Reducing the stock market in China should not significantly affect Russia's stock market. Chinese shares fall for a whole month, however, the markets of other BRIC countries is almost not affected. For example, the August stock index Celestial, in dollar terms, fell by 22%, the Brazilian Bovespa index rose 4.5%, the Indian market fell by 1.9%, symbolic, and Russia's RTS index rose by 5.2%.

This behavior of markets is not surprising: in the long term dynamics of the markets, the BRIC countries varies greatly. So with the post-crisis lows in 1998 the RTS index grew 27.78 times, while the rise in the markets of the other three countries (in dollar terms) was much more modest: China grew 2.5 times, India - 5 times, and Brazil - at 13.2 per cent. Clearly, if the markets so much different for long periods of time, the same should happen in the short time intervals.

Therefore, to make predictions (even for short) based on a simple comparison of the dynamics of different markets correctly. The main trend of asking fundamental indicators (actual or expected), such as the company's profits, the cost of capital and other short-term factors also must be considered, but they make only some changes in the underlying trend: for example, they can delay the time to increase or decrease.

In the current situation fundamentals, certainly favorable: we have repeatedly written that if such prices for raw materials and Eurobonds yield RTS index should cost about 1400 points. Chinese factor is, in our opinion, short-term: given the degree of command of the Chinese economy, the authorities have every opportunity to prevent the collapse of credit. Although it is clear that some negative impact on our market decline of Chinese stocks still will.

We recommend you buy shares in Russia's RTS index reaching levels of 1020-1050 points to 1800 points. We also recommend selling the dollar for the ruble, and expect it to reduce to a level of 27 rubles. the end of the year.

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