February 18th, 2010
Today, we look forward to the opening of trading near previous closing levels on the equity market.
On Friday, the U.S. stock market dominated by pessimism among market participants.
It published the results of General Electric whose profits in the 4th quarter was $ 0.28 per share, against the forecast of $ 0.26 per share.
At the end of the trading session U.S. stock indices closed in the red /Dow Jones -2.08%, S P500 -2.2%, NASDAQ -2.66% /.
From a technical point of view, in the last review, we noted that the Dow Jones came out of the side corridor 10234-10520 points up, that permitted the refinement of the height of the channel to 10700-10750 points. As a result, the Dow Jones reached a mark of 10729.89 points in the formation of the 5th wave in the small subvolne e, which developed in the framework of a wave with a big wave V.
In the future, “Bears” seized the initiative and for 3 trading session, the Dow Jones index dropped by 570 points, and in doing so had been overcome major uptrend from the beginning of March 2009. Also there was a fracture of the trends and other indices, including the index volatility.
On this basis, the Dow Jones could start forming 1-pulse down. At the same time on the hourly chart is oversold index that allows jump to 23.6-38.2% of Fibonacci from the fall on January 21.
Today, the level of resistance for the market participants will mark 10270 points and 10335 points. Level of support would be 10060 points.
On the hourly chart on the indicator MACD “bear” situation, and the indicator Stochastic”s on sale.
On the daily chart the Dow Jones index also remained divergent boundary formation in the 10250 points, but the point of confirming the change stood at 9430.31 and 9684 points, which is far from current levels. At the same time on the MACD indicator was launched twin “bear” divergence. Indicator Stochastic”s are on sale and in oversold zone, which allows for the current week consolidation.
C wave of the global point of view, the Dow Jones continued /completed the formation of a global wave, which corrects all fall to 38.2% -50% of Fibonacci to 9440-10350 counts.
remind that the Dow Jones on June 11 formed the first stage of the rebound in subvolny well. In the future, was the formation of wave b, which consisted of zigzag “abc”, where it was too short and has only reached the levels range between 23.6% -38.2% by Fibonacci.
January 19, 2010 to complete its final run up to the objectives 9950-10118-10159-10351-10510-11245 items in the waves with a big wave V. Also still remains level at around 11,245 points, representing 61.8% on Fibonacci of the total incidence.
If the formation of a global wave ended, it had to start building a global wave of up to 2012 to 2550-3500 points.
As an alternative and more complex options, which would delay the correction for years, then in this case the correction is permitted only jump, but not below 9283.77 points. If the Dow Jones index goes below this milestone, then finally come to the realization of the formation of wave C.
From a technical point of view, on Friday the MICEX index opened below previous levels, after which the “Bears” have continued to develop the downward movement down.
In the second half of the trading session, bulls were able to stabilize the situation, but closer to the end of the trading session, tried to win back some losses due to closure of short positions. The volume of the trading session totaled about 57 billion rubles.
So, last week, the MICEX index reached the upper limit of the diagonal triangle in the 1485 points, puncturing it on 5-6 items, after which the “Bears” seized the initiative by forming a “bearish” for the absorption of the week and the closing of poslenovogodnego ” bull gap.
As the wave levels, the bulls had reached 1436 and 1472 points in the 5th wave or waves in the wave with z, respectively, and then the boundary of the triangle. We remind you that this formation is the ultimate bottom-up figure, but “bears” to pierce its lower border at 1,330 points, and then confirm the breakdown of the 1200 points to confirm the movement. If the boundary of the triangle stand, it will still hike up to 1535-1557-1576 items.
With the short-wave point of view of the MICEX index formed a 5-wave upward movement in the course of which was formed daily fractal purchase at around 1491.32 points. On this basis, the index can start forming 1-pulse down. It can go the formation of the 3rd subvolny to 1371 and 1316 points, which is 161.8, and 261.8% of Fibonacci. If MICEX stopped near these levels or they will puncture with the repayment, it will jump from the fall on January 21 at 23.6-38.2% on Fibonacci.
At the same time, optimists believe that the MICEX index formed a corrective zigzag “abc”, which can at least prevent the jump in the area of Friday”s “gap”.
Today, the level of resistance will mark 1430 and 1440 points, then 1485 points, then the range of around 1535-1537 points, then 1576 points. Level of support will be a mark in the 1371 and 1394 points.
In addition, the indicator Stochastic”s is buying. According to the indicator MACD “bear” situation. On the daily chart indicator Stochastic”s are on sale, but about oversold zone.
Nearest daily fractal for sale is a mark of 1203.15 points, while the daily fractal purchase located at elevation 1491.32 points. Local fractal purchase is a mark of 1491.32 points, but on sale at around 1394.95 and 1356.54 points.
So, with the long-wave point of view in early 2010 the MICEX index has continued building a global rebound in the wave, which began in October-November 2008, when the index formed a double bottom in the vicinity of 500 points.
So in October 2008, we noted that the optimal range of big rebound was 1055-1230 points, which is 38.2% -50% of all Fibonacci from the fall, which has been executed in June 2009.
However, after reaching the maximum on 2 June and the beginning of the correction, the optimists kept mark 882 points. This line allows the formation of the 5th wave, but in an alternate complexity of the double zigzag correction to the triple “WXYXXZ” in the same waves B.
Since July 13, bulls have formed a U-turn, punctures line item 882, after which initially formed the rebound to fall, and then continued the development of a large rebound thanks to the euphoria in the markets and ways of increasing the money supply and budget deficits, the following method Krugman.
So, as stated, the MICEX index could form a triple zigzag “WXYXXZ” in the same waves B. Now is the formation of Z-wave with the objectives of 1436 and 1576 points, although in a zigzag was set conditional maximum around 1401 points, therefore growth triples can be completed.
Our alternative layout developed a similar picture, with the exception of internal layout, which now is the formation of a wave with a big wave in the framework of a simple zigzag “abc”.
In a wave of “bulls” have formed a wedge in the form of the 1st subvolny in a corrective wave, and then the 2nd subvolnu, reaching 545 points, representing 76.4% of the length of the Fibonacci 1st subvolny.
June 2 MICEX index set a new high, and completed the formation of the 3rd subvolny. July 13 complete the formation of the 4th subvolnu, which reached 1070-963-882 points, representing 23.6% -38.2% -50% of the length of the Fibonacci 3rd subvolny. Now is the formation of the 5th subvolny, which can develop in a finite diagonal triangle, the upper limit is around 1485 points. Also, the objectives of a large corrective wave B may be a mark of 1472, 1536, 1623 points.
At the same time, given that the global wave of developing triple A, then the wave can reach in and double peaks in the region of 1960-1970 points, but if they continue to increase the money supply in the economy, increasing the budget deficit, which will to the inflation of the stock bubble, as was the case with the dot-komami, real estate, oil.
Once complete the formation of the rebound in the wave, it will begin building a global wave C of 450-500 points, and given the panic 150-250 points, and levels can be achieved by mid-2010 and the end of 2012 that will be accompanied by a drop of oil to 15-20 dollars, the Dow Jones index to 2500-3500 items.
In addition, the same RTS index in semilogarithmic scale in January 2009, overcame a maximum of 1997, that at the global level, breaking a long-term trend, and suggests that the growth of a corrective.
Today, we recommend buying from the level of 1371 points, on condition that he can stand, short of open borders downlink.
MICEX - the time slice 60 minutes
index Dow Jones - a temporary cut of 60 minutes
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In early trading the MICEX index falls below the 1400 points
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U.S. stock indices closed lower on Friday assured
On Friday, the U.S. stock market dominated by pessimism
Logistichnoe decision
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