July 13th, 2009
Information received in the market on Friday and the morning of Monday, has been spotty for the sector on the highly risky nature of investment.
The July consumer confidence indicator is calculated Reuters and the University of Michigan, fell to 64.6 pt. to 70.8 pt. in June 2009, and experts in the average expected value equal to 71.1 point.
On the other hand, the U.S. trade deficit in May, TG totaled $ 25.96 billion, with an average forecast of this index is equal to $ 30 billion, and the April level of the indicator, revised from a decline to $ 28.79 billion against $ 26.19 billion in April 2009
Against this background, given good data on the average of corporate American companies, published since the beginning of the quarterly reporting season, the U.S. stock market, and with it the global sector carry trade, could not find a sufficient strength to sustain a strong bear trends.
released this morning, Japanese industrial production index in May, TG demonstrated a slight decrease in annual rates of decline, to -29.5% versus -30.7% in April 2009, while consumer confidence in the economy of this country, according to today's data, rose in June 2009 to 38.1 point to 36.3 pt. in the previous month.
However, information about Sunday's defeat at the elections in Tokyo ravyaschey Parliament the Labor Party of Japan and the uncertainty regarding the nature of future publications of the U.S. corporate reporting season, the active phase of which begins this week, in a seasonal reduction in market liquidity caused on Monday quite a marked decline in the financial markets.
As a result, quotes the American currency on the FX in the last hours have been quite visible support. As part of the trend rate of EUR /USD for the opening of today's European session to rollback to the level of 1.3900 against 1.3970 on Friday evening.
In general, the medium-term dynamics of quotations euros to the dollar seemed to remain negative. Folding in the economy of the EU conditions conducive to the revitalization of that term, the ECB policy of monetary expansion, which in this perspective can be followed in its actions suit the Swiss National Bank and Bank of England.
However, in terms of the coming weeks, the euro to the dollar, it is possible, get some support.
These quarterly financial statistics of American companies, emerging in mid-July, TG indicators of macroeconomic indicators for the U.S., may disappoint the market bears. This leading market regulatory structure, which in recent years virtually supported the process of cooling market on high-risk assets in the period may be renewed, in one way or another, support this segment of investments.
Russian ruble to the USD and bivalyutnoy basket today by 11:00 Moscow time was 33.07 and 38.83 rubles. against, respectively, 32.33 and 38.45 rubles. Friday morning at the auction.
The recent gradual appreciation of the ruble to bivalyutnoy basket Bank of Russia and the USD in the long run to the end of TG, perhaps as a result of continued, even in the face of improvement in the financial markets of Russia, as compared with the current period .
Increased government measures to stimulate the growth of credit in the domestic market of the Russian Federation in the current environment is likely to contribute to the development of this trend.
However, in terms of weeks for the ruble on international FX the opportunity to represent a certain period of stabilization. Rate USD /RUB went on quite a strong level of resistance 33,00-34,00 EUR. to the dollar. Oil prices are now also tested quite a significant support for the points near $ 60 a barrel, but bearish trend segment on the highly risky assets, possibly, is now including - the technical problems of its further development.
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Kommersant: tranche consonants
After a morning of correction up Russian indices traded differently
The immediate objective rebound up futures on RTS index is located in the vicinity of 80 000 items
At the beginning of the new dynamics of the week quotations of petroleum continues to be downward, the losses amount to approximately 0.7%
The Russian market can turn quickly, rather than continue down
Positive expectations for the Russian market in the medium and long-term stored
IBRD net income for 2008 under IFRS amounted to 107 million rubles
VTB will pay dividends on the results of 2008 of $ 0.000447 ruble per share
Review of the FOREX market for 10.07.09



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