Kremlin”s intention to drive out the Polish gas market, the German company Wintershall and Bartimpex local gas trader Alexander Gudzovatogo could lead Russia”s gas monopoly Gazprom to the birth of a single Ukrainian-Polish “transit front”.

Ukraine”s success will rise from January 2010 the transit rate for pumping gas through Russia”s Ukrainian territory, added courage to neighboring Poland. Against the background of lower average European gas price increase in tariff of $ 2.07 /thousand m3 per 100 km to the $ 2,7 /th m3 looks quite obvious achievement. A similar attempt to demonstrate the Polish gas state company Polskie Gornictwo Naftowe i Gazownictwo SA (PGNiG), the company which officers tax with Gazprom rate of $ 2.05 /thousand m3 per 100 km. The representative of this company at the beginning of the new year said that Warsaw is planning to tighten relations with Russia”s Gazprom

lost patience during the unsuccessful Russo-Polish talks on gas supplies in 2010, the Polish government initiated a process to prepare for trial, resulting in a charge of group companies Gazprom huge fines. When it comes to their actual collection, unified policy of Ukraine and Poland against Russia”s monopolization of their national gas markets for the first time relations between the two countries could become a fait accompli.

Most of these fines on the company”s Gazprom is expected to charge for what its Polish joint venture companies Eurorol Gas (EPG) and Gaz Trading, operating with the Polish section of Yamal - Western Europe, for many years declared losses. Their level of total exceeded $ 410 million official reason for such substantial arrears called dumping prices for transit of gas through Polish territory, which the firms used in the years 1997-2008 at the insistence of Russia”s side. Another $ 60 million fines Warsaw threatened to charge on Gazprom for failure of the conditions of the contract for the supply of gas in 2009. They assumed the supply from the Ukrainian territory of 2.4 billion m3 of gas through a Swiss company RosUkrEnergo. Last year, the company turned operation in Ukraine at the insistence of the government of Yulia Timoshenko, but Gazprom, seeking to put pressure on the Polish side during the regular talks, the Poles found it unnecessary to offer a worthy replacement. Considering that the total annual consumption in the Polish 17 billion m3 a deficit of 2.4 billion m3 of gas will force Warsaw to be tractable, the Kremlin made a tragic mistake. The result was expected just the opposite: against Gazprom attacked and Polish officials, and recent partner, Russia”s monopoly Alexander Gudzovaty.

His company - PHZ Bartimpex and coal Weglokoks - since 2002, owned approximately 37% stake in Gaz Trading. It owns 4% stake in EPG, which is administered by the Polish section of Yamal - Western Europe. EPG in equal proportions (48%) belongs PGNiG and Gazprom Export. These gas giants, with packages in 15,8% and 43.41% shares, respectively, are co-founders of the company Gaz Trading. However, we should note a very important detail: a small package of 2% of the shares owned by Gaz Trading Germany energy giant Wintershall from friendly Gazprom group BASF Kommerzbank. Under their joint control of the export of gas is not only in Poland but also in Romania.

presence in Gaz Trading Representatives Wintershall gave Gazprom a guarantee that the Polish market will not be able to consolidate its “smaller friends. Such dangerous partners, now and then norovyaschih take away from Russia”s near monopoly share of the Polish market, until 2007, there were three. These include traditionally distanced itself from Gazprom”s French state-owned company Gaz de France, sovladeyuschaya Polish companies for storing gas, Germanic E. On Rhurgas, which penetrates the intrusive system of Gazprom, wherever possible. And the third player - the Norwegian government Statoil, openly competing with the Russians not only on gas, but also on the oil markets. In 2007-2008, this weighty list added to the corporation Exxon Mobil. She sold the Polish PGNiG stake in one of the largest gas fields in the North Sea, and began to insist on a natural gas pipeline Bernau - Szczecin, which would connect gas networks in Germany and Poland, which would allow Warsaw to get this alternative to Gazprom share.

are rather intricate calculation and investment “bundles” of related to each other companies Gaz Trading and EPG for many years was a key element in the formation of the gas market in Poland. Simply put, this tandem is guaranteed to put off for the indefinite future time fans of the Russians with Polish market perspective, but very powerful competitors. Dividends received and Poland: the presence of Gaz Trading in the company”s shareholders gave the Polish side of the EPG formal, but quite a significant advantage (52%) in the voting at annual shareholder meetings on critical issues. Thus, for example, the definition of the volume of gas that EPG can deliver to Germany in the mode of transit, and the volume of shipments through the company Gudzovatogo on a far more profitable models or re-export of goods made on commission.

Where the money came from such operations, because of the private status of PHZ Bartimpex no one knows for certain. It is hardly possible to assume that “commercial agents” Gazprom “in Warsaw, sitting without unrecorded flexible income. While in December 2009 during the regular Russo-Polish talks on gas supplies, Gazprom suddenly many still dare to change the well thought-out scheme for years of power in Gaz Trading and EPG. The Government of Poland has been a demand to conduct additional issue of shares EPG, which resulted in Gazprom and PGNiG would receive a 50% stake, and Gudzovaty and Wintershall in the face of Gaz Trading, would lose all ownership rights to share in the Polish section of Yamal - Western Europe. Poles, such a course is not very much. Unofficially comment Polish woman presses the cause of such change in Gazprom”s strategy called the difference between the policies of the Polish mediator Gudzovatogo Alexander and his Ukrainian counterpart Dmitry Firtash. With him that, in fact, and started the current round of Russo-Polish gazotorgovoy tensions, in particular, the conflict over the failure to supply Poland in 2009, 2.7 billion m3 of gas. Unlike his Ukrainian colleague gazotreydera Dmitry Firtash, who until 2008 sported influential connections in Moscow, Gudzovaty chose a more flexible model of behavior. Polish gazotreyder tried in politics does not play. He preferred to direct the efforts of public and proceeds from gas trading profits in a matter of strategic importance for the diversification of the gas market in Poland projects, in particular, the training pipeline Bernau - Szczecin company VNG group Wintershall BASF.

Polish press saw in such a policy now become unnecessary Moscow Gudzovatogo diligence that the investor just like all the leading Polish political camps. One of these camps is inclined to diversify the market in Poland with the support of the project of building a gas terminal in Swinoujscie to receive tankers with liquefied gas from Qatar. This project is in full swing, but to achieve profitability requires sophisticated market entry of liquefied gas to neighboring countries (Lithuania, Belarus and Ukraine). Another camp of Polish politicians supported the costly project of building a pipeline from Denmark to Poland”s access to resources of the Norwegian Statoil. Against the background of these two projects supported by Gudzovatym and Wintershall project Bernau - Szczecin seemed a reasonable compromise. The current requirement of “Gazprom” for the withdrawal of Gaz Trading of the founders of the EPG was the logical culmination of all these intrigues. After all, if the Polish government still dare to bring the matter of sanctions against Gazprom before the end, ordered him to pay fines for a previous era of “loyal format” of the company”s EPG, power and Gudzovaty will be in the same boat and will be forced to consolidate around the project Bernau — Szczecin.

In contrast to the terminal in Swinoujscie, threatening to reduce the Polish market of Gazprom by 35-40%, this project because of the partnership in relation to Gazprom status Wintershall BASF looks much less inimical to Russia”s near monopoly. At the same time, if the Warsaw relinquish the threat of charging $ 470 millionth fines and desire to convert this amount to the motive for raising the Polish transit tariffs to the level of the Ukrainian, she would be forced to abandon the service Gudzovatogo, and the future of the project Bernau - Szczecin. Selection will be made in favor of outright war against “Gazprom” - time to market of Eastern Europe through the terminal in Swinoujscie resource of the world”s largest deposits of Qatari gas to the North Field. ” The cost of its development in times below cost “Gazprom”s” Arctic mining.

Andrei Starostin

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