July 16th, 2009
All published corporate results and macroeconomic data are better than expectations for a week already. So, today published a report the bank JPMorgan Chase, earnings per share of which was 6 times more than expected: 24 cents, against the forecast of 4 cents. Incidentally, this refutes the view of some analysts that Goldman Sachs will be the only successful bank, as was able to earn not on rebuilding the economy, but because of the lack of competition. Ostensibly, the mortgage crisis, GS has lost the least, and now had enough capital to assume risks in the markets of raw materials, stocks and risky bonds, which could not afford his colleagues in the shop. Now, good results can be expected from other companies and the financial sector.
This layout provides a good impetus for the resumption of growth of prices for commodities and stocks, eliminating the only two reasons for correction on the Russian stock market, observed recently. Thus, the idea that the restoration of the Russian market now is like a recovery in 1999, grounded in our past reviews, receive further evidence. We look forward to the resumption of the rally on the Russian stock market, at the latest, in the last week of July.
We forecast growth index of Dow Jones to 9200 points and rising oil prices to $ 80 per barrel by the beginning of September. Until the end of the year, we expect the recovery of quotations black gold to the $ 90-100 per barrel and growth RTS index to 1800 points.
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