Fixing

dezretsessii in the Ukrainian economy requires additional efforts by the authorities, says the head of the panel of advisers head of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) Valery Litvitsky.

The third quarter looked better than the second. But mezhkvartalnoe comparison indicates a weakening of the inhibitory process of decline in July-September … The measures of monetary and budgetary support to the reconstruction process in the economic sphere have not yet led to a noticeable turn of the situation for the better. Slowing decline is not yet adequately reliably, - he said the agency Interfax-Ukraine on Wednesday.

Advisor NBU Head explained that, after eliminating the effect of the calendar and seasonal factors, GDP growth in the second quarter to the first quarter can be estimated at 4,5%, and the third to the second - only 3,7%.

According to V. Litvitsky, falling GDP in the third quarter of 2009 compared to same period in 2008 can be estimated at 15,2%: year-end decline in GDP could reach 13-14%.

In the balance of macroeconomic risks in the third quarter was even more noticeable asymmetrical bias towards a recession. Slowing economic decline has been slower than disinflation. Thus, the National Bank has reason to be more concerned about recession than inflation. Without a radical reduction of recession - inflation very soon, can also add momentum , - said V. Litvitsky.

This adviser to the head of NBU said that in the third quarter recorded, among other things, a slowdown in agriculture and the deepening downturn in trade.

The slowdown in the decline of industry, whose share in GDP is the establishment of 25,8%, in the third quarter was only 1.9%. This shows that the contraction of investment in the first half of this year becomes a deterrent for Economic Recovery - he added.

As reported, Ukraine's GDP for the second quarter of 2009 decreased by 17,8% compared to the same quarter of 2008, and for the first - on 20,3%. Data on the dynamics of GDP in the third quarter of the State Statistics Committee has not yet announced.

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