In the fourth quarter of 2009, retail trade turnover began to grow. Retailers are hoping that the worst is behind us, and open new stores.

cozy coffee shop next to the model of the Eiffel Tower, an ancient portico with statues, soft oriental sofas, tropical greenery, bubbling fountains, floating under the ceiling of King Kong, and around boutiques and shops - so looks opened in late October last year Obolon ( Kiev), shopping and entertainment center (SEC) Dream Town. This is the biggest mall in Europe - after the second stage (presumably in 2011) with a total area will be 160 thousand square meters. m. The cost of the project amounts to more than $ 250 million.

Over the past couple of months, Ukrainian retail market perked up noticeably. Thus, the first stores in our country, the company opened Real (retail division of Metro Group), the Lithuanian grocery chain “Novus”, IT-retailer Moyo, vinomarkety Polyana, Russia Book Network Bookvoed. ” In December in Kiev earned Europe”s largest construction and economic hypermarket “Epicenter” (trade area - 56 thousand square meters. M).
The trend of opening new stores is manifested not only in the capital. For example, in Zhitomir in October was put into operation a third of all SEC “GLOBAL.UA. Company Foxtrot. Appliances for Home opened in December in one supermarket in Kirovohrad and Dnipropetrovsk. A retailer “ATB-Market” for the last month 2009-first launched as much 19 discounters, both in major cities (Kiev, Zaporozhye, Sevastopol), and in smaller towns (Ugledar, Evpatoria, Konotop).

This is particularly encouraging following a string of high-profile bankruptcies and closures of stores (online Varus, “Domotechnika”, “O” Red “, ISS) and withdrawal from the market a few Russian players (” Vester “,” Mosmart “,” Relish “).” Of course, crisis in the retail sector has not yet passed, but the bottom has probably been reached. This means that companies have chosen the right time to enter the market, “- says the vice-president of corporate finance company BG Capital Alexander Viktorov. According to the Director of Sales,” Metro Cash Carry Ukraine “Maxim Gatsuts, pre-New Year period - the hottest and most lucrative for retailers, so trading networks in a hurry to open new locations before the holidays.
 

figures show

According to Goskomstat, in the fourth quarter decline in retail trade slowed down. In October it fell by 22.8% compared to the same period last year, in November - by 18,4%. In general, up to 11 months, retail turnover fell compared with January-November 2008-th to 20,7%. In 2009 the Ukrainian retail observed two stable trend - a decrease of the average check in UAH 10-20% and the revision range in the direction of cheaper products. Previously, it accounted for 30% of all goods, but now its share had grown to 40-45%.

hardest hit by the crisis category of non-durable goods - the demand for them has decreased by 30%. In addition to the desire of buyers to save on products not essential, not the least role in this was played by curtailing consumer lending. However, despite the overall decline in this category, the winner turned out to retailers, who are well-balanced assortment policy. “The crisis is a demand for an inexpensive technique, so many networks have filled the shelves with cheap goods of unknown brands of Chinese-made, - says Director of Network Development for Consumer Electronics Comfy Igor Khizhnyak. - At the same time, we did not refuse to work with world-renowned reliable producers, because consumers are now more demanding, not only to price, but also to the quality of the goods. As a result, in 2009 our company has doubled its presence in the market. ”

best feel food network. In this segment for the year sales in UAH fell by only 4.6%. Leaders in the volume of trade remained Metro Cash Carry, Fozzy Group, “Cocktail”, “Great kishenya and ATB. But changes in consumer preferences has not been spared and product retail. “Our countrymen have been carefully monitor spending, including on food. For example, in the same amount as a year ago, now they buy more goods. Changes in the composition of demand have occurred mainly at the expense of consumers and the average middle - price segments, which were to give preference to low-cost products. And there are no prerequisites for the rapid growth of consumption are not available “- said vice-president of marketing at Fozzy Group Mikhail Dudnik. According to head of network marketing vinomarketov Polyana Ruslana Earthen over the past year Ukrainians have increasingly begun to pay attention to the so-called analogues: for example, instead of French wines to buy the Spanish, whose quality is not lower, but it has no long history of international recognition, and it is cheaper.
 

Shooting squares

crisis - a good time for development. It gives players the chance to seriously effective to increase its market share from weaker competitors. The advantage of companies that continue to develop - the opportunity to take the most advantageous to trade places. Due to the departure of many players in the commercial real estate market declined and rental rates rid interesting site. Thus, according to “Ukrainian Trade Guild”, in December, the average rental rate for the available space in the shopping center of the capital stood at 57.14 dollars /sq. m per month versus 117 U.S. $ /sq. m in December 2008.

The average annual rental rate in Ukraine decreased by almost half. “In 2009, the shopping centers have provided the opportunity to pay retailers to occupy space is not a fixed rate, as well as a percentage of turnover. Therefore, many operators have been able to close unprofitable stores and open new reduced rental rates and the best in terms of spatial distribution andflow of local buyers” - said the head of analytical department of the investment group “Socrates” Konstantin Stepanov. Thus, the network vinomarketov Polyana advantage of the crisis to a specialized niche retail. For four months the company has opened eight stores. Network Comfy closed 19 stores with area up to 1000 sq. km. m and has opened 22 shops an average area of 2000 square meters. m. Trading platforms bankrupt network appliance and electronics “Domotechnica” took the company “Eldorado”, a bankrupt retailer”s Square “O” Red “passed to French discounter Aushan. anchor tenants in the new mall Dream Town started a grocery retailer,” Novus “, sporting a supermarket Sportmaster, Russia Book Network Bookvoed, its boutiques have also opened many well-known Ukrainian and international brands operating in the middle price segment - Mango, Zara, Benetton, Marko Polo, Brocard, “Intertop”, Puma, etc. - all about two hundred shops.
 

hunt buyer

To stimulate sales, retailers have resorted to the traditional way, relevant and in a crisis - discounts and promotions. Companies spend not only the seasonal sales, but also arrange a variety of events - discounts on certain goods (for example, network SILPO “during a weekly action” ЦіÐ½Ð° tyzhden “cost of goods may fall to 50 percent), offer advantageous conditions of the owners of discount cards (discounts from 5 to 30%, promotional gifts), introduce cumulative discounts.

Another way to attract buyers and raise the level of confidence in their own brand is the development of private labels. “Since 2009 the basic guide for buyers was the price that retailers have revised their offer towards the expansion of products of low and medium price segment products of Ukrainian origin, in particular their own trade marks (CTM). Their development can not only increase the loyalty of existing customers, but and attract new ones. For example, in 2009, we launched two new brands private labels “, - tells Gatsuts of Metro Cash Carry.

If before the crisis, private labels allow to stand out against competitors, but today they provide an opportunity to pursue their own pricing policy. “Last year, the total for all retailers, the trend was to reduce the assortment of positions in all groups of commodities. The solution was the development of STM. Typically, such products are 20-30 percent cheaper than branded counterparts, because it does not require the cost of promotion. Therefore, consumer goods such represent the best quality /price ratio “- finds Stepanov. The advantage of STM is that the whole chain from production to sale of goods is in the hands of retailers. Control of all stages can significantly reduce prices, and low cost of goods increases its turnover in the network. According Dudnik of Fozzy Group, the production of private labels for retailers manufacturer gets almost the same profit as when issuing its own branded products, because the heavy part of the cost of the latter is a marketing and logistics costs. For the network margins in STM is usually quite high, but you can earn a lot of volume. Nevertheless, the share of private labels in the product range of our networks is still five to ten times lower than those of European retailers, who have this figure reaches 30 #8722, 50%.

improvement in retail in the fourth quarter is not slow to affect relations with suppliers. Of course, delays in payments have now, but the amount of debt and time delays are reduced. According suppliers for the year in arrears in the payment of retailers declined on average by 30%. At the same time, some players deliberately maintain debt at a certain level to keep suppliers from switching to other networks.
 

preserve the achievements
Despite the difficulties, the heads of major retail chains positively evaluate prospects for the next year or two. According to Maxim Gatsutsa, all major changes in the retail market has already taken place. Companies that have managed to stay afloat, will continue to hold their positions. “I think this year the market will take two or three middle-order network”, - predicts Igor Khizhnyak.

In contrast to the pre-crisis period, when the network chose to grow through debt financing, new stores are now open only to those who have their own money. “Last year, retailers have reviewed volumes of borrowed capital, because in a crisis it has become too expensive. For example, the reorganization and renovation of existing stores require far less investment,” - said Maxim Gatsuts.

Investment in opening a new store is more than a thousand dollars per square meter. According to Konstantin Stepanov, today, most networks have reduced the capital cost of opening new stores with rental, preferring not to invest in the construction or purchase of commercial premises.

However, many networks are still saddled with large debts, and therefore primarily focused on preserving their positions and solving financial problems, rather than at the opening of new stores. According to Alexander Viktorov, this year most of the major players will remain on the market, although the balance of forces between them change. It is possible that the five leading food retail, except for Metro Cash Carry, will be yet another foreign company. Most likely, it will be a network Auchan. In addition, this year it is going to open in Kiev, his first building materials supermarket Leroy Merlin.

In early summer, the Swedish furniture company IKEA announced it was considering the possibility of realization in Ukraine of major investment projects, but it is worth remembering that the entry of IKEA in the Ukrainian market - a long saga. However, many foreign retail chains that have expressed an interest in our market, with the expansion so far decided to wait. These include Lidl, Netto, Carrefour, Wal-Mart. “The retail market begins a new stage of development: the network must be considerate to the customer, his wishes and needs. For it is on the tastes of buyers today depends range of shops, and hence the turnover of the network” - sums up the earthen Ruslan. Most analysts predict that in 2010 the turnover of retail trade will be at 2007 level and not exceed 175 billion hryvnia.
 
 

Transactions - ahead

Alexander Viktorov, vice president of corporate finance company BG Capital:

- I do not think that the process of consolidation in the retail market is over, most likely b #243; most of the M A-transactions ahead. After all, their number increases as soon as there are stable trends recovery industry.
In general, consolidation through acquisition was not the companies themselves, and some properties of the weaker competitors in the financial plan. In most cases this was not the biggest players in the market. Of the major acquisitions it may be noted in the purchase late last year, product network Amstor company “Smart-Holding. Bankruptcies likely to occur among small and medium-sized operators. When resumes out to our market of large international networks, will become real and the purchase of the leading Ukrainian players.
 
 
 

changes will be, but small

Michael Dudnik, vice president of marketing at Fozzy Group: - I think in the first five leading grocery retailers is unlikely there would be any dramatic changes. A somewhat different situation may be in the regions. Local network, regardless of scale, often have a stronger position than the national operators. They are not burdened by high debts and, as a rule, prefer to develop at their own expense. Besides, local retailers have developed closer relationships with local suppliers, they know all the nuances and preferences of customers in a particular city or region. However, local network less technological, so the operating part of the business they are not as effective.