July 3rd, 2009
The Russian stock market opened generally neutral. In the first hour of bidding at the sites dominated by the positive, mainly due to the lifting factor pereprodannosti, as well as a slight positive on external sites before starting the session, namely - in the rebound of oil quotes and poluprotsentnom growing U.S. futures indices. Factor Friday and the steep cost of the failure of the black gold within a day resulted in a massive sale after 11:30 Moscow time. Published macroeconomic statistics for the euro area, in particular, data for euro area retail sales, which declined by 3.3%, with projections falling 2.7%, increased the negative mood of market participants. Dramatically - negative statistics led to a decline in the euro against the dollar, which is reflected in the prices of black gold, which at the time of punch-down level of $ 66 per barrel. Lack of trades on the American sites are not reduced volatility of the session, but speak volumes about the dominance of the market speculators, which in the case of a neutral background to the end of the session can be cut shorts that could support the stock market indices and to put in zero. When negative indexes Signals can go back to theminimum of the day. In my opinion, the weekend is to go into the cache, since the opening of trading Monday, while seems uncertain. Futures on the SP 500 continues to bargain below the level of 900 points, and reasons to return to the corridor 900 - 930 points yet.
Technically, the index of the MICEX in today's session continued to move in a sideways channel, formed in late June. The lower boundary of the channel was made today as the level of support. Resistance has become a standard in the region of 980 points.
coming week promises to be fairly quiet in terms of macroeconomic statistics. The most important will be data on the euro, in particular, the GDP for the I quarter, may have an impact on the dynamics of the foreign exchange market. The negative statistics, combined with yesterday's statement of the head of the ECB JC Trichet that the activity is likely to remain weak and the economic reconstruction of the euro is not expected until mid-2010, could lead to a sharp weakening of the euro to the dollar, which has a negative impact on the commodity market quotations. Key data on United States will be published on the prices of imports and exports, as well as the index of consumer confidence. Next week, I believe, will take place within a lateral trend, since the proximity of reporting season, which starts in full from mid-July, will deter investors from the action. The main corridor for the MICEX lies within 950 - 1000 points.
Better market today are shares of Russian metallurgical sector, supported by yesterday's news from China. Stocks Polyus Gold has traditionally been in demand in the period of correction, looks better than the market today. Providing support to them and the rising cost of gold.
Shares of Russian oil and gas well to follow the dynamics of prices of black gold. The papers were subjected to the largest sale in mid-session, so in the case of a neutral external background is the action of the sector may be closer to the closure of bidding cannon up due to the closure of the active short.
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The State Duma ratified the agreement on the construction of the pipeline Skovorodino - Mohe
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