After the Government issued the expected parameters of the budget-2010, many began to express concern that the budget deficit will lead to a devaluation of the ruble. However, if you look at the current reserves and other macroeconomic indicators. It is clear that the fears are exaggerated. Of course, the deficit of 2.5 trillion. rub. (which is realized if the average oil price of $ 50 per barrel) is quite large. However, gold reserves are now redundant: they make up more than $ 400 billion, while for the entire monetary base at the rate of 32 rubles. the dollar to $ 147.26 billion this way, consider the following scheme for financing the deficit: emission of rubles - listing them in the budget - costs - sterilization selling dollars in the foreign exchange market at the rate of 32 rubles. for the dollar. Acting on such a simple scheme, possibly to finance the budget deficit in full for the next three years and four months, ie until November 2012. Somewhat complicated scheme can be achieved and the best results. The point is that there is such a factor as a multiplier of public debt: The amount of released gosobligatsy typically exceeds the narrower monetary aggregates (M0, M1 M2).

Of course, it is possible to speculate that the CBR is not yet the Fed and U.S. Treasury Minin not, and in times of crisis, the multiplier of government debt will be less than unity. However, we are confident that despite the lack of market crisis and domestic public debt, releasing 1.5 trillion. new rubles, 0.5 trillion. of them could be sterilized does not sell the currency, and the placement of ruble gosobligatsy (OFZ, arr, or something else). Easy to see that having a budget deficit of 1.5 trillion. rub. and financing of its way to stretch in existing reserves for more than eight years. Missing $ 1 trillion. rubles can be gained by increasing the excise on alcohol and tobacco (which is now and will deal with the Ministry of Finance). Moreover, some 500 billion rubles. can be obtained by returning the sales tax. So for the ruble is not frightening level of oil prices at $ 50 a barrel.

But, we expect that the price of 'black gold' in 2010 willbe about $ 100 a barrel, as rising global inflation is inevitable. Zooming prices - the only way for lasting solutions to debt problems, without which it is impossible to restore economic growth and the financial authorities of major countries will have to do it.

In the run up to the middle of July, we are waiting for oil prices to $ 75 per barrel, and before the end of the year - to a level of $ 100 per barrel. Accordingly, we forecast growth index of the MICEX to 1350 points in July and up to 1700 points before the end of the year. Rate until the end of the year to enhance the level of 27 rubles. the dollar.

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