Vista: immediate technical support for the MICEX index is currently located at the levels of 1348 (OVR-5) and 1293 (MA13)

The market fell into a stalemate, which can be expressed by the following formula: to grow scared, but do not want to fall. During the period from mid-July, the MICEX index showed an increase (in the light of yesterday's maximum) to 62,9%. Figures are quite critical, especially for the players focused on the immediate horizon for investment. Many are skeptical that the market will soon show continued steady growth, and for good fundamental reasons.

expectations RTS Index (1452.42 on 20/10/09), calculated by RBC is based on fair prices professional participants actually caught up with the current value of the RTS index. Perhaps, for long-term investors, this fact is not so important - in the long term, the index is likely to be significantly higher. However, this is not true for those players who play with leverage. The time factor is more critical, and bet in the game only the fact that the market will continue to grow against the background of cheap liquidity and expensive oil, a rather risky proposition. Yesterday morning the aborted flight of the market - evidence of this. Industry MICEX Oil Gas for the last 7 trading sessions actually standing in one spot (0.5%), while the price of oil has risen by almost 10%. As we see, the oil sector has not responded to expensive oil.

To start correcting lacks meaningful information occasion. Without this, attempts to play bears on Short brings the opposite effect, but pass up, in turn, meet the new portion of sales.

correctional possible trigger could be a technical turn resold the dynamics of the dollar. As the main factors putting pressure on the dollar, commonly called the budget deficit, a zero rate and low rate of economic growth. However, published reports of the majority of American companies in general superior to expert estimates, and demonstrate a positive trend of the U.S. economy out of recession. If the business is restored, it is in theory should support the national currency, increasing its reliability. The first signs of a possible recovery of the dollar emerged yesterday. The index of the dollar was supported near the level of 75 para, and the euro /dollar put her in 1,50. The upper limit of 8-month down-trend for the dollar index is now at level 76 item yesterday had already been reached the level of 75.76 p.

If you look at the dynamics of our market-wide 6-year cycle, the historical parallels in the last decade of October and leave no room for optimism. Therefore believe that it is advisable to stay out of the market. The immediate technical support for the MICEX index is currently located at the levels of 1348 (OVR-5) and 1293 (MA13).

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