index fund for gold Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD), administered by the company SPDR, after a significant drop in the second half of 2008 demonstrates the positive trend (Fig. 1). In early October, stock prices have managed to overcome a maximum of 2008 at $ 100.58 and set a new record at $ 119.57.

On the weekly chart in the last days of 2008 moving average with a period of 8 crossed the longer moving average with a period of 21 upwards (Fig. 1), which signals an uptrend. After a narrow Bollinger band (Fig. 1) diverged, indicating a rather dynamic movement in the direction of the trend.

 
Fig. 1

Source: Reuters

Lines of the trend indicator MACD on the weekly chart (Fig. 2) are sufficiently far from 0 and have begun a rapprochement, suggesting a possible reduction in the cost index fund. However, the signal for sale in this case will serve as a line crossing indicator.

Indicators directed change DI and-DI (Fig. 2) on the weekly chart are still quite far from each other, but, as the line MACD, are aimed at rapprochement. Nevertheless, the line lies above the DI-DI, and the rate of the probable direction of ADX has only slowed the pace of growth, ie a rising trend on the weekly chart is saved.

Oscillator RSI on the weekly chart (Figure 2) came out of the overbought zone and is directed downward, which may signal a reduction in the cost index fund. However, in this case a stronger signal to the sale would be a form of “double peak” in the RSI.

Fig. 2

Source: Reuters

On the daily charts exponential moving averages between 21 and 55 (Fig. 3) last clashed in the second half of July 2009, with a faster moving average with a period of 21 upwards crossed the moving average with period 55, by filing with the signal to buy. At the moment considered indicators try to get close and have to cross in the opposite direction, in which case verifying other tools oftechnical analysis would be to open a sell position.

 Fig. 3

day

Source: Reuters

Bollinger Bands (Fig. 3) disagree, however, on the daily charts we see the movement of prices below the median line towards the lower boundary of the indicator. Most likely the prices of the index fund approach the bottom line of the Bollinger and then turn around and go up. At this point drop for some time suspended support allocated in Fig. 3 fatty blue line.

Trend indicator MACD on the daily chart (Fig. 4) indicates a decline. He crossed the line fourth day of December away from zero and at the moment continues to move in one direction. Indicators directed change DI and-DI (Fig. 4) on the daily chart after crossing the seventh December diverged. Line-DI is above the DI, which is a signal to sell. At the same time, the rate of decline of the indicator probabilistic orientation ADX has slowed, but a turn yet. In the case of intersection of lines DI and-DI and the ADX reversal can be open long positions. Relative Strength Index RSI on daily charts (Fig. 4) is directed downward, and the slow stochastics (% K and% D) (Fig. 4) move to oversold, confirming previous findings about the fall in prices of the index fund for the gold in the short run.

Fig. 4

Source: Reuters

As a result of technical analysis can be concluded that in the medium term index fund for gold Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD), administered by the company SPDR, most likely, will continue the upward momentum, the purpose of which is $ 117-120 (the upper limit of the rising corridor, isolated in Fig. 3 blue line). Nevertheless, the indicators on daily charts indicate a decrease in the short term. Therefore, we recommend to postpone purchases index fund until the relevant signals on daily charts.

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