The first week was a rough enough new interesting in terms of identifying new trends in the movements of the main tools. In particular, the European economy continues fever: despite the relatively positive trend (eurozone PMI index rose to a maximum of 51.6 months-long term value, and the unemployment rate in Germany remained at the same level of 8,1%), the euro so far failed to gain a foothold above the landmark level 1 , 44, nevertheless the beginning of the week there was a slight strengthening of pair euro /dollar (at least a week - 1.4256, a maximum of - 1.4483), which later gave way to a temporary weakening of the departure below 1,43. Downstroke was associated with a statement of one of the representatives of the ECB that markets are wrong, hoping to save Greece from the default of other EU countries.

Movement pound during the week was a marked reduction, which resulted in the British currency has lost about 200 points since the beginning of the week. On Monday, the positive data on an index of business activity in the manufacturing sector prompted the UK “Britishness” to the maximum of 1.6226, from GBP safely pick up, finally breaking through the 1.6100 support and came very close to 1.5900. It should be noted that on Wednesday brought the release of data on changes in the volume of international reserves the UK (- $ 1603M in the previous value of $ 1947M).

The yen started the new trading week with building: After fixing the minimum weekly paired with 93,20 U.S. dollar, the Japanese currency steadily increased its advantage that it could especially on Tuesday when it was designated a week at least USD /JPY 91,24 . Because economic data rate of the national currency of Japan supported figure to change the volume of sales of vehicles and money supply (36,5% vs 36,5%; 5,2% vs 3,8%, respectively). But by the end of the week the yen weakened again, allowing the dollar to go back to the level of 93,00. The main cause of weakness was the appointment of new finance minister in Japan after the previous (a supporter of a strong national currency) has resigned. Frank also sought to improve their situation, but all his attempts were limited to the level of 1.0250, while the dollar in the confrontation with him designated a maximum of 1.0418.

On Thursday, the situation on the foreign exchange market was very tense because of the upcoming Friday the publication of data on changes in the number of employed non-agricultural sector in the U.S.. Concerns have also been caused by investors, and information about possible interest rate hike by the People”s Bank of China before the Fed and the comments of the new Minister of Finance of Japan Naoto Kan that many Japanese companies would benefit the dollar /yen 1 to 95. As expected, the Bank of England left its key interest rate at the same level of 0,5%, and the Federal Commission on transactions on the open market came to the conclusion that the restoration of the American economy will be slow and gradual process, but inflation in the next two years will slow. Thus, the euro /dollar is down about 160 points, ending Thursday”s trading at support 1.43, the pound /dollar after a maximum of 1.6057 is lower than 1.5950, the dollar /yen have come close to 93.50, and the dollar /franc began finished the penultimate day of the working week, testing the resistance of 1.0350.

Moment of truth for traders arrived on Friday. Do not hide the fact that against the background of the forthcoming publication of the number employed in non-agricultural sector of the U.S. economy, the impact of other news on quotes markedly decreased. Proof of this are relatively narrow ranges of motion: up to 13:30 GMT fluctuation major currency pairs on average did not exceed 50 points. However, forecasts of experts on improving the status of employment is not justified. Despite the expected change 0K (the previous value-11K), number of employees in non-agricultural sectors of the U.S. fell by 85K! The market”s reaction was very low: after news publication euro pulled about 150 points up to a mark 1.4414, but quickly fell again to the area of 1,43. After that, the euro /dollar continued to strengthen until the completion of bidding, updating the previously installed a maximum at around 1.4438. Pound /dollar has appreciated by about 140 points (maximum 1.6108), but this was followed by nearly equivalent decline, which resulted in the couple stayed about resistance 1,60. At least a pair of dollar /yen was 92.26, slightly above this mark and the pair finished the day, despite the considerable recoil a bit earlier, and the dollar /franc fell designating at least 1.0215.

forecast for next week

Next week fundamental news would not allow traders to get bored. In Germany, the eurozone”s largest economy is expected to yield an index of wholesale and consumer prices (the latter figure will join the euro zone and also statistics of America). In the United States and Britain will be published data on the balance of foreign trade. Among other things, the United Kingdom and Eurozone are data on changes in industrial production. European Central Bank, in turn, will announce its decision on the basic interest rate, but ECB President Mr Trichet will deliver a speech at the monthly press conference. In the United States will release the economic report on the Fed regions ( “Beige Book”).

Regarding range of motion of the main tools, the euro /dollar is expected to move in a wide channel 1,45-1,43, the resistance for the pair Pound /dollar speak 1.6200, support - 1.5800, the dollar /yen may rise to a mark of 94.00 with the support 91,50, the dollar /franc might head for the 1.0450, support for the USD /CHF will be located at 1.0200.

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