vast majority durilok for under the arrangement of umnyak the past few years, normally we have one model scenario.

Phase One. First, any shtabisty - more often than not, one of the BYuT headquarters, but there are exceptions - produce something particularly odious practices of strategic rivals.

This never happens difficulties. First, the circulation system of the top secret documents between competing political institutions up and we simply superb. What is not surprising - given the part of the native proverbs unselfishness image and technology as well as their self-restraint and personal dislike for PR. Secondly, the overall situation is such that it is almost impossible to think of the idea is so absurd and odious to get in some staff she did not lay the basis for strategic planning.

course, happens quite often, such a nuisance - with all the diversity of the collected competing staffs' top official notes, among them is not any, applicable to the specific circumstances. This is not a problem. Having more than one dozen of samples, it is necessary to top secret the paper writes simply from the head. This way, even preferable, because it allows to take into account all the details and exact imprisoned document, a specific task.

Phase Two. When the document is ready, he sensationally published. It is desirable - not to message boards, but in some elite media. This usually is not too difficult. Even the editors of the most incorruptible nezaangazhirovannyh media can rarely resist the temptation to exclusive. Especially with a signature stamp Top Secret or burn before reading.

Finally, the third stage. When the document has already been published, is taking a broad campaign for his discussion, condemnation and comment.

We are so accustomed to this model scenario, which appeared a few days ago a secret plan for Yushchenko - not direct plums , and some psevdoanalitika - could pull a small sensation. But it is not drawn.

Perhaps the format of plan was chosen as a tribute to tradition, though in fact it is just the set of a message. However, is interesting. Precisely because the analytical part of the provisaet entirely. And if you smart, or at least informed people feel free to write nonsense - it deserves at least that way - what, for whom and why.

But above all - an analytical component. She does not hold water. Even the author is forced into the key points to make reservations.

The current Verkhovna Rada to be dissolved … But at the same time: … does not specify why the Parliament should samoraspustitsya (and the president lacks the constitutional grounds for its dissolution), and when it will be re-appointed.

… Government should be dismissed Tymoshenko from the government … You can simply withdraw from the government representatives of NU-NA … To open the meetings necessary for the Government to 17 ministers from 25. Four had no means enough to resign even 5 … The author specifies: It's difficult, but doable.

course in the world nothing is impossible, but Clausewitz taught that operate not as opportunities and probable.

All plans

coups (including constitutional), and a change of government - in particular, the Government of Tymoshenko - have been thwarted precisely because of their lying very unlikely assumption.

Including these: President Yushchenko's here can help the Party of Regions (which accumulated a long list of human claims to the government).

The assumption that the Regions are willing to support any plan to eliminate government, Tymoshenko - a highly realistic. But highly unlikely that this assistance will be effective. Because, if the PR would have been enough of their own, or at least controlled the votes for the resignation of any minister, they would Mogi with equal success to vote and the resignation of government entirely.

Regional and tried to do this repeatedly, but they never have enough forces. This here ambush.

all the more unlikely it is now, when Tymoshenko moved to the control package faction NU-NS, and when she realizes that letting each individual minister is fraught with the approach of a dangerous line. And even when the creature Yushchenko does not seem eager to leave on otmashke nasizhennye their positions.

Incidentally, the otmashke. June 10, Yushchenko has already otmashku governors pursue its own economic and social policies in the regions (to implement the program, ignored by the government).

Actually, the only possibility for them that something is done - cease to deduct the taxes in favor of the central budget, which opens the door obezdvizhit the government even without his formal resignation. In doing so, the analyst again understands that, even independent of Yushchenko Governors should not be too reckless to seek to commit criminal acts in the name of the second term of Yushchenko …

to the second term, we will return. And examples of dubious and unfounded allegations can multiply and multiply. If the Plan for Yushchenko was really analytics, since each logic and /or systemic inconsistencies author, to comply with the rules of correctness, would have had to make notes: Since these are not really almost, further consideration of the text represents a purely academic interest. But an analyst for some reason does not.

The analyst continues to distribute inquisitive thought, uncritically referring to all the questionable pile unlikely assumptions and obviously absurd ambitious and technologically attractive plan. But, again, he was forced to admit: From the very beginning … the plan is called only one question - and who actually will sell? Cash resources for the President did not have enough ….

Likewise, there is not enough - do not go to the analysts. And then, as always, comes to the aid of my stick-vyruchalochka our true bugbear - the Party of Regions. They blame themselves. As yet there was no such recondite, and so ridiculous tufty, which is not a regional vparili would be under the guise of a brilliant strategy.

but not all, are behind the curve nonsense. Like announced withdrawal of support Plan of a series of interviews, who gave the recent Mykola Azarov. In which prominent regionalization, as rightly noted analyst - has consistently advocated the resignation of government, early elections and presidential elections BP strictly in January.

And Azarov, probably regularly cleans teeth. Strangely, this fact does not beat. As impressive, analytic sounded like: … the main resource for implementing the plans will be the Party of Regions Yushchenko. In any case, Azarov has clean teeth.

meaningful and logical connectivity in a syllogism would be exactly as long as all the major provisions of the proposed analysis.

However, if the plan is neither a plan nor the analysts - that it represents in reality? As already noted: badly packaged set of message. In fact, that kind of denunciation - in high authority. People, be careful! Yushchenko wants podsidet … never Guess Who - the Arseny Yatsenyuk!

Here it is, the key fragment: it is not logical to assume that the realization of this ambitious plan can not as a secondary objective to assume the election of Viktor Yushchenko to the presidency. What would he concede that post Yatseniuk if it gets its own proposal with the Constitution and all the possibilities for the election.

course, may find such cynics, who note that any real chance of electing neither Viktor Andreyevich, neither Arseny Petrovich. Because a minimum rating, and the other lime.

Moreover, persistent rumors go that the various major forces that are betting on Yatseniuk seriously hesitate over replacement - still have time before the election. Even with these thoughts are bound dramatically increased the activity of such politicians as Volodymyr Lytvyn, Sergei Tigipko, Anatoly Gritsenko, or even President.

But our analyst hastens to reassure all about quite dynamic rating Arseny Petrovich. It looks in its own very moving.

… however, its growth has recently stopped, but it and the campaign has not started yet … noticeable that there was no special campaign Yatseniuk is not. In fact, he only comments on the various events of political life. Comentários these emotional, witty, often interesting and sometimes - are competent.

You'd think during the period of rapid growth of its rating Arsenii Petrovich saved drowning, dragged children from fires, fought with dragons and releases beautiful, or at least, won inflation and economic recession.

No? Only commented on the various events of political life?

Undoubtedly, the Yatseniuk there are lots of advantages. However, there is at least one serious politician, whose chief interest is precisely the shortcomings of young candidates. Especially the fact that he has no chance of winning.

chances - albeit melting day by day - has Yulia Tymoshenko. In any case, it is a high probability of being held in the second round. Over one and a half to two months before election day, the whole deal will be obvious to all. Including for those who support Yatseniuk. What choice will they have then? Yes, actually, no. They will have to bet on the Tymoshenko bloc, with its promise to appoint a prime minister Yatseniuk.

Not in the media so rapidly (more than a campaign) zazvuchali variation on the theme of all kinds premersko-presidential alliance.

course, this plan is not very extensive and technologically is not beautiful. Even the opposite - very simple. And another from the Yulia Tymoshenko bloc, most likely, simply do not.

Valery Zaitsev, New Facets, specifically to UNIAN

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