The Russian stock market on Friday, quickly retreated down and the RTS index lost 3.55%, falling to 1,411.14, while the MICEX index lost 2.88% to 1,355.64. The situation on foreign markets is haunted by the Russian players. Problems of the European powers (Spain, Greece, Portugal and Italy) signal that the world economy is far from recovery. Besides macroeconomic data provide indirect confirmation of this, as in Germany, industrial production unexpectedly dropped, and the U.S. labor market remains difficult situation, because the unemployment rate fell against the backdrop of declining employment outside of agriculture. The dollar continues to exert pressure as the stock and commodity platforms. As a result of serious sales were observed in the papers of steel and oil companies. In general, the negative trend was observed in all sectors, in pursuit of the other Friday off VTB, which in the previous session, rose against the general trend. Nevertheless, and this time turned out to be paper, heading into the top, so the shares of Rostelecom was demand after reports that the paper company to be placed in the western areas after the consolidation of the assets on the basis of Svyazinvest Rostelecom. European stocks Friday continued the site to lose weight. In the foreground are still difficulties associated with the state debt and budget deficits in countries like Italy, Portugal, Spain and Greece which make a major contribution (about a quarter) in the value of the euro area GDP. In addition, statistics are not provided grounds for optimism that has added to the sales markets. Reports of companies and their predictions were largely negative, adding more negative emotions. Desheveyuschee raw materials has led to the collapse of securities of mining and energy companies.

U.S. stock markets managed during the bidding to break the negative opening, closing is not a big increase. The situation with the debts of European states and by statistical data indicated the negative start to the day, but after the data on consumer credit, which have demonstrated positive dynamics, shopping has increased, allowing the index to move in the positive zone. On the positive side also became known that the number of people employed on temporary employment contracts has increased as the average workweek, which points to some recovery in the labor market.

Asian stock exchanges today, mostly falling, playing the events of Friday trading in the U.S. and Europe. Part of the market is trying to get into the positive zone thanks batted prices for raw materials.

Russian shares open slightly decrease, while the MICEX index back down to 1345/1340. Now attention is focused on the bidders to events in Europe, news from there can play a decisive role. The dollar continues to strengthen, which will overshadow sites. Market support may have made at the meeting of G7 statements in support of the economy of European countries, as well as new anti-crisis measures. Perhaps that is against this background market will bounce a bit but the growth prospects look dim yet. In the case of rebound goal at the top of the MICEX index - 1370.

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Clients bursting SC will be able to pay for avtograzhdanke, without waiting for the official bankruptcy of companies. Last week came into effect changes to the Status of “The Fund for the victims.” According to the document Motor (Transport) Insurance Bureau of Ukraine (MTIBU) will hold the payment instead of facing financial problems of insurance companies.

“compensation will be paid out of the guarantee fee, which troubled insurer, introduced in the fund when joining the Motor Bureau,” - explained the president MTIBU Vladimir Romanishin. Previously, under the laws of payments from the fund offices were made only in case of bankruptcy of the company.

“This should support temporarily insolvent insurers and their customers. Because payments will be at the expense of the money them1000selves and the UK with their consent, it would not be a violation of law,” - commented the Financial Services Commission Chairman innovation Viktor Suslov.

Recall that when joining the Motor Insurers Bureau to the Fund in the protection of victims from 100 to 500 thousand euros (exchange rate at the time of the contribution). Amount of contribution depends on how many policyholders avtograzhdanki, which annually sells UK. Leaving the ranks of the Bureau of Motor, a company could withdraw their contributions from the fund, the money returned to the insurer within three years from the date of loss of membership in the organization.

With the adoption of a new document has changed. Withdraw money from the fund will be only the UK which are fully paid off with customers on compulsory insurance of civil liability of automobile owners. If the insurer fails to meet obligations, he can either bow out as amended by the fund money forever, or to sign the contract-order, giving MTIBU authority to conduct payments at the expense of the down payment. Prior to this, the insurer will be required to provide written confirmation of the Financial Services Commission that his license is compulsory insurance avtootvetstvennosti suspended or revoked, the auditor”s report, indicating the absence of a company funds, liquid assets, etc., as well as return all unused forms of policies.

Transient option payments from the fund was run-in SC “Avionics”, excluded from the organization in November 2008. Read the rest of this entry »

Statistics did not help

Morning background for the Russian Market today turned out to be extremely negative. Thus, the U.S. stock markets on Thursday continued negative dynamics, major stock indexes declined on average by 3%. S P500 index closed lower by 3,1%. It is better to market the shares of technology companies, worse than the market - paper commodity and financial companies. The negative economic situation spread to Asian markets, where the average reduction of key indices in the morning is more than 2%. On commodity markets, Brent futures fell and traded near $ 72 a barrel, prices of basic metals groups show mixed dynamics.

As expected, the domestic site opened sufficiently serious decline. During the day the market tried to rebound, but after the release of statistics and the opening of overseas sites fall continued. In general it can be noted that the published statistics proved to be better than expected. For example, the U.S. unemployment rate in January fell to 9.7% from 10%, while analysts expected a small increase. Despite the positive job market U.S. markets opened lower, outright breaking the key milestone in the 10000 index DowJ. In general, in my opinion, at the moment investors should prepare for a prolonged correction of the market as a whole, 10-15% from current levels. The impetus for such a correction could be consolidating overseas indices below the key index and a possible drop in oil below $ 60 a barrel mark Brent.

One of the notable events of the outgoing week was the publication of “Severstal production results for the 4th quarter. Thus, the total steel output in October-December increased by 2%, output of rolled stock rose by 1%. Most business segments of the company recorded a moderate growth in production and a gradual shift towards the production of products with high added value. Also note the steady growth in sales prices on average by 10-20% Confident growth both in output and sales prices recorded the mining division of Severstal. Especially marked 16% rise in gold production and 41%-s” off the production of coking coal in the fourth quarter. We estimate published operational results of Severstal as a positive, the company continues to restore capacity utilization, and the main effect of this recovery, we expect to see in 2010. Another positive factor was the growth in sales prices of virtually all products Severstal. We expect that the market will respond positively to the operating statements of the company. Our fair valuation of shares of Severstal at $ 14.3, growth potential - 23%.

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Domestic market: “began to pray for health, finished lower”
The dynamics of the bond market this week can be assessed as mixed. End of tax payments and the growing cost of oil have supported the positions of the Russian ruble and money market rates, which generally boosted the attractiveness of ruble-denominated debt instruments. In the first half of the week we saw the growth of trading activity and the predominance of buyers in the market. However, relatively rapid deterioration of conditions in the western areas has been painfully felt in the domestic market. Reducing Friday until the character is an aggressive sell-offs, but if the correction in external markets will be prolonged, the ruble may be under strong pressure, which in turn eliminates all the attractiveness of the ruble bond market.

The biggest turnover grew Zenit-5 (0,58%), Moskva61 (0,37%), CFR-12 (0,3%), Moskva62 (0,18%), VTB-5 (0, 1%). Decreased following quotation of securities - Gazpromneft-3 (-0.02%), VTB-6 (-0.02%), MDM-BW 1 (-0.05%) CFR-10 (-0.05%) GazpromA9 (-0.16%), Moskva56 (-0,19%), Mechel-5 (-0.25%), NLMK BW-5 (-0.48%), Rayffazb-4 (-0.54% ), System-3 (-0.63%), TsentrTel-5 (-0.67%), System-2 (-0.69%).

Completion tax period, a favorable impact on the level of ruble liquidity. Within 7 days the total funds on correspondent accounts and deposits with Central Bank grew 15,4% to 995.6 billion rubles. on the morning of Friday, January 22. The conjuncture of the money market remains favorable: rates Mosprime O /N - 4,19%, 1M - 5,28%, 3M - 5,93%. NDF curve looks comfortably - 1M - 4,96%, 3M - 5,44%, 1Y - 6,19%. According to the results of the second half Friday during the week the dollar grew by 0,22% to 30.415 rubles. And the euro “has fallen in price on 0,96% to 41.741 rubles. Last week, the currency basket exchange rate to the ruble fell by 0,37%, and amounted to 35.514 rubles.

Market US Treasuries and Eurobonds: data for the January unemployment in the U.S. well-received
Key for investors unemployment figures for January were met1000by investors with a moderate optimism, as despite the decline in jobs for 20 thousand (expected to increase by 15 thousand), the aggregate unemployment rate fell to 9.7% (forecast - 10%). In addition, a good signal has been reported that the average working week, along with the number of employees on temporary contracts has increased. Yields on long-releases increased during the week in the range of 4-8 bp - UST-2 - 0.803% per annum (-1 bp to Thursday), UST-10 - 3.627% per annum (2b.p.), UST-30 - 4.575% per annum (2b.p.). Before the opening of markets in the U.S. on Friday, we see the market selling intensified US Treasuries. In the segment of Russian Eurobonds remains low activity - Rus-30 for a week “subsided” on 0,27% of the price to 112.18% of par, the yield of the issue is 5.467% per annum (23 bp). Spread between the Rus-1930 - UST-1910 has narrowed by 1 bp to 184 bp

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All is lost - fell contango!

Now a lot of confusion around. Former U.S. president confuses Iraq and Iran, the other day, General of Romanian soldiers mistakenly sent to Tahiti in French Polynesia instead of Haiti … I have a version that investors are passionately want to buy shares, but confused the button to “sell” and “buy”, so the market is weak. Now let”s talk seriously. By 16.40 the MICEX index fell by 2.8% (up to December”s levels), but this is not a reason for the total pessimism. Fall is a margin papers of the first echelon, second echelon (Energy, Telecoms) purchase there. In the first echelon in the shares of Gazprom”s proposal to buy at 176 were not realized - and this is positive. According to Gazprom is a positive news background (”Investor Day”). The acts of Rosneft, a substantial decline -2.8% and at the same time there is a big buyer and at times exposes to buy (size of 200 000 - 300 000 pieces). From this I conclude that the spot demand in the first echelon is also present and all that, amid a sharp decrease in unemployment in the U.S. (in January).

Giving forecasts for next week - a thankless task, but I would venture to suggest that in the case of penetration bears support 9950 index DJIA, domestic MICEX index continued its decline to the level of support for 1,310 points. However, this option, I think it unlikely, because oil quotations are now approaching the support of $ 72.4 per barrel, where a suspension reduction. Contango - the excess of the June futures price of WTI crude futures in relation to the March today fell from yesterday 2.02% to 0.97% (below 1.98% in the last two months is not omitted) and indicates the strength of a bear sentiment in the oil market , but I expect a rebound of oil upward. Dynamics of oil and gas sector would be “better than the market”.

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Claus, essentially spoiled an already poor harvest vegetables Borschovo group, played into the hands of traffickers, who knew how to preserve fruit in the presentation. Last week potatoes, carrots, cabbage and onions have risen in price by 0,5-1 UAH /kg and the spring will add a minimum of 10 kopecks. weekly. The opportunity earn already interested importers, hastily forged scarce supply of vegetables from neighboring countries.

Ukraine is rapidly becoming more expensive vegetables. The highest price shock occurred in the so-called Borshchov group (potatoes, cabbage, carrots, onions), which last month added to the cost of 20-30% and appears to be in the coming months, the dynamics will continue. For example, as of January 22 on the wholesale market SHUVAR (Lvov) potatoes sold for 3 UAH /kg, which is 50 kopecks. more expensive than the previous week, and 1,15 UAH. - Less than a month ago. Cabbage week add 1 UAH /kg - to 4 UAH /kg. A month ago, according to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, the national average price for white did not extend beyond 2,35 UAH /kg. For the carrot ask 4 UAH /kg instead of 3 UAH. a week ago and 2,5 UAH. In December, for the bow - UAH 3,6-4. instead of 3,2 UAH /kg.

representative of IFC, realizing the project in Ukraine for the development of vegetable production, Fedor Rybalko said that in the next couple of months, a trend rise in price of vegetables weekly from Borschovo set to 10-50 kopecks /kg is likely to continue, and by April could even intensify . As a result, by the end of the season fruit has all chances to grow by more 1,5-2 times.

Among the reasons for the price frenzy Rybalko calls several factors. This year”s vegetable harvest Borschovo group in the country at 15-20% lower than in the past. Due to overproduction and lower prices for vegetables in 2008 (0,8-1 UAH /kg), many farmers in the last season abandoned unprofitable products. As a result, the proposal on the market declined significantly.

market participants expected the imbalance will smooth over low consumption. In the wake of the crisis, they expected the decline in sales of at least 10%. Practice has shown that pessimistic expectations are not met. Other products have risen in price far more disruptive, so the Ukrainians have become relatively inexpensive vegetables, even more than before the crisis. Read the rest of this entry »

Markets crumbled before payrolls. Now, following closely the resistance level of 1360 points

After a 3% fall of U.S. stock indices and a 5% price collapse in the “black gold” movement on the Russian stock market down predetermined. As well as the weakening of the ruble. Most surprising is that a strong movement in financial markets occurred before the current data on payrolls, which are key statistics on the U.S. economy. Today, we look forward to the opening of trading in Russia from approximately 1.5% decrease nym on MICEX. Accordingly, this means that today, probably retest the January lows, and the 50-day average of the MICEX Index. If the market goes below these grades, it makes sense to close the “Long” for the majority of “chips”, because Significantly increased risks of continuing down the motion for a further 8%. In addition, today there is a real danger of a new beginning all the way to sweeping wave of forced sales in the market that will accelerate the realization of the negative scenario. We suggest that you be extremely cautious and highly recommended to limit possible losses through the display of stop-loss. Under attack today in the first place will share Metallurgical and Petroleum, as well as the most heavily grown in recent regional telecoms.

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scoop up profits from the stock cup of “Severstal” y “bulls” will not work

market yesterday received a double negative in the form of declining oil futures and declining stock price on world markets. This is overlaid on the inflated expectations of bulls, who believed that in February, will derive profit from the stock cup broad spoons. The trader Jesse Livermore said that “for the stock market there is only one side, it is not” bull “or” bear “and the correct side.” He talked that way, because I did not hear yesterday”s statement the ECB head Trichet, who warned that failure in terms of retention deficits at low levels may cause the ECB to raise interest rates sooner. The last tender for the ECB to provide liquidity for a period of six months is scheduled for March, after which the bank will not lend for longer than three months (Prime-Tass). In short, if Jesse Livermore was able to hear yesterday”s statement by Trichet, then he probably would have said that the right side is now bearish.

shares of Severstal yesterday showed the dynamics of the falling ax - 4%. In this action has accumulated a lot of technical issues in a bearish divergence on the daily charts on all indicators: MACD, MASD - histogram, MFI, RSI. Short-term upward trend, formed 01/27/1910, punched down. Option technical poskoka to the level of 358 remains, but the wide scoop scoop profit of stock glass bulls will not work - instead of profit in a glass of poisoned water.

We look forward to opening the market with a demotion. Still, considering as a basic option to reduce the MICEX index to support the band 1360 - 1370 points. Oil traders do not expect the growth of oil. Contango - the excess of the June futures price of WTI crude futures in relation to March, recently fell to 2%. The graph of oil (WTI) is the magic level of support for $ 72,4 of which the first to write a technical analyst Stephen Cox of Dow Jones (before the recent collapse). Near this level can be expected to stabilize oil prices. And today the best position expectant. Do not chase the amount of transactions - need to chase for profits!

Successful trades!

&lta48;/Tr>

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rectify the situation can only report on the U.S. labor market

In Russia the market at the opening of the trading session sale, which began the day before, will continue. Weak labor market statistics for the United States, published yesterday, caused a massive sale on world stock markets. On Russia”s market “bear” sentiment fueled and oil prices, which are actively declined to becoming strong U.S. dollar. Before the opening of Russia”s market today, the negative signals coming both from global stock markets and the market of raw materials. American market on the session seriously subsided, the Dow Jones index lost 2,61% and the index S P500 - 3,11%. Completion took place at the lows of the day, Dow Jones has not kept psychologically significant level of 10000 points, breaking it down the curtain bidding. U.S. index futures traded lower than the values for which closed trading on Russia”s market, which also contributes to the continuation of sales in the beginning of the session. Futures on the S P500 index went down from the mid-term upward channel, pushing support for the 1050 Settlements.

also supports penetration down the American market indicators of Russia”s pressure would have the situation in the currency market. Pair EUR /USD failed to keep support 1,38, confidently punched her before. Thus, the pair had gone below the year lows last year, down to the local maximum in the spring of last year. At strengthen the dollar futures for Brent crude continued to fall after the closure of Russia”s market.

At the Asian markets also prevail sale. ADR on shares of Russian issuers closed below the local market, which also contributes to the opening of Russia”s market with a gap down. Strong support of the MICEX index may be at least one year - 1363 points, to which Russia”s market can go, if in emphasis of the domestic market will not be formed corrective mood. In the first half of the session, improving moods can be associated only with a technical rebound, while the second - will read out a block of statistics on the U.S. labor market, which will define the mood in the near future. Projections for the labor market is rather optimistic: the unemployment rate expected to remain at the same level of 10%, and the number of jobs outside of agriculture will increase.

In the first half of the session, the sale of touch all sectors of Russia”s market. Stocks of raw materials companies will come under pressure from falling prices for oil and metals, while shares of the banking sector - will follow the general negative sentiment, reigning in global stock markets. Rosneft can test at least one year - 227,8 rubles. Who can stop the sale.

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MICEX index consolidates near the level of 1420 points. Here, he can stay until tomorrow statistics on the labor market in the U.S.

consolidation of the market after rising earlier in the week continues. The MICEX index falling to within 1% against the corresponding decrease in quotations of oil futures. Similar dynamics and on the European stock markets (DAX -0.5%, FTSE -0.8%). In general, an auction, as we expected, pass quietly, without any sudden movements. After declining in the first hour of trading, the MICEX Index is held at the level of support for 1420 points. Almost all blue chips today in the red, the major names (Gazprom, Lukoil, Sberbank, MMC Norilsk Nickel and Rosneft) lose about 1%. More confidently look the producers of precious metals (gold and Polymetal Polyus) despite a decline in gold prices, as well as VTB and Severstal - the papers in a symbolic plus in the moment. Afte1000r several days of good growth pays for itself in the fixing of profit regional telecoms (quotations on individual securities” prosedyayut “up to 4%).

There are no new ideas today did not appear. Anyway, the news background is absolutely neutral and unsaturated. Of the noteworthy developments today to select the ECB meeting and the subsequent press conference of his head, and go at 18.00 Moscow time data on factory orders in the U.S. (forecast 0.5%).

We expect that by the end of today”s trading is waiting for us neutral dynamics of auction. The most important figures - the January payrolls - will come tomorrow evening. So look forward to keeping stock indexes near current levels during the day, although do not rule that could increase sales, triggered by the closure of long positions, the most cautious player to exit statistics.

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