January 22nd, 2010
make long-term projections on the eve of the presidential elections - a thankless task. Yet the picture of the future into a more comfortable feel in the present, writes “Komsomolskaya Pravda”.
utility tariffs
no secret that the issue of gas prices and utility bills in our country has always been more political than economic plane. Therefore, prices for natural gas will depend on how to behave in the new president.
On the one hand, all the politicians now say that will be able to keep prices at a level of 2009, but the press gets the information that the government is going to significantly raise the price of gas for households and businesses Teplokommunenergo. This requires Ukraine IMF. According to the latest information, from April 1, July 1 and October 1, gas will rise in price by 25%. Maybe it is a duck, but in the autumn, many politicians said that the gas was more expensive on a quarterly basis by 20% from 1 October. But before the elections, no one dared to raise prices. Supposedly this is why the IMF and Ukraine refused to the next tranche of the loan.
If this increase happens, the price of blue fuel to the end of the year would double.
Naturally, in such a situation, prices for hot water and heating in apartment buildings, too, will not stand still. However, each region will independently establish these rates - depending on the greed of local authorities and the quality of municipal services in the region. If now in most cities for a two-room apartment to pay rent at least 250 UAH. month, by the end of the year ready to spread no less than 400 UAH.
electricity prices for the population will also increase. Some analysts do not exclude the growth rates of 70% by year end.
world will live from hand to mouth
Before the New Year prices rose by almost all foods. This tradition is observed every year, but in 2010 after the holidays the price will not go down.
Milk and dairy products rise in price for three consecutive months. Experts say, the milk will rise in price until the end of March. Meat prices will rise by no less than 10%. January will be the last month, when I can buy a relatively inexpensive sugar. As we have previously mentioned, its value in the world continues to rise, while in Ukraine, there has been shortage of this product. If you have a sweet tooth, you better buy it at 7 hryvnia now. By the end of spring - early summer, its price can be doubled, as was the case in 2009.
continue to appreciate Ukrainian vegetables. But such seasonal factors, we have become accustomed. Worse yet, the products begin to rise in price and in the world. The cost of sugar in the last year soared more than doubled since the harvest in Brazil and India prevented the bad weather. In addition to sugar, rose sharply the price of coffee, cocoa and tea. And prices for some time continue to grow. So lovers of sweets and morning coffee not to be envied. On average, 1-1,50 UAH. rise in the price of bread. The reason is that the grain becomes more expensive in the world.
most pessimistic analysts do agency Bloomberg. In their view, recovery from the effects of the global financial crisis could stimulate demand for food products and lead to higher prices for food commodities by 40-60%. Naturally, such a rise in prices in Ukraine is impossible, but the price hike of 15-20% per year - this is a very real prospect.
fate hryvnia - in the hands of the new head of the National Bank
second major issue of concern to all Ukrainians, and on which depends the life of the country - is the dollar during the year. It all depends on the National Bank and its policies. A forecast of today is very difficult. The fact is that even in mid-December term of office of Vladimir Stelmakh, but the new head of the NBU will only after the presidential election, in fact contribute to the consideration of his candidacy to the parliament can only be president. From what kind of policy will hold National Bank, depends directly on the dollar.
- The prospect of dollar-hryvnia also largely depends on the actions of the Government of Ukraine - Advisor to the Chairman of the Board considers “Ukrgazbanka Alexander Okhrimenko. - After the presidential elections in Ukraine will return part of the currency, which “ran” in the offshore areas, and that about 18 billion dollars, therefore, most likely, is expected to strengthen hryvnia to the level of 7,5-7,7 next year. But it is provided that the new leadership will want to quickly solve all their problems with the budget deficit, higher wages and pensions. To solve these problems can only be through the issuance of the hryvnia. In this case, the strengthening of the national currency can be forgotten. Most likely, the dollar is at such a huge issue hryvnia will cost at the end of 2010 about 10 UAH.
We hope that the new head of the National Bank will not include “the printing press”, in this case, we expect the average rate will remain at 7.8 UAH /USD.
gasoline will depend on the dollar
Another piece of good news, you can call it that the world”s experts do not expect the sharp fluctuations in oil prices. It seems that the current price of $ 70 per barrel suits everyone - and oil magnates, and consumers.
In the next year, experts predict one of the leading UK banks Barclays Capital, the average price of crude could rise to $ 85. This is $ 13 higher in comparison with the previous one, this November, prognosis.
On the other hand, one of the largest Russian oil company TNK-BP has laid in the business plan, the price of Russia”s oil, which is cheaper than light crude oil for 5-7 dollars - at 60 dollars per barrel.
As you can see, the forecast of experts did not promise to sharp changes in oil prices, and hence on the Ukrainian gas stations gasoline cost will fluctuate within a small range ± 15% of present value, ie not more than UAH in one way or the other. But only if the hryvnia exchange rate next year will be stable.
Bad habits will continue to rise in price
drink and smoke in the past year was at least twice as expensive. Cigarette prices were raised three times, and alcohol - twice. Deputies tried to increase rates of excise duty and in December, but the president vetoed the bill. After that, they were unable to overcome the veto - they did not have 15 votes. However, in January, the Parliament promised to return to this issue. And most likely vote for a new increase in prices. How it will be - is unknown, but when you consider that in Russia and Moldova tobacco more expensive by 30-40%, then our price hike is unlikely to be smaller.
In addition, from 1 January to 15% will increase the specific rate of excise duty. The fact is that in Ukraine the tobacco tax has two components. First - the specific part of the excise tax, which operates at a fixed rate per unit of output. Rate according to the second, ad valorem, the system provides for the charging of interest on the price of the goods. MPs want to raise the second part, and the first increase under the plan. Therefore, even if the deputies did not vote for the increase in excise taxes, the smokers have to pay a premium of 10 cents a pack.
people”s representatives can not simply look for inexpensive wines. Not only that from December 1 bottle of wine volume of 0.7 liters or liter package of the drink can not cost less than 12 UAH. So still and offer equal taxation of fortified wines to the taxation of vodka. MPs want to establish the rate of the excise tax on fortified wines, but fine, at 34 UAH. /L 100 per cent alcohol. If we consider that a bottle of vodka in retail costs at least 17,96 hrn., A liter package of fortified wine will rise in price up to 18-20 hryvnia.
probably more expensive and vodka. Parliament is a bill to increase from 1 December 2010 rate of excise duty on alcohol by 32%. If adopted, half-liter bottle of okovytoy “cheaper 20 hryvnia will not be found.
Andrew Gatsenko
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