Finam presented its forecast for oil prices. According to analysts, the average annual price of Urals oil in 2010 will be $ 76 per barrel. High prices will support the growth of real consumption of raw materials and the preservation of a substantial investment component of demand. At the same time, the growth of oil and petroleum products in tankers on the background of excess supply can stimulate the volatility of oil prices.

In early 2009, world oil prices started from levels around $ 40 a barrel throughout the year showed relatively dynamic growth with only short-term failures. As a result, by the end of last year they reached levels of $ 80 per barrel. “And global demand for oil, and its proposal fell until the mid-year, then almost simultaneously changed the trend of increasing - analysts said Finam” Alexander Eremin. - But if the supply began to increase sharply, the demand has grown much more slowly. In Consequently, by the end of last year, the gap between supply and demand was highest for the entire year. This fact suggests a possible short-term correction in oil prices in the first quarter of 2010. ”

further growth of world oil and petroleum products in tankers will contribute to volatility in prices for hydrocarbons in 2010, believed in the “Finam”. “In December 2009, was recorded historical maximum of oil and petroleum products in tankers, - said Mr. Eremin. - We look forward to continuing the trend towards an increase in stocks in the first half of 2010, which would significantly limit the rise in oil prices during this period. Our expectations based on a strong excess of world oil supply over demand. oversupfc1ply becomes growth of world oil reserves and supplies in tankers are the most liquid.

“Free tanker capacity at the moment is sufficient to limit the growth of stocks in them, but these reserves may at any time be thrown on the market that can increase the volatility of oil prices in 2010″ - the study says. Gradually reducing the gap in demand and supply of oil and, consequently, began to reduce stocks in tankers analysts expect the investment company in the second half of 2010.

However, the trend growth in demand for oil by developing the positive trends in the global economy is likely to continue, which should support oil prices during the current year. “Additional factors supporting quotations of oil on world commodity markets will be maintaining a high investment component of demand against the backdrop of low interest rates, as well as increase the risk of weakening the dollar and accelerating inflation,” - says Mr. Eremin. He predicted that the 2010 conjuncture of world commodity markets will remain generally comfortable for Russian exporters and the domestic economy.

Department of Public Relations and Media Investment Holding Finam.
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