January 28th, 2010
Leading banks that invest in countries of Central and Eastern Europe, expect the economic recovery of the region from the economic crisis this year, writes Financial Times.
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example, Italian bank UniCredit plans to open 100 new branches throughout Central and Eastern Europe, the Austrian Raiffeisen International is preparing to launch internet banking, while its rival Erste opens 70 branches in Romania.
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expansion of banking activities happening against the background of some recovery in credit markets in the region. For example, as happened in Poland in late 2009. This process, which bankers hope will continue in the current year. “I would call 2010 the transformation of the first signs of economic recovery,” - says the head of operations in Central and Eastern Europe bank UniCredit Federico Gizzoni.
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but did identify restoration - a rather delicate process. According to analysts of rating agency Fitch, banks will face in the region, with possible “risks”, such as devaluations or “socio-political pressures arising from economic conditions.”
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financial catastrophe that threatened this part of Europe a year ago, never happened. Largely thanks to the support of the European Union and the International Monetary Fund, as well as better-than-expected economic performance of key countries in the region and the sustainable provision of investment banking in Central and Eastern Europe.
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Last year, the region plunged into recession. The fall in GDP averaged about 7%. While local economists are wary of 2010, they forecast growth of almost 2%. It is clear that the rapid return to pre-crisis economic boom will not be, but the general financial collapse is unlikely.
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Poland, Czech Republic Slovakia out of the crisis in good financial shape, but in other countries is much worse than expectations. Baltic States plunges into a deep recession. Hungary, which experienced difficulties even before the global crisis, is still trying to restore investor confidence. Romania and Bulgaria, the economy, which the global crisis struck later also have to fight for a way out of recession in 2010. A similar situation is developing in Ukraine, torn by political strife.
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In these states, banks record growth in overdue loans. According to Capital Economics, the percentage of loans in Hungary amounts to 9,5%, in Romania - 11,2% and 14,5% in Latvia. It is not excluded that the situation in these countries will deteriorate further. Austrian central bank expects that the share of the bad loans will rise to 16%, whereas at the end of September 2009 the figure was 4,6%.
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