Dynamics

dollar weakened slightly against other major currencies, but left the existing ranges. This pair of EUR /USD rose above 1.4000 marks, but has not been able to consolidate above 1.4100, a pair GBP /USD was higher than 1.6500, and the pair USD /CHF fell to a mark 1.0800. Japanese Yen to strengthen their positions against the dollar and euro. This pair USD /JPY dropped to a mark of 95.00, a pair of EUR /JPY fell below 134.00. Commodity currencies have demonstrated mixed dynamics against the U.S. dollar. Thus, the pair AUD /USD has not been able to continue to increase and remained in the range of about 0.8050, a pair NZD /USD is also traded in a range above 0.6400, a couple of USD /CAD has been able to come back above 1.1500 marks.

Causes

published on Friday these are generally not influenced the market situation, characterized by high uncertainty. The slight decline in the dollar could be due to a lack of support by purchasing the Swiss National Bank, which on Wednesday and Thursday, allegedly carried out the intervention, through the purchase of U.S. dollar, with the aim of weakening the positions of the franc.

What to expect?

At this week's expected number of events that could push the U.S. dollar from the current ranges. Primarily this can contribute to data on the labor market in the United States in June. This report is the best track, and it is judged on the prospects of restoring the American economy. Nevertheless, it remains unclear whether the expected reductionin the number of jobs in the United States support for risky currencies at the growing tendency of investors to take risks or are considered safe haven currencies, the dollar in relation to the general improvement of the views of investors about the U.S. economy.

At the same time, the publication of a report on the labor market at this time coincided with the meeting of the ECB, which could dramatically enhance the volatility. Market participants will closely monitor comments chapters ECB Jean-Claude Trichet to decide on further steps the ECB to stimulate the economy. However, the ECB can follow suit, and the Fed in its statement did not provide new guidance.

In addition to these developments in the euro area and the United States will be published by other important macroeconomic indicators, including industrial and non-index of the Institute of Management supplies the United States, as well as a number of indices in the euro-zone economy moods and final values of the indices of supply managers PMI. The data also can materially affect the situation of the respective currencies.

The UK is expected to publish a series of indicators, including indices except PMI, will be the last data the Bank of England lending, as well as final data on GDP, which is expected to be revised downward, which may worsen the position of the pound.

In general, the abundance of events and data this week, as well as the traditionally low volume of trades in the summer, could lead to a new upsurge of volatility, while the future direction of trades on the dollar and other currencies is a very difficult task. It is possible that earlier in the week the major currency pairs are traded in fairly narrow ranges, and as we approach the ECB meeting and the publication of data on the labor market in the United States will increase volatility.

What is fear?

There remains the situation around the U.S. dollar remains uncertain, and upcoming events can have a significant influence on him, while provoking a burst of volatility.

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