IC FINAM increased 12-month target price of preferred shares of OJSC URSA Bank with $ 0.44 to $ 0.46. In connection with the growth of quotations has changed and the recommendation for these securities - with a buy to Hold. According to analysts, despite the lack of bank accounts in the first quarter, the holders of its preferred stock was still able to rely on a steady stream of Dividend.

28 July URSA Bank published a negative reporting under IFRS, on the basis of I quarter 2009. The results reflected the bank's overall decline in the solvency of borrowers, increased aggressive policies in the segment of retail lending in recent years. According to published accounts, interest income URSA Bank fell by 3% and amounted to 6.5 billion, while interest expense increased by 31% to 3,9 billion rubles. As a result, net interest income before the establishment of reserves decreased by 31% relative to the first quarter of 2008, which negatively affect the bank's ability to build reserves to cover bad debts - mentioned in an analytical note on FINAM.

According to the results of I quarter commission revenue URSA Bank fell by 30% to 394 million rubles, with an increase in commission expenses by 10% to 113 million rubles. As analysts estimated the investment company, the negative dynamics of the commission income led to a decline in the ratio of fee income to the cost to 3.5 with an average for the public banks - more than 10.

net profit URSA Bank for the I quarter of 2009 amounted to only 156 million rubles. For the third type of preferred stock annual dividend payments of about $ 23 million, which at current rates is equivalent to 705 million rubles, say analysts FINAM: Thus, if the net profit would remain within a year at the 1 st quarter it is not enough even for the payment of preferred stock.

Among the negative factors for the URSA Bank investment analysts the company is also increasing the volume of bad loans, whose share in the first quarter amounted to more than 20%: If you calculate the arrears of the most stringent test, when accounting for non-payment of loans to be more one day, the amount of the arrears will reach 17%. Total amount of problem loans at the end of the first quarter of 2009 reached 21.7%. This figure far exceeds the delay of other public banks, which as a result I was the quarter of 4.3% to 8 , 9%.

investment analysts the company expects further growth of arrears URSA Bank: Overdue debt from 1 to 90 days will be gradually transformed into a delay of more than 90 days, under which the bank creates reserves. Taking into account the decline in incomes and the rising cost of funding, in subsequent quarters is likely that the bank will be losses due to the need to increase reserves.

Nonetheless, FINAM notes that despite the potential losses the bank, owners of preferred shares can expect to pay dividends from retained earnings of previous years. Maintaining the financial stability and payments prefam URSA Bank will facilitate association with MDM-Bank and the potential government support of one of Russia's largest private banks. In addition, to increasing the target price of preferred shares the company has been reducing the required premium for the risk of investment in Russian assets.

Department of Public Relations and Media Investment Holdings FINAM.
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