Ruble updates annual maxima

domestic currency continues to strengthen: the U.S. dollar in the UTS with the calculations of tomorrow came close to the border as early as 29 rubles and amounted to 29,16. This is 2.7 kopecks. less than the weighted average rate of the previous trading day. However, today the volume of trading has not significantly increased: it amounted to 1,586.42 million dollars, which exceeded the figures of the previous trading day by 20%.

in favor of strengthening the ruble today are added all the circumstances. First and foremost, is rapidly rising in price petroleum. Black gold on product platforms poses a new price record, renewing annual maximums.

Another reason can be considered the increased interest of investors to domestic exchanges, and as a consequence of capital inflows into the domestic economy. However, this factor is purely speculative in nature: in the event of a substantial correction in the stock markets and changes in oil quotations in the negative direction, it is very likely that we will see the outflow of money. On the development of this scenario speaks in particular, and the fact that the money come to Russia not because of qualitative changes in the balance of payments, which in principle not possible in such a short time. However, while the Bank of Russia has forecast that up to the IV quarter of capital inflow in Russia will amount to 15-20 billion dollars, while maintaining current oil prices will certainly affect the further strengthening of the domestic currency.

separate line is necessary to note the position of the dollar in Forex: the U.S. currency weakens not only to Russia, but also against other world currencies. It is possible that investors have decided on the time to abandon the dollar and shift from one currency to another. In the inflated oil bubble that step may be justified in terms of minimizing the risks of exchange rate fluctuations.

domestic currency could further strengthened, if not of the Bank of Russia. The regulator has consistently continued to conduct foreign exchange intervention, and only yesterday on the recognition of Central Bank first deputy chairman Alexei Ulyukayev purchased on the market for just under 1.5 billion dollars. Overall, since the beginning of October the Bank of Russia bought in the domestic market of about 9 billion dollars.

Further relationships couples ruble /dollar in the near future will depend on the actions of the Bank of Russia: as long as oil prices rise, the regulator will decide - to restrain the excessive strengthening of the ruble, or to stop buying foreign currency from the market.

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