Greed destroys trendy chap!

The main positives of this morning is the rise in oil prices, Light above $ 75 per barrel., the growth of Russian indexes at the opening will be 1-2%. Better the market today is oil and gas sector. And oil prices are indeed a decisive factor for Russia's stock market, they determine the cash flows of companies and the discount rate in the construction of models of discounted cash flows.

Optimists hope that by the end of the price of a barrel of evil and will reach $ 90 per barrel. We hold a different opinion. Further rise in oil prices to say the least not very beneficial for industrialized countries, primarily the U.S., because able to kill the green shoots of economic recovery. About a third of the oil facilities of Saudi Arabia, now temporarily withdrawn from production, and political influence in the kingdom of the U.S. strongly increase the supply only a matter of political decision. In this warm-up global commodity and stock markets leads to inflation and the rapid rate increases with the inevitable adjustment in the global stock and oil markets. We believe that now, in general, except for some ideas in the second /third tier and Gazprom, the shares no longer look attractive from the standpoint of fundamental assessment. The share of non-residents in Russia's stock market is much smaller than before the crisis. Russia's parties are largely represented by speculators, and hence the risk of high volatility are still present.

Gazprom and CNPS signed an agreement of intent on gas deliveries to China. The volume of gas supplies to China could reach 70 billion cubic meters a year annually. The issue price is open, the impact of news on Gazprom's shares until neutral.

Oleg Deripaska, has decided to take up the reform of the electricity industry. The owner of Rusal offers to return to the idea of the time of RAO UES of Russia, when all power plant Russia is intended to unify four hydro companies. Independent company proposed to do, in particular, the largest asset RusHydro - Sayano-Shushenskaya power plant, which does not work after the accident on August 17. Oleg Deripaska and Rusal proposes to allow, as the largest consumer SSHGES, enter in its share capital. Despite the impressive lobby resources of one of the most famous Russian oligarchs, we believe this idea dead, and we believe that as a result of the accident would be eliminated. In this part of the amount allocated to eliminate the tragic consequences that will certainly be stolen. Electricity is one of the most corrupt sectors. However, even taking into account all known negative campaign RusHydro good idea to medium-term objective of 1.5 rubles.

Evening American statistics will probably determine the outcome of today's trading. Game 2009 on Russia's stock market has already been done, you should not buy shares now. The train had already left. And those who do not want to risk early in the year, remained. Remember, greed ruin trendy chap!

Kommersant: Tax Administration has prepared a verification mechanism for the payment of VAT
Kommersant: Naftogaz has received in the management of five CHP
European indexes falling on Tuesday because of falling confidence in Germany
The Ukrainian stock market on Tuesday adjusted downwards
As leaders of growth today will be the paper of oil and gas and mining companies
Probability updating highs on the U.S. market and oil could trigger a sharp rise in quotations of blue chips and in Russia
Even with further correction of the paper second tier can now continue to rise
Another of the correction may become standard in 1239 points on the MICEX Index
The dynamics of the market determine what the non-resident players, their behavior will depend on the presence of long-term strategy in Russia