past week on global stock markets, and among them Ukrainian, was generally marked by negative mood. And towards the end of the week, such sentiment was growing stronger. Thus, the Ukrainian Stock Exchange opened last week, good growth - at 1.5%, and it has already completed a significant decline in 2,5%.

noted that the national indices for Monday, Jan. 18, rose against the backdrop of the past on the eve of the presidential election. Recognition of their first round held reassured investors that do not exclude the possibility of serious political conflicts in this period. It even has led experts to optimistic forecasts. Thus, a senior analyst at investment firm Phoenix Capital Andrew gestation suggested that “the end of the first round of presidential elections, supporting the continued rally in the Ukrainian stock market.”

Unfortunately, the hopes of experts were not justified. These optimistic expectations were dashe1000d with the negative world markets. Beginning the last week in global markets was marked by expectations of corporate accountability mirvoyh giants of business on the fourth quarter of 2009. Against this backdrop, markets have shown considerable growth. However, some corporations have shown the results worse than expected. In addition, the market preotsenil its growth opportunities, so even those companies that have published good reports, failed to please investors. As a consequence, world stock indices, after recovery, launched the trend in the direction of correction. In addition, the extremely negative impact on the markets have had a number of statements and key figures in the world economy and politics.

Tuesday, January 19, became a turning point for the Ukrainian stock sites. Volatility has increased, and eventually market closed in different directions. Thus, the PFTS index on that day fell by 0,23%. The index is Ukrainian exchanges, by contrast, rose by 1.35%. However, we note that a clear downward trend on Tuesday was not yet.

downward trend was determined the next day. PFTS index on the basis of trading on Wednesday, 20 January, fell to 0.34%. Ukrainian Stock Exchange index fell even more - on 1,69%. According to gestation, the Ukrainian stock market fell on Wednesday on negative news from the United States. According to him, “disappointing financial statements published by The Bank of America and Morgan Stanley, as well as the output statistics on the number of new buildings in the U.S. added negative sentiment to the American stock market.” In addition, the analyst added that American ground felt shocks that were caused by statements by Warren Buffett, whose Berkshire Hathaway fund is the largest shareholder in Kraft, of overpayment of investors for the assets of Kraft Foods Cadbury.

tendency to strengthen the U.S. dollar in world currency markets has also had last week a major impact on stock indices. Thus, the company”s strategy Astrum Investment Management Konstantin Litvin sure that it is strengthening of the dollar was the catalyst for a drop in world stock markets on January 20. According to him, the American and European venues on Wednesday there was an extremely negative dynamics because of the substantial strengthening of the dollar, as well as a sharp drop in energy prices. One of the factors strengthening the U.S. currency was the news from China on temporary curtailing lending to cool the overheated Chinese market, says strategist. He stressed that on 20 January the dollar strengthened against the euro by more than 1%.

strategist believes that “strengthening of the dollar - of course, bad news for those who opened the carry trade on the dollar, as well as for risk assets, such as oil and stocks. He noted that the rapid strengthening of the U.S. currency has led to rapid fire-sale of the oil market, which dragged down shares of oil and gas and industrial sectors, which have become leaders and downs.

Thursday, January 21, the local stock market continued to fall. At the end of the day, the PFTS index fell by 0,28%, Ukrainian Stock Exchange - on 0,76%. According to a trader investment firm Phoenix Capital Irina Barabanov, Ukrainian indexes fell, following the negative trend of share platforms of America. The trader noted that on Thursday at the American stock markets pessimism reigned. The market continued to win back negative background associated with the release of disappointing financial statements published by The Bank of America and Morgan Stanley on Wednesday, as well as with poor macroeconomic performance in the United States.

Barabanovo All this gave reason to assume that the preconditions for the resumption of the rally on the Ukrainian stock market is not - in the absence of positive news from external sites. According to her1000, “now, investors are reluctant to make purchases.”

In turn, Nesteruk emphasized that the decline of the Ukrainian stock market on January 21 could have been even greater if he had not closed before the U.S. president Barack Obama has announced the introduction of new restrictions for investment banks.

That statement Obama finally strengthened investors in global markets in their negative moods. According to Litwin, the main cause of the collapse of U.S. indexes on Thursday became the U.S. President”s message of intent to enter the maximum size of banks, as well as to determine the maximum risk that banks can take. This measure will seek to avoid the recurrence of financial crisis, in which the collapse of any of the major investment and commercial banks threatened to collapse the entire financial system. For Wall Street it can bring more regulatory measures and potentially lower growth rates. Obama has not announced specific figures, against a backdrop of such uncertainty in the market began intensive sale in the financial sector.

Amid

resonant declaration of the U.S. President, world markets have deepened the downward trend. In particular, the Ukrainian stock trading platform up on Friday, January 22, demonstrated a very noticeable decline. PFTS Index fell by 2.50%, Ukrainian Stock Exchange - on 2,46%.

Nesteruk noted that home equity grounds that day closed with a “red zone” on the negative news from the United States. Analysts believe that in addition to Obama”s statement, disappointing statistics on retailing in the UK, as well as the continuation of the conflict between the Ministry of Finance and National Bank for remittance to the Government of the NBU added negative sentiment Ukrainian stock market. “But the market reaction was largely provoked by the statements of American leaders, rather than news on the local stock market”, - he said.

new week on the Ukrainian stock market started with a very uncertain mood. According Barabanov, index Ukrainian Stock Exchange on Monday, January 25, bargained bargained near zero. In the morning he went to the decrease of the background of negative news from America, but already the outcome of the trading session showed faint growth. PFTS index also rose - to 0.16%. “The vague feeling on the Ukrainian stock market were the result of falling stock price of financial companies in the U.S., output unit inadequate corporate reporting in the United States, as well as concerns about possible non-re head of the Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke for re-election” - believes a trader.

As we see, last week on global stock markets had prevailed negative. Ukrainian Indices on this background also fell, and quite significantly. With the same trend this week, our market is neopredeltlsya. All will again depend on the nature of external news.

According to Chief of arbitrage “Brokbiznesbank” Vladislav Stelmakh, next week the most important, among other things, such events: January 26 - Bank of Japan decision on interest rates, indexes, IFO in Germany and the UK, GDP growth for the fourth quarter , Jan. 28 - data on orders for durable goods in the U.S. for December, January 29 - Canada”s GDP growth rate for November and the fourth quarter of 2009.

As regards the forecasts for more distant prespektivu, it can be assumed that the continuing (despite some positive trends in the economy), the global economic crisis, as well as post-election situation in our country and the risks involved do not make the situation on the Ukrainian stock market more stable.

As the managing director of worldwide sales and new markets, the investment group “Socec0rates” Konstantin woodsman, “this year could prove even more difficult than the last. Macroeconomic indicators are quite poor. The political showdown after the elections might be delayed, and” Westerners “do not will rush to invest. Because of the low capitalization of the companies of their placement but may transferred to subsequent years. Much will depend on the start lending real sector, a stable exchange rate policy and investment promotion. Nonetheless, experts expect a growth stock indexes up to 2010 by 40-50%. In his opinion, would be in favor stocks wagons and agricultural enterprises, energy and financial sectors.

From the above we can conclude that the world economy was still very, very far from recovery. Therefore easily predictable situation on the Ukrainian securities market is not expected until. And on top of that, we have again - the election …

Oleg Kobernik

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