2010 for the world”s stock markets began on a positive note, but closer to the middle of the month upward trend began to stumble, and then completely switched to a massive sale, with the MSCI World global indicator dropped to 2-month low. Although the favorable macroeconomic news in the course of the month continued to appear (in particular, on the U.S. economy), at some point markets seized the “China syndrome” - fears that China may resort to restrictive measures to avoid bubbles and overheating economy. It was then that investors are-bull, and lay their hands on the accumulated, hoping some time to re-enter the market at the local minima, and the more profit - the greater the desire to have time to fix it, so the most profitable markets last year were now among the main “losers”.

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ETF (Exchange Traded Fund), or an index fund is a financial instrument whose price reflects the value of a stock index, the exchange of goods , currency or index is formed by the issuer”s portfolio.

According to ETF Digest.com, currently there are over 700 different ETF in the U.S., and their number continues to grow. Now you can meet ETF, belonging to different segments of the financial market: the market shares, bonds, commodities (Commodities) and currency. The following table reflects the profitability of the major ETF with the beginning of 2010:

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Source - Reuters (data as of the beginning February)

note that in the new year, we have included in our rating a number of new funds, including those linked to emerging growth markets - Peru, Indonesia and Vietnam.

In January in our rating percentage of funds with positive returns amounted to only about 12%, while loss-making tools with losses of more than 5% was more than half. At the same time last year”s growth leader, a fund linked to Russia”s market is only a slight loss, but a group of Latin American funds bindings, all year long stay in good yield, was now the greatest losses - more than 10%. Brazilian ETF for the monf3eth dipped right on to 13,3% of the pressure of rumors about China and its future deterrent measures. By the way, the tools with links to the Chinese market, too, were at the tail end of our ranking with the loss of 8-9%.

Among the leaders in profitability was to fund the Japanese yen, which could grow on fears about China.

Turkish stock market was one of the few that have retained the leading position in our ranking of profitability. Growth has contributed to news about the increasing rate of the Turkish state bonds by the rating agency Moody”s. Chile Fund in the past month rolled away from historic highs, but resist the temptation to win.

Following a month of early to judge whether there had been a clear trend in the market for the sale of assets in emerging markets. Rather, investors have small local mining on the most promising assets, to create preconditions for further growth. However, fans of “kitaezavisimyh” assets now have a little poosterechsya to avoid the big sale, like January.

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According to information posted on Friday, the U.S. quarterly GDP growth in the IV quarter. 2009 was equal to 5,7% against 2,2% in III kv. PG and the average forecast of in this case 4.7%.

Despite its relatively favorable performance of this indicator, it is worth noting that the increase in GDP of America was in the last quarter to 60% achieved at the expense of recovery - a process that by the end of the year, probably will decline against the background of decreased activity of the measures of state support the economy.

Segment investments “in risk”, may take into account this fact, and the completion last week for him was “bearish”.

Generally speaking, in recent times, the reaction of EUR /USD rate on macroeconomic data has become more “traditional” market has no wins back positive data on the U.S. economy as a factor contributing to increased capital flows to emerging markets and, indirectly, into the European financial system.

Additional negative pressure on the quotations of assets in the event proved, perhaps, news from the International Economic Forum in Davos. On it, in particular, Professor of Economics at New York University, N. Roubini made a prediction about the inevitability of the “second wave” of the crisis, which the source and the most vulnerable to its influence region remains the euro zone.

The head of Royal Dutch Shell Plc P. Возер, noted that this year we again expect rising oil prices, as well as restoring the world economy will increase demand for energy.

Such information is in the amount of growth could lead to market fears of stagflation in the world economy, and so that seems to be already beginning to recoup the leading trading floors.

Chairman of the Board of Directors of Soros Fund Management George Soros has suggested that a viable alternative to the dollar next year will not be, the euro, “their problems”, while the British economy is in worse shape than the U.S. Read the rest of this entry »

 

Thursday, 28 January, stock markets in Europe have demonstrated negative dynamics, with the preponderance in the direction of the bears took place literally in the last hour of trading. , Released in the region, macroeconomic statistics was neutral: index of business climate in the euro area January almost coincided with the forecast, as well as the level of unemployment in Germany. At the same time, the U.S. makrostatistika disappointed - the number of primary applications from unemployed exceeded expectations, and the growth rate of orders for durable goods fell short of forecasts. The speculative component of the bull market has shown character against the background of Barack Obama”s statement that “punish” banks it is not going. Fed”s promise to continue to keep rates at a minimal level during the session supported the buying mood on European markets.

As a result of bidding British FTSE 100 fell by 1.37%, the Swiss SMI fell by 0,47%, French CAC 40 dropped to 1.89%, while the German DAX lost 1.82%. Regional indicator Dow Jones Stoxx 600 has lost 0,82%.

The European financial sector, happy for the “impunity” of American bankers, during the session would add, headed by British bank Barclays, but the closure of lost winnings.
The world”s largest supplier of mobile phones Nokia soared to 9.9% after it reported on the results of operations for the fourth quarter, exceeding forecasts. Nokia”s net profit rose to 576 million euros to 948 million euros ($ 1.33 billion), while sales reached 12 billion euros. Both figures were better than expected due to the fact that Nokia has managed to strengthen its position in the smartphone market.

The world”s largest jeweler Compagnie Financiere Richemont added 1.5% at the auctions in Switzerland against the fact that analysts at Barclays upgraded the rating of its shares to “market level” to “best market”.

Swedish clothing retailer Hennes Mauritz jumped 8.4% after reporting a quarterly publication - the company”s profits reached 6.15 billion kroons, or $ 844 million and exceeded the average forecast of about 1 billion kronor.

Season brings accountability and dimmer surprises - British pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca fell by 4,6%, to account for the past quarter, worse than expected. Net income per share, with some amendments were $ 1.42 and was more than 10 cents worse than expected.

Europe”s largest producer of potash KS lost 3,5% against the background of news that a Canadian competitor and a world leader in the production of potash Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan reported a precipitate quarterly profit by 69%. Sector is experiencing not the best of times because of falling demand and prices.

British rail operator Arriva has moved to 2,9% against the background of news about the possible purchase of French operator of land transportation.

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Tuesday, 26 January, the major stock markets in the European region with a few exceptions, still managed to complete the session in positive territory. First half trading was characterized by a downward trend - investors were crushed by the Chinese government”s decision to restrict lending, as well as the actions of Bank of China and China Construction Bank, which first began to reduce lending. However, investor sentiment has changed dramatically after it became known that the index of consumer confidence in the U.S. rose in January from 52.9 points to 55.9 points, while analysts had expected growth to 53.9 points.

Additional support index was macroeconomic statistics within the region. Preliminary GDP in Britain rose in the fourth quarter on 0,1%, and the IFO index of business optimism in Germany rose in January to 95.8 points from 95.1 points expected by analysts.

As a result of trading a key index of the UK FTSE 100 has become harder to 0,31%, French CAC 40 index gained strength at 0.67%, while the German DAX closed in positive territory as the 0,67%. Regional index Dow Stoxx 600 advanced a 0.4% and closed at a level of 249.28 points. The overall upward trend is not only supported the markets of Austria and Scandinavia.

Swiss pharmaceutical company Novartis reported on a 4% increase in profits nom-up activities in 2009, which reached $ 8,5 billion Thus, the net profit in the fourth quarter jumped 54%. In addition, today it became known that Novartis CEO Mr. Daniel Vasella (Daniel Vasella) will leave his post Feb. 1, but would take his place, Joe Jimenez (Joe Jimenez), who is currently head of the pharmaceutical division. As a result, shares of Novartis added to their asset 2,06%.

Papers of Siemens, Europe”s largest engineering company, “recovered” at 5.14% after it said that net profit in the fourth quarter rose to a maximum over the past two years the size and reach 1.48 billion euros. Operating profit, at the same time, was higher by 11% and amounted to 2.26 billion euros ($ 3.2 billion), surpassing analysts” forecasts of 1.82 billion euros.

A leading European manufacturer of semiconductors STMicroelectronics added to the auction 2,02% of the market capitalization on the background of positive statements of U.S. chip maker Texas Instruments.

Shares of Italian automaker Fiat left in a minus on 0,79%. According to the CEO of the company, the car market of Western Europe narrowed to the current year by 12%, which can lead to delays in launching several new models of Fiat.

Due to cheaper metals at the auctions in London quotes BHP Billiton, Antofagasta, Rio Tinto Group and Xstrata fell to 0,97%, 0,59%, 1,09% and 1,68% respectively.

Values of the basic indexes on closing are resulted in the table:

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macroeconomic data released last Friday, and opening the beginning of the week again were relatively unfavorable for quotations euro character.

Index of the dynamics of new industrial orders in the euro area in November 2009 was -1.5% (g /g) against the expected market increase of the index by 3%. Previous value of this indicator has been revised with a slight increase, up to -14.4% compared to -14,5%.

Today”s statistics calculated February GfK consumer confidence index in Germany has demonstrated reduction of this index to a mark of 3.2 Fri, lowest since last September. The data, however, corresponded to the median estimate.

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Released in last Thursday”s information on the Administration of the planned U.S. legislation limiting investment banking, in particular, preventing them from investing in hedge funds, has caused a new round of investment outflows from the segment of risky investments. A similar reaction when evidence of the beginning of the process of tightening monetary policy of the Chinese authorities. These factors also traditionally apparently, have recently supported the U.S. currency on the FX.

Nevertheless, the rate of EUR /USD, seems still quite steadily quoted above designated them last week support level 1.4030. Probably, the market expects more concrete results of the confrontation of financial and political leadership of the United States and the banking lobby, which, in particular, will showcase the results of this week awaiting a vote in the U.S. Read the rest of this entry »

 
 

Thursday, 21 January, the stock markets of the European region have completed the session in negative territory. Data from the U.S. cast a shadow over the mood of investors - the number of requests for unemployment benefits last week increased from 444 thousand to 482 thousand, while the expected reduction of up to 440 thousand added negative news from the financial sector, according to which the U.S. President, Mr. Barack Obama intends to make a proposal to set limits on the size of banks and their ongoing risk.

 

Macroeconomic data from Switzerland, where the index of economic expectations ZEW investors amounted to 56.2 points in January compared with the previous value of 54 points, failed to support indices. Good reporting Goldman Sachs Group also has brought optimism.

 

 

As a result of trading a key index of the UK FTSE 100 has become easier to 1,58%, French CAC 40 index dipped 1.7%, while the German DAX closed in a minus on 1,79%. Regional index Dow Stoxx 600 has lowered from its asset 1,38% and closed at the level of 252.76 points.

 

 

Europe”s largest manufacturer of navigation systems for vehicles TomTom retreated to 10.59% after a Nokia spokeswoman said that their company provides navigation services to its service Ovi Maps for free. An additional blow to the Securities TomTom was the loss of their rating analysts Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

 

 

Today the media reports appeared that the head of the Greek bank EFG Eurobank Ergasias believes that the first half of 2010 will bring many difficulties to national banks. As a result, quotes, Euroba1000nk, and then by shares of National Bank of Greece and Piraeus Bank have fallen on 5,5%, 2,34% and 3,23% respectively.

 

 

Against the backdrop of a message appears intent President Obama to set limits on the size of banks, shares of Barclays, Commerzbank, Credit Agricole, Deutsche Bank and Societe Generale have become easier to 5,93% 3,81% 3,57% 2,49% and 4.74% respectively.

 

 

Papers of the British company Drax Group, the owner of the largest in Western Europe, power, retreated to 1.44% on the background of lowering their rating analysts Citigroup to “hold” to “sell”.

 

 

French spirits producer Remy Cointreau said about 5,4% by Mr. reducing revenue in the third quarter, which amounted to 226 million euros ($ 319 million) and was worse than analysts” forecasts of 234 million euros. As a result, Remy Cointreau shares fell 1.02%.

 

 

British water companies United Utilities Group has earned at auction 3,24% of market capitalization after it reported that she agreed with the requirements of the regulatory body in respect of tariffs and the use of water resources.

 

 

The second-largest owner of pubs in the UK Enterprise Inns has added to its asset 19,6%. Net profit per pub has declined over the 16 weeks ending Jan. 16 with 4%, while in the fiscal year ending in September, with the decline was 8%.

 

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Tuesday, January 19, the major stock markets of the Asian region have shown mixed dynamics with a predominance of negative component. Investors are concerned that the upcoming reporting of large companies would be worse than expected. News from Japan Airlines made its negative contribution, and a decline in consumer confidence in Japan has gained pessimism.

Consumer confidence in Japan fell in December to 6-month low, reaching 37.6 points compared with 39.5 points a month earlier.

As a result of trades Japanese Nikkei 225 index fell 0.83%, Chinese CSI 300 has become harder to 0,19%, while Australia”s SP /ASX 200 went in a minus on 1,02%. Regional indicator MSCI Asia Pacific has lowered from its asset 0,4%, to close at a mark of 125.73 points.

The main event in Japan was the message from Enterprise Turnaround Initiative (Corporation for the recovery of business) that Japan Airlines Japan Airlines filed an application to the Tokyo court on recognition itself bankrupt. At the same time, JAL will be allocated 900 billion yen, and the company”s creditors will forgive her debt of 730 billion yen.

Once the analysts at Barclays Capital said that sales of Japanese banks from lending could decline, shares of Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group retreated 2.4%. Quotations Australian bank Commonwealth Bank of Australia and Westpac Banking, in turn, dropped by 2,4% and 1,2% respectively. Market participants are awaiting reports from a U.S. bank Citigroup, which will present its results before the opening of trading in the U.S..

Against the background of depreciation of the dollar against the yen have been selling the securities of Japanese exporters of cars and electronics. For example, shares of the world”s largest automaker Toyota Motor “thinner” at 1,2%, and Canon quotes left in a minus on 1,4%.

Awkwardly formed session for securities of technology companies - to blame the expectations of the forthcoming reporting IBM. Inotera Memories, Nanya Technology and Powerchip Semiconductor abated from its asset 6,3%, 6% and 6.8% respectively.

A leading South Korean steel maker Posco said that the head of Berkshire Hathaway, Mr. Warren Buffett plans to increase its stake in the company. As a result, quotes Posco rose by 1%.

The increased rating analysts Nomura Holdings shares
Japan”s largest electronics maker Hitachi c “neutral” to “buy” the paper companies reached a maximum in the last two and a half months in the value of 303 yen, adding to its asset during the session 2.7%.

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Monday, January 18, the major indices of European stock markets showed positive dynamics on the background of the increased cost of metals. Pleased investors and news on the UK housing market. Thus, according to the agency Rightmove, requested the sellers price of housing in the country in January compared with the previous month increased by 0.4% due to the fact that the volume of demand for new homes over the period exceeded the supply.

As a result of trades regional index Dow Jones Stoxx 600 added 0.69%. The British FTSE 100 gained strength at 0.72%, the Swiss SMI rose by 0.42%, while the French CAC 40 rose to 0.58%. Leader of growth was the Scandinavian OMX Nordic 40, an increase of 0,78%.

Could not complete the session in the Green Zone Greek ASE index on the background of the problems with the budget deficit, the amount of which in 2009 may reach 12.7% of GDP. Quotes the country”s largest cement manufacturer Titan Cement fallen to 7,91%, while the market capitalization of Piraeus Bank decreased by 4.53%.

Shares of British confectioner Cadbury “recovered” at 1.76% after it became aware of the intention to raise Kraft proposed purchase price of shares of 771 pence for each to 820-850 pence.

As leaders of growth were mining companies, which managed to increase market capitalization on the background of the increased cost of metals. Thus, quotes BHP Billiton and Anglo American climbed 1,47% and 3,18% respectively, while shares of Antofagasta and Xstrata moved to 1,46% and 2,36%.

Papers of the world”s largest supplier of dedicated telephone network Alcatel-Lucent lost 1,72% of the value after the Unicredit analysts lowered their rating to “hold” to “sell”.

Shares Cie. Financiere Richemont strengthened to 3.15%. The world”s largest manufacturer of jewelry reported on the revenue growth for the three months ending Dec. 31 by 2% to 1.59 billion euros ($ 2.3 billion), with an average forecast of analysts at 1.51 billion euros.

Quotations world”s largestcosmetics manufacturer L”Oreal rose by 2,1% against the background of recommendations for improving securities companies specialists Deutsche Bank.

Papers of British Airways “recovered” at 1,14%. Analysts Credit Suisse Group raised the rating of the shares of the third-largest airline in Europe to “better market.”

Values of the basic indexes on closing are resulted in the table:

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Since our first observation MSCI Malaysia index fund is almost 5 months of working out the bullish outlook and did not show significant signs of reversal. During this time, the yield on the instrument was about 23%. However, in the last 3 weeks the market due to many factors began to lose focus, and the uptrend has come under question. Accordingly, it is necessary to determine whether it makes sense now to record profits on the fund, or a false alarm.

on the daily chart we see that the price has broken down recently, the extreme of the Fibonacci fan lines, median line fan Gunn as “surrendered without battlefield. This gives a hint that the medium-term trend reversal may be already in motion. Fibonacci Retracement Levels indicate the goal of reducing at $ 10,1.

Source - Reuters

system indicators Ichimoku makes clear the following:

• uptrend is lost, the market went into the channel (the price fell in the “cloud” Line Tenkan Sen moves almost horizontally);
• signals are available for sale and signs of trend reversal (line Chinkou Span crossed the price down, the price dropped below the line Kijun Sen);
• on the “cloud” the level of support for $ 10,3, resistance - $ 10,7. Read the rest of this entry »

 

index fund for gold Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD), administered by the company SPDR, after a significant drop in the second half of 2008 demonstrates the positive trend (Fig. 1). In early October, stock prices have managed to overcome a maximum of 2008 at $ 100.58 and set a new record at $ 119.57.

On the weekly chart in the last days of 2008 moving average with a period of 8 crossed the longer moving average with a period of 21 upwards (Fig. 1), which signals an uptrend. After a narrow Bollinger band (Fig. 1) diverged, indicating a rather dynamic movement in the direction of the trend.

 
Fig. 1

Source: Reuters

Lines of the trend indicator MACD on the weekly chart (Fig. 2) are sufficiently far from 0 and have begun a rapprochement, suggesting a possible reduction in the cost index fund. However, the signal for sale in this case will serve as a line crossing indicator.

Indicators directed change DI and-DI (Fig. 2) on the weekly chart are still quite far from each other, but, as the line MACD, are aimed at rapprochement. Nevertheless, the line lies above the DI-DI, and the rate of the probable direction of ADX has only slowed the pace of growth, ie a rising trend on the weekly chart is saved.

Oscillator RSI on the weekly chart (Figure 2) came out of the overbought zone and is directed downward, which may signal a reduction in the cost index fund. However, in this case a stronger signal to the sale would be a form of “double peak” in the RSI.

Fig. 2

Source: Reuters

On the daily charts exponential moving averages between 21 and 55 (Fig. 3) last clashed in the second half of July 2009, with a faster moving average with a period of 21 upwards crossed the moving average with period 55, by filing with the signal to buy. At the moment considered indicators try to get close and have to cross in the opposite direction, in which case verifying other tools oftechnical analysis would be to open a sell position. Read the rest of this entry »