Vitaliy Shevchenko, an analyst company UMIS, currency market, the oil sector, non-ferrous metals

Dynamics

On Wednesday the dynamics of oil futures were mixed. In the European session on oil prices showed a rising momentum, while above the level of 70 dollars, but at the time of bidding quotations in the States went down.

At the New York Stock Exchange NYMEH cost of the August futures for U.S. light crude oil fell to 0.58 dollars and its price, therefore, amounted to 69.31 dollar per barrel.

At the ISE Stock Exchange in London, the cost of oil brand Brent fell to 68.71 dollars per barrel.

Causes

Oil again exceeded 70 dollars per barrel on Wednesday, as stronger-than-expected decline in oil reserves in the United States has strengthened hopes for recovery in demand and encourage a purchase. American Petroleum Institute (API) reported that oil reserves in the United States last week fell by 6.8 million barrels to 349.7 million barrels, while analysts had expected to decline 2 million barrels. However, the U.S. Ministry of Energy report made great adjustments at the oil market, the resulting oil has gone down. The report showed that for the first time in 5 weeks, increased oil terminal Keshing in Oklahoma, key points of delivery for futures in oil and gasoline stocks increased significantly in the 3rd week.

What to expect?

Given that the price of petroleum basket of OPEC continues to the end of the week above 69 dollars per barrel (as of July 1, petroleum basket became an additional 0.4 dollars - up to 69.83 dollars per barrel) and the possible reduction of U.S. dollar against other major currencies, given that corporate earnings will probably come much better than expectations, leading to an increase in stocks and encourage investors to buy more profitable foreign assets - it can be assumed to continue rising price of oil .

What is fear?

Skeptical assessment is dominated by the analytical choir, so it is not excluded that the oil market is on the verge of a serious correction. The so-called rise of the global economy referred to the authorities around the world, is becoming more and more questions. Rebuilding is taking place in the further growth of unemployment and a reduction in oil consumption. The data clearly tell us: the consumption of gasoline, kerosene and distillates are not increasing.

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