While the whole world fighting for the right production and marketing of an increasingly technology-related products with additional income, Ukraine almost two decades, is moving in the opposite direction - to the deindustrialization of the national economy, said Dr. Sergei Korablin Economic Sciences.

“In the early 90″s, few talked about the risk of commodity redevelopment of Ukraine. Today it is no longer a risk and not a threat but a fait accompli, not causing any discussions,” - states Korablin.

According to the expert, on the eve of the crisis the share of commodities within the domestic industry was 70% against 14,6% of investment goods. Similar relationships are observed in the structure of merchandise exports. Moreover, if in the 80 years it dominated the production of machinery - approximately 37% and the share of ferrous metallurgy was two times less (18%), in the 2005-2008 year have been observed directly opposite proportions: Engineering - 15% black Metallurgy - 40%, says the analyst.

For example, during 1990-2008, the proportion of machinery in the industrial structure of the country has declined by half - from 31 to 14%, while in the steel industry, by contrast, has grown - from 11 to almost 27%.
“Independent Ukraine, it seems, has not realized that its legacy aircraft industry - technological luxury, the right of possession which belongs to only a few countries. And if, contrary to national policy, it is not lost, it was only due mortgaged once the reserve of strength, which is not limitless. Moreover, the domestic aviation industry has long lost the signs of mass production, huddled up to build a few planes a year “, - noted the expert.

Thus an apparent “attenuation” of innovation, notes Korablin. Thus, the associated development of industrial production declined in 2003-2008 tripled. Read the rest of this entry »

Fitch Ratings said that the majority of rating actions in respect of banks in the world were positive in 4 square meters. 2009, which was the first such quarter since the beginning of the financial crisis in 3 square. 2007 At the same time, this trend was mainly related to the large number of rating actions after a positive rating changes with regard to Turkey (”BB” /Stable), as well as maintaining a low level of negative rating actions, in contrast to the situation in previous quarter. The share of positive rating actions on banks increased from 24% in 3 square. 2009 to 54% in 4 square. 2009

In 4 th quarter 1968 Fitch has a positive rating actions in the banking sector (3 square. 2009: 22) from a total of 126 actions. The 4 square meters. 2009 ratings have been upgraded 19 banks compared with 7 banks quarter earlier. About half of the positive rating action was due to affirmative action in regard to Turkey (”BB” /Stable) rating is 4 square meters. 2009 were placed on the list Rating Watch “positive”, and then increased later in the same quarter. 70% of banks rated by Fitch in the world at the end of 4 square meters. 2009 had a “Stable” outlook.

“Despite improvements in the major developed economies, Fitch expects that the banking system will remain under pressure - said Jerry Roklif, managing director of Fitch”s financial institutions. - In general, for banks is the lag on the recovery of the economy, so as unemployment rates in most major economies have not yet reached the peak, continuing to put pressure on asset quality. But the bulk of the banking systems were able to significantly rebuild its capital base during the year, primarily at the expense of taxpayers, but also increasingly by private capital, which is the main sign of restoration of confidence. Read the rest of this entry »

To implement clearing operations now will need to obtain permission of the National Bank of Ukraine.

This is provided for the NBU Board of January 5, 2010 № 6 “On approval of changes to the activity in Ukraine domestic and international payment systems” (registered in Ministry of Justice of Ukraine - 30 January 2010), which has UNIAN.

“requirements of this provision apply to entities that have concluded agreements on the membership /participation in international payment systems to banks and non-bank institutions, which created a domestic /international payment systems, to legal persons who intend to carry out clearing operations and calculations, to other entities, as well as individuals who are subjects of relationships that arise during the transfer of funds “- the document says. Read the rest of this entry »

Statistics did not help

Morning background for the Russian Market today turned out to be extremely negative. Thus, the U.S. stock markets on Thursday continued negative dynamics, major stock indexes declined on average by 3%. S P500 index closed lower by 3,1%. It is better to market the shares of technology companies, worse than the market - paper commodity and financial companies. The negative economic situation spread to Asian markets, where the average reduction of key indices in the morning is more than 2%. On commodity markets, Brent futures fell and traded near $ 72 a barrel, prices of basic metals groups show mixed dynamics.

As expected, the domestic site opened sufficiently serious decline. During the day the market tried to rebound, but after the release of statistics and the opening of overseas sites fall continued. In general it can be noted that the published statistics proved to be better than expected. For example, the U.S. unemployment rate in January fell to 9.7% from 10%, while analysts expected a small increase. Despite the positive job market U.S. markets opened lower, outright breaking the key milestone in the 10000 index DowJ. In general, in my opinion, at the moment investors should prepare for a prolonged correction of the market as a whole, 10-15% from current levels. The impetus for such a correction could be consolidating overseas indices below the key index and a possible drop in oil below $ 60 a barrel mark Brent.

One of the notable events of the outgoing week was the publication of “Severstal production results for the 4th quarter. Thus, the total steel output in October-December increased by 2%, output of rolled stock rose by 1%. Most business segments of the company recorded a moderate growth in production and a gradual shift towards the production of products with high added value. Also note the steady growth in sales prices on average by 10-20% Confident growth both in output and sales prices recorded the mining division of Severstal. Especially marked 16% rise in gold production and 41%-s” off the production of coking coal in the fourth quarter. We estimate published operational results of Severstal as a positive, the company continues to restore capacity utilization, and the main effect of this recovery, we expect to see in 2010. Another positive factor was the growth in sales prices of virtually all products Severstal. We expect that the market will respond positively to the operating statements of the company. Our fair valuation of shares of Severstal at $ 14.3, growth potential - 23%.

Read the rest of this entry »

Domestic market: “began to pray for health, finished lower”
The dynamics of the bond market this week can be assessed as mixed. End of tax payments and the growing cost of oil have supported the positions of the Russian ruble and money market rates, which generally boosted the attractiveness of ruble-denominated debt instruments. In the first half of the week we saw the growth of trading activity and the predominance of buyers in the market. However, relatively rapid deterioration of conditions in the western areas has been painfully felt in the domestic market. Reducing Friday until the character is an aggressive sell-offs, but if the correction in external markets will be prolonged, the ruble may be under strong pressure, which in turn eliminates all the attractiveness of the ruble bond market.

The biggest turnover grew Zenit-5 (0,58%), Moskva61 (0,37%), CFR-12 (0,3%), Moskva62 (0,18%), VTB-5 (0, 1%). Decreased following quotation of securities - Gazpromneft-3 (-0.02%), VTB-6 (-0.02%), MDM-BW 1 (-0.05%) CFR-10 (-0.05%) GazpromA9 (-0.16%), Moskva56 (-0,19%), Mechel-5 (-0.25%), NLMK BW-5 (-0.48%), Rayffazb-4 (-0.54% ), System-3 (-0.63%), TsentrTel-5 (-0.67%), System-2 (-0.69%).

Completion tax period, a favorable impact on the level of ruble liquidity. Within 7 days the total funds on correspondent accounts and deposits with Central Bank grew 15,4% to 995.6 billion rubles. on the morning of Friday, January 22. The conjuncture of the money market remains favorable: rates Mosprime O /N - 4,19%, 1M - 5,28%, 3M - 5,93%. NDF curve looks comfortably - 1M - 4,96%, 3M - 5,44%, 1Y - 6,19%. According to the results of the second half Friday during the week the dollar grew by 0,22% to 30.415 rubles. And the euro “has fallen in price on 0,96% to 41.741 rubles. Last week, the currency basket exchange rate to the ruble fell by 0,37%, and amounted to 35.514 rubles.

Market US Treasuries and Eurobonds: data for the January unemployment in the U.S. well-received
Key for investors unemployment figures for January were met1000by investors with a moderate optimism, as despite the decline in jobs for 20 thousand (expected to increase by 15 thousand), the aggregate unemployment rate fell to 9.7% (forecast - 10%). In addition, a good signal has been reported that the average working week, along with the number of employees on temporary contracts has increased. Yields on long-releases increased during the week in the range of 4-8 bp - UST-2 - 0.803% per annum (-1 bp to Thursday), UST-10 - 3.627% per annum (2b.p.), UST-30 - 4.575% per annum (2b.p.). Before the opening of markets in the U.S. on Friday, we see the market selling intensified US Treasuries. In the segment of Russian Eurobonds remains low activity - Rus-30 for a week “subsided” on 0,27% of the price to 112.18% of par, the yield of the issue is 5.467% per annum (23 bp). Spread between the Rus-1930 - UST-1910 has narrowed by 1 bp to 184 bp

Read the rest of this entry »

All is lost - fell contango!

Now a lot of confusion around. Former U.S. president confuses Iraq and Iran, the other day, General of Romanian soldiers mistakenly sent to Tahiti in French Polynesia instead of Haiti … I have a version that investors are passionately want to buy shares, but confused the button to “sell” and “buy”, so the market is weak. Now let”s talk seriously. By 16.40 the MICEX index fell by 2.8% (up to December”s levels), but this is not a reason for the total pessimism. Fall is a margin papers of the first echelon, second echelon (Energy, Telecoms) purchase there. In the first echelon in the shares of Gazprom”s proposal to buy at 176 were not realized - and this is positive. According to Gazprom is a positive news background (”Investor Day”). The acts of Rosneft, a substantial decline -2.8% and at the same time there is a big buyer and at times exposes to buy (size of 200 000 - 300 000 pieces). From this I conclude that the spot demand in the first echelon is also present and all that, amid a sharp decrease in unemployment in the U.S. (in January).

Giving forecasts for next week - a thankless task, but I would venture to suggest that in the case of penetration bears support 9950 index DJIA, domestic MICEX index continued its decline to the level of support for 1,310 points. However, this option, I think it unlikely, because oil quotations are now approaching the support of $ 72.4 per barrel, where a suspension reduction. Contango - the excess of the June futures price of WTI crude futures in relation to the March today fell from yesterday 2.02% to 0.97% (below 1.98% in the last two months is not omitted) and indicates the strength of a bear sentiment in the oil market , but I expect a rebound of oil upward. Dynamics of oil and gas sector would be “better than the market”.

Read the rest of this entry »

8 and 9 February the Bank of Russia will hold auctions on the MICEX for credit institutions to extend credit without collateral, with the following parameters:

limit credit auctions 8 and 9 February 2010:

Read the rest of this entry »

As it became known “EI”, Kharkiv regional hozsud invalidated a collateral agreement on foreign exchange credit between Ukreximbank and Kiev company Acropolis-K. The bank is suspected to be victims of legal tyranny.

The petition to Ukreximbank company Acropolis-K as a participant in a joint partnership with the companies” nakfa “and” Arch Investments asked the court to in1000validate the contract of mortgage of land in a prestigious district in Kiev region on foreign exchange loans to seven-figure sum. The reason for the complainant considered that the transfer of land in security for the loan was not agreed between the parties to the joint partnership.

The bank”s press service reported that the court ruled in favor of the complainant and the suspect could become a victim of legal tyranny. “The judge sort out the problem and announced the decision in favor of the complainant for 20 minutes, although the bank has provided sufficient reasons for rejecting the claim - said the press service .- The bank, which in the course of working off a loan project took three weeks just to check all the legal nuances provide the court with documents showing that the necessary transfer of mortgage of land permits participants sharing partnership was taken at general meetings of the respective companies. Moreover, the claimant is the founder and sole member companies who have conveyed their property to the bank as collateral. ”

adds piquancy to the situation by the fact that at the time the loan company nakfa “and” Arch-Investments were registered in Kiev. However, at the time of filing of the claim by the representative of “The Acropolis-K” urgently re-registered in Kharkiv. Now the bank to appeal and appeal to the Prosecutor”s Office with a request from the state to participate in the proceedings before the Commercial Court of Appeal Kharkov. Read the rest of this entry »

value of the euro on Friday had fallen to a minimum for more than 8 months against the dollar due to concerns that rising budget deficits hurt economic recovery in the euro zone, reported Bloomberg.

Euro completes the fall in the dollar and yen, the fourth straight week amid rising risk of state bonds in Europe and expectations of weak data on industrial production in Germany.

euro has fallen in price on Friday to $ 1.3707 from $ 1.3723 at the end of the previous session in New York. In the course of trading the euro fell to $ 1.3670 - the lowest since May last year.

course of American national currency against the yen has risen by this timeec9to 89.65 yen against 89.05 the previous day.

course the single European currency against the yen rose on Friday to 122.89 yen against 122.20 on the end of the session on Thursday. Read the rest of this entry »

Claus, essentially spoiled an already poor harvest vegetables Borschovo group, played into the hands of traffickers, who knew how to preserve fruit in the presentation. Last week potatoes, carrots, cabbage and onions have risen in price by 0,5-1 UAH /kg and the spring will add a minimum of 10 kopecks. weekly. The opportunity earn already interested importers, hastily forged scarce supply of vegetables from neighboring countries.

Ukraine is rapidly becoming more expensive vegetables. The highest price shock occurred in the so-called Borshchov group (potatoes, cabbage, carrots, onions), which last month added to the cost of 20-30% and appears to be in the coming months, the dynamics will continue. For example, as of January 22 on the wholesale market SHUVAR (Lvov) potatoes sold for 3 UAH /kg, which is 50 kopecks. more expensive than the previous week, and 1,15 UAH. - Less than a month ago. Cabbage week add 1 UAH /kg - to 4 UAH /kg. A month ago, according to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, the national average price for white did not extend beyond 2,35 UAH /kg. For the carrot ask 4 UAH /kg instead of 3 UAH. a week ago and 2,5 UAH. In December, for the bow - UAH 3,6-4. instead of 3,2 UAH /kg.

representative of IFC, realizing the project in Ukraine for the development of vegetable production, Fedor Rybalko said that in the next couple of months, a trend rise in price of vegetables weekly from Borschovo set to 10-50 kopecks /kg is likely to continue, and by April could even intensify . As a result, by the end of the season fruit has all chances to grow by more 1,5-2 times.

Among the reasons for the price frenzy Rybalko calls several factors. This year”s vegetable harvest Borschovo group in the country at 15-20% lower than in the past. Due to overproduction and lower prices for vegetables in 2008 (0,8-1 UAH /kg), many farmers in the last season abandoned unprofitable products. As a result, the proposal on the market declined significantly.

market participants expected the imbalance will smooth over low consumption. In the wake of the crisis, they expected the decline in sales of at least 10%. Practice has shown that pessimistic expectations are not met. Other products have risen in price far more disruptive, so the Ukrainians have become relatively inexpensive vegetables, even more than before the crisis. Read the rest of this entry »