high volatility, but the observed real GDP growth rate.

China

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

Reducing the rate of growth, of course, can cause some suspicion. However, China, despite the growth of domestic demand is still very tied to the U.S. market, respectively, started out of the U.S. economy from the crisis can not inspire optimism. It is unlikely that the Fed would tighten monetary policy before the final withdrawal of the U.S. economy from the crisis, the risks of new U.S. issues in the current situation tend to zero. Continuing high rates of economic growth for China”s political leadership is an essential goal, measures to cool the economy, if accepted, will be local. Chinese bear not particularly frightening, however, we caution against excessive optimism.

Yesterday the Fed gave a slightly more optimistic assessment of the economy and reiterated its intention to complete by February 1, four anti-crisis program lending by the end of March - the program of redemption of mortgage bonds. It is worth noting that the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Thomas Hoenig called for the tightening of monetary policy, in fact it is the first call to “bear” piece. From our point of view, the tightening of monetary policy the Fed and the correction in oil prices this year are unavoidable, we focus in 2010 on the corridor Brent 65-75 dollars /barrel, ie Current oil prices are closer to our upper limit. In terms of discounted cash flows in our corridor Brent 65-75 dollars /barrel. corresponds to the passage of the RTS index in 1800-2000 points.

We believe that Russia”s companies that are tied to the Chinese market as a whole should not expect problems. For investments, we can distinguish Rosneft and to a lesser extent UralKali.

Rating developments affecting Russia”s market

C

 

C

C

 

 

NOTE:

1. most powerful influence on the market have an event with a rating of A events with D rating on our scale, have little influence.

2. In the sections “Macroeconomics” and “Commodity Markets” in column 2 in the brackets can be specified rating of the previous day.
3. down arrow in column 3 indicates the likely negative impact on the market, the arrow “up” - positive /neutral.

FUNDS - moderately negative

Read the rest of this entry »

index of the Tokyo Stock Exchange Nikkei (Nikkei) has grown by 162.21 points (1.58%) and closed at 10414.29. Yield of 10-year Japanese government bonds is 1.310 (increased from the previous closing on 0.005). Index of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange Haeng Seng (Hang Seng) has grown by 277.46 points (1.39%) and is located at 20310.53.

Course

dollar /yen has grown on the Asian session, with the level of 89.84 to 90.36. The euro /yen rose from 125.93 to 126.75 marks. Weakening of the yen helps the growth of quotations on the stock markets. Growing demand for risky instruments is partly due to the fact that the U.S. president Obama in today”s speech marking the anniversary of his tenure, he promised to exert all efforts to revive the American economy, reduce debt and create U.S. jobs.

The euro /dollar fell on the Asian session to a mark 1.3941, lowest since July last year. Supporting the dollar is the fact that one member of the Open Market Committee called for the U.S. Federal Reserve will soon raise key interest rates in the country. At the same time the euro is under pressure due to problems in some European countries with the financing of its debt.

Today is scheduled for release the following data:

at 08:55 GMT - change in the number of unemployed (Unemployment), taking into account seasonal fluctuations in Germany in January (forecast 18K, the previous value-3K);

at 08:55 GMT - unemployment without taking into account seasonal variations (Unemployment rate unadjusted) in Germany in January (the previous value of 7.8%);

at 10:00 GMT - index of business sentiment (Economic sentiment index) in Europe (16) January (forecast 92.5, the previous value of 91.3);

at 10:00 GMT - business climate indicator (Business climate indicator) in Europe (16) January (estimate -1.10, the previous value of -1.22);

at 13:30 GMT - the number of applications for unemployment benefits (Jobless claims) in the United States for the week to 23.01 (forecast 452K, the previous value of 482K);

at 13:30 GMT - an index of orders for durable goods (Durable goods orders) in the U.S. Read the rest of this entry »

Share indexes in Europe falling in late trading on Monday, the fourth consecutive session, which is the longest fall in the past two months, reported Bloomberg.

composite index advanced countries in Europe Dow Jones Stoxx 600 fell from the market opening on 0,5% - to 248.52 points. In the course of trading direction indicator changes at least 18 times. Indices are reduced in 10 of the 18 countries in the region.

negative impact on investor sentiment has a decrease in the Asian markets on the basis of tenders on 25 January, and the strongest since October last year, falling by the United States on the basis of trading on Friday.

In addition, the Swedish Ericsson, one of the world”s largest manufacturers of network telecommunications equipment, in the fourth quarter reduced net income by 82% - up to 725 million kronor ($ 103 million). Analysts on average expected 2.5 billion kroons. As a result, quotes the company”s shares dipped 1.1%.

worst market were shares of Bayer AG, in the course of trading securities pharmaceutical group fell by 1,9%. Bayer announced the suspension of testing a new drug.

At the same time jumped 5.2% share of the Philips - the most significant growth over the last 8 weeks. Read the rest of this entry »

Stock Indexes in Asia fell on Friday, the fifth consecutive day as investors worried that China”s central bank raises interest rates, and new banking regulations proposed by U.S. President Barack Obama will undermine the restoration of the American economy, reports Bloomberg.

Composite stock index MSCI Asia Pacific Asia Pacific lost 1.8% in opening trading, falling to 121.64 points.

Japanese Nikkei 225 index dropped to 2,7%, the Chinese Shanghai Composite - 1,6%%.

Copper and oil are becoming cheaper, the yen strengthened to reduce interest risk, the cost of insuring corporate bonds and default risk rising in Asia1000.

People”s Bank of China in January, raising the profitability of their bills with maturity of 3 months and 1 year, and unexpectedly increased the rate of compulsory reserves on bank deposits by 50 basis points. As economists predict, the Central Bank of China will increase the base interest rate before the end of the first half.

U.S. President proposes to limit the size of financial institutions in the country and the volume of their trade, believing that these measures will limit the risks assumed by banks. Read the rest of this entry »