29.01.10 12:52 ;
 

Russia”s share platforms have begun trading today the major indexes falling on the background of negative dynamics of world trade areas and reduce oil prices. Gap down opening of the market of Russia amounted to more than 1% and the MICEX index went below 1400 points.

By noon, despite the positive opening of European stock exchanges situation in the domestic trading platforms has not changed. The FTSE rose by 0,638% to 5,178.571 points, DAX index rose to 0.93% to 5,592.03 points, the CAC 40 index was 3715.84 points (0.733%). Futures on the SP added 0,111% and is at the level of 1080.4 points. By 12.40 Moscow time the MICEX index was 1399.69 points (-0.488%), the RTS index has lost 0.470% to 1454.18 points. Trading volume on the MICEX is $ 2 309.31 million

The leaders of today to reduce stocks NLMK (-1.8%), “KAMAZ” (-1,7%), MMC Norilsk Nickel (-1.65%), Severstal (-1.28% ).

in the red paper and oil and gas sector. Quotes Surgutneftegaz “dropped by 1,73%, LUKoil - on 0,55%, Rosneft - on 1,51%, Gazprom Neft - on 0,65%,” Tatneft “- on 0,55 %. Exception here are the shares of Gazprom, showing weak growth (0.14%).

The shares of energy companies active rise in price in recent days, today there countervailing dynamics, probably under the influence of technical factors. Papers TGK-14 increased by 2,703%, TGK-1 - to 1,657%. Quotes TGC-9 and MRSC of Northern Caucasus have declined in value at 2,703% and 1,37%.

By 12.40 Moscow time, Russia”s ADRs for shares in London (in dollars per share) are: “LUKOIL” - 54.2 “Norilsk Nickel” - 153.2, Rosneft - 7.7, Rostelecom - 4.84, Gazprom - 6.026 .

By 12.40 Moscow time, the March futures for Brent crude traded at $ 72.3 per barrel, Light - $ 73.82 per barrel.

At the appointed time on the MICEX per dollar 30.4108 rubles provide for one euro - 42.4548 rubles. Thus, the value of currency basket is 35.8146 rubles. By 12:40 Moscow time the euro /dollar is at 1.397.

“The possibility of the outcome of further depreciation of the ruble of Russia in the foreign exchange market in the medium term remains. Correlation dynamics quotation EUR /RUB and EUR /USD at the same time indicates that, while maintaining the current level of the relative value of the single European currency to the dollar, with perspective of the next few weeks the target level for the rate USD /RUB is a mark of 31 RUR. Read the rest of this entry »

Risk aversion has made the impact of Barack Obama”s speech is very short: after rising on Wednesday, on Thursday European stock exchanges have lost 1,4-1,9%, site of America no less confidently down: DJIA and the SP had lost more than 1%, Nasdaq - almost 2% ,

technology sector was an outsider against the background of published accounts, as well as forecasts for companies which started the year promises to be challenging. Not pleased with yesterday and statistics: the volume of orders for durable goods demand in the U.S. were lower than expected (growth of 0,3% against expectations of an increase of 2%), and the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits totaled 470 thousand (estimated 450 thousand).

In Europe, once again jumped CDS on bonds in Greece, which is a reflection of the high market fears about the future of some euro zone countries. In addition, the rating agency Standard Poor”s announced that the UK banking system is no longer considered one of the most stable and low risk. Yesterday the market rumors that the credit rating of Portugal can also be reduced.

most in this situation wins the U.S. dollar: good corporate reporting, the stabilization in the U.S. economy and the prospect of rate increases, the problems in the euro area and the total withdrawal from the risks - all this makes the “greenback” leader of the demand. At the auction yesterday, the euro /dollar moves toward $ 1.39 per euro, the minimum value in six months.

The growth rate of the dollar puts pressure on oil prices: during the Asian trading session of good data on the volume of industrial production in Japan allowed the quotations of oil rise to above $ 74 a barrel, but from this point the price went down again. Before the opening of trading in Russia, the March contract on WTI crude oil is $ 73.6 per barrel. Ruble on Friday and will continue to decline against the dollar and against the currency basket.

beginning of the day on Russian exchanges will color codes in the “red” color, while the markets are strong corrective mood, decent excuse for a possible change in this trend is not. Today in the afternoon will be published data on the U.S. GDP for the IV quarter, the forecast is very optimistic: according to some estimates, the growth of the economy under the curtain in the United States amounted to more than 5%. How these expectations are too high will show the data in 16.30. Initial market response to falling numbers could be very bright, but it is worth remembering that this is the first reading and further indicators will be reviewed.

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Banks with foreign capital, taking market share in almost 50%, up to 2009 suffered a loss of $ 1.3 billion poorer results showed only banks with the interim administration.

In 2009, foreign banking groups have stopped buying up domestic banks and focused on the financial support of existing assets.

Big changes
    

Recall: in 2005-2008. Foreign investors have bought up dozens of Ukrainian banks for quite a fabulous price at a cost target of more than $ 12 billion, however, instead of profit and the seizure of more and more market share last year, banks are “foreigners” and their eminent owners were forced to take care of banal survival. The paradox is that they have become hostages of their own aggressive policies. As you know, the majority of foreign owners, owning a bank in Ukraine, sought to whatever was to drastically increase its market position.

For this Ukrainian “daughters” were supplied with cheap funding environment in the foreign currency they had only to issue loans to end borrowers. As a result, about 80% of the loan portfolio of banks with foreign capital was denominated in foreign currency, whereas in the whole banking sector this figure barely exceeded 50%. It is not surprising that the “foreigners” most affected by arrears due to the steep devaluation of the currency.

Thus, for 11 months in 2009 loss of Raiffeisen Bank Aval was 1.6 billion UAH., UkrSibbank - 1,2 billion UAH. “OTP Bank - 0.9 billion UAH. The greatest loss of financial establishments with foreign participation demonstrated Swedbank. According to the Association of Ukrainian Banks (AUB; Kiev, in 1990, about 130 members), the negative financial result of the bank on December 1, 2009 reached 2.6 billion UAH. This is more of the authorized capital of the financial institution on that date. Thus, the balance capital Swedbank was negative (-37.8 million UAH.).

A similar pattern is observed only in the most desperate banks with the interim administration of NBU. Must be emphasized that the loss of Swedbank has increased dramatically in just two months (October-November 2009). On October 1, this figure was less than 1 billion UAH. It is noteworthy that in October, was attached to Swedbank Swedbank-Invest. At the time of delivery of the material in the print press office Swedbank has not responded to the request.

At the same time high-ranking source in the National Bank assured that Swedbank has sufficient regulatory capital and does not violate the norm of capital adequacy (H2). He said financial institution built up charter fund and raised a subordinated loan. In May 2009 already rumors that Swedbank intends to sell its Ukrainian “daughter” and talks about it with the EBRD. However, later the press office Swedbank denied this information. And in August 2009 has information on the intention of the owners to increase the authorized capital of Swedbank on 5 mlrd grn. If the period of active growth of foreign owners of capital built up to race their creations for the expansion of active operations, they are now forced to offset losses from defaults on loans issued inadvertently.

fairness it should be noted that while the foreign banking groups to provide sufficient support for its Ukrainian unit. This is evidenced by the facts. First, banks with foreign capital experienced the peak of the crisis, almost without having to refinance the NBU. Secondly, while none of the foreign bank is not bankrupt, while more than 20 local players were handed over to the temporary administration of NBU. However, there are cases where because of the crisis, foreigners were forced to turn off the banking business in Ukraine. Thus, the Netherlands ING Bank in early 2009 eliminated the retail division in Ukraine.

Remains sweet
    

In early 2009, representatives of some foreign banks” stated intention to buy fallen in price because of the crisis, domestic financial institution. However, this did not happen. Following in 2009 can be identified only completion of the transaction on purchase Prominvestbanka Russia Vneshekonombank. As a result, Russia”s capital secured a dominant position in the domestic banking sector to foreign financial establishments. Over 25% of foreign investment in the Ukrainian banking system are the origin of Russia.

However, it is worth noting a number of specific transactions. As is known, during the boom of mergers, acquisitions, some Ukrainian owners of the banks did not sell their offspring to foreigners completely, leaving under his control a substantial interest. For example, in 2006, businessmen Ernest Galiev and Alexander Yaroslavsky sold the French BNP Paribas shares only 51% of UkrSibbank.

This ownership structure was maintained for three years. In early 2009 it became necessary to replenish the capital next UkrSibbank. However, Mr. Galiev did not want to make money. In June, he sold his portion of the shares in the amount of 24,5% majority shareholder. The amount of the transaction were not disclosed. Thus, after the capital increase the share of BNP Paribas in UkrSibbank reached 81,4%, the share of Alexander Yaroslavsky - 18,6%. A similar situation in the bank “Forum”, 63% owned by German Commerzbank. The owner 26% of shares of bank “Forum” is Leonid Yurushev.

For almost half a year shareholders can not increase a bank”s charter capital to 1.1 billion UAH. “The next meeting of shareholders scheduled for March. The negotiations between the shareholders are, what they will end - it is a question for shareholders. As long as capital is enough - we have the norm of capital adequacy of H2 is 16% (at the standard rate of 10%. - Auth.)”, - Noted Yaroslav Kolesnik, chairman of the bank “Forum”. According to the Business, Mr. Yurushev and representatives Commerzbanka can not agree on the price of shares.
    

There are also examples where the Ukrainian majority owners are forced to transfer control of the bank to its foreign partners. So, in January 2010, “VAB Bank announced that the Netherlands holding TBIF Financial Services NV intends to concentrate 98% of its shares. According to NBU, even at 1 October 2009 51% of “VAB Bank belonged to the family of businessman Sergei Maximov. Read the rest of this entry »

negative start bidding will not continue

U.S. stock markets closed on Thursday with another serious fall. Weak bath from the labor market, as well as neoptimistichnye forecasts from a number of high-tech companies led away yesterday, overseas stock indexes nearly 2%. Yesterday”s statement by the agency SP, according to which it no longer classifies Britain as a country with the most stable and least risky banking systems, only exacerbated the fall in sentiment on the stock exchanges.

The euro continues to fly down (EUR /USD 1,3938) as members of the currency market in fear of further declines in credit ratings of the economies of the eurozone countries, Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain. Today, Barclays has lowered the 6-month forecast for EUR /USD up to around $ 1.35. Oil prices so far managed to resist the strengthening of the dollar. Quotes of the March Brent crude oil futures on Friday morning is trading near a mark of $ 72.2 per barrel. But gold sank to a mark of $ 1080/unts., Copper prices collapsed to $ 6820 /t.

today”s trading in Asia after the U.S. also are in the red zone. Indian central bank raised its base rate by 75 basis points (5.75%), limiting liquidity in its banking system. The December volume of industrial production in Japan, although it rose by 2,2% m /m, but they do not have lasted until the forecast (2.5%). The January unemployment rate in Japan was 5,1% against 5,2% in December.

opening of trading on Russia”s stock market on Friday, we will see with a gap down to within 1%. Despite the negative external background, I believe that the collapse of us today should not wait. I believe that the MICEX index still endure higher levels of support at 1370-1360 points. However, stable oil prices will further support our stock exchange indices. An additional factor in the restoration of quotations will serve as a positive records Amazon.com and Microsoft. I do not think that the market is actively going further down, not seeing the data on U.S. GDP for the 4 th quarter.

Before the trading session in the United States will submit quarterly reports are Chevron, Honeywell. In the 13-00 waiting for the December data on unemployment in the euro area (forecast: 10,1%). In the 16-30 waiting for publication of preliminary data on U.S. GDP for the 4 th quarter. (forecast: 4.5%). At the same time leaves the January index of business climate and current conditions ISM New York. In the 17-45 waiting for the index of business activity according to the Chicago Association of Managers (forecast: 57.0). In the 17-55 goes final index of consumer sentiment Michigan University (estimate: 73,0).

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approaching the next termGovernment Bonds maturity for a large sum, but the government has already collected the necessary funds. On the eve of Prime Minister personally asked the banks to buy new bonds.

February 10 the Ministry of Finance to pay off bonds on the domestic goszayma 1,7 billion UAH. Two auction - 26 and Jan. 28 - indicate that the state has decided for some time poekonomit and offer banks reduced interest rates.

Last autumn issue of a shortfall Cabinet decided, by placing Government Bonds with an average yield 26-28% per annum. The maximum rate of interest exceeded 30%.
In January, in order not to pay the market price, the government went on a cunning maneuver. This past Monday, the National Bank was held enlarged meeting of the Board National Bank of Ukraine and representatives of major banks. It was attended by Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko. She asked to buy new issues of government bonds. The Premier said, as banks with liquidity. It was about redemption of Government Bonds of the regular auctions urgency 6,9, 24 and 36 months of future primary auctions. Also, look what is happening to agriculture - that is not driven resource paper and then no more money for lending to farmers “, - said deputy chairman of one of the largest banks, which participated in the meeting.

This Thursday the sale were offered only two types of securities - for a period six months and year. When the maximum allowable 26% of the first type of Government Bonds Government has appointed an average yield of 21.3%, the second - 24% per annum. In the end it was collected and 760.2 million UAH 0,81 .- respectively.

Immediately after meeting with Tymoshenko”s bankers, on Tuesday 26 January, the Finance Ministry also saves. He proposed to place a range of papers from six months to 2.7 years. Income them were quite modest - from 20% to 23.06% in average, although the “maximum speed” was declared, up to 28% per annum. Because of the economy managed to collect only 169,5 million UAH.

“Reducing the demand for medium-term bonds were offset by increased demand for short-term Government Bonds. We believe that growth in demand for short-term bonds reflect investors” expectations regarding the fact that in view of the large settlement of 10 February the Ministry of Finance may again increase the yield of these bonds is similar to as happened in October, “- says head of the analysis of financial markets,” ING Bank Ukraine “Alexander Pecheritsyn. Read the rest of this entry »

Emerging in the early session of the growth of Russian indexes quickly went on there. ” Bidding opened growth of more than 1%, and by midday the index climbed by 2%. This was facilitated by rising oil prices (above $ 74 a barrel. WTI). However, the negative makrostatistika from the U.S., negative corporate issuers and the “red” opening of the indices in the U.S. have caused a backlash among Russia”s market. Indices in the result showed 1.1% on the MICEX and RTS 1%. Dynamics better than the market was led by Severstal (6,2%), VTB (3.2%), Norilsk Nickel (2.1%), as well as shares of energy issuers.

Last night the situation on world financial markets worsened. Of particular concern is the budget deficit of Greece: the probability of default on state debt has increased dramatically. U.S. indexes on results of the auctions on Thursday have fallen to 1,1 - 1,9%, Europe - an average of 1.5%, Asian markets closed lower index Nikkei - on 2,1%, Topix - by 1,5%. U.S. futures indices are reduced by 0,3 - 0,6%.

We expect a negative opening of tenders, indices to fall an average of 1%. The biggest adjustment will be observed in the metallurgical sector issuers, ADR are per night cheaper. The market will continue to respond to the statements of financial authorities at the forum in Davos, oil prices and outgoing makrostatistiku. Now come out monetary aggregate M3 and preliminary index of6ff consumer prices in the euro area, unemployment in the euro area, GDP growth in the United States in the 4 square., Business activity index, an index of consumer confidence according to the Michigan Universtiteta and private consumption in the United States. Yesterday B. Bernanke was re-elected as head of the Fed for another term of four years.

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Holding Lviv Bus Plant “in 2010-2011 was intended to put in Macedonia 84 bus at the total amount of EUR10 million, told Interfax-Ukraine” in the control of the company holding the City Transportation Group.

According to the company, the plant won the tender for the appropriate delivery of 80 buses “solo” and a 4-articulated buses for the capital of Macedonia, Skopje.

With reference to the Director General of the managing company of Alexander Lobko the company reported that 42 buses will be set until late spring - early summer of this year and the second part - in early 2011.

signing a contract to supply buses will be on January 29 in Kiev during a meeting of the Government of Ukraine c Macedonian delegation headed by Minister of Transport and Communications Mile Yanakieski Macedonia and the chairman of the LAZ-Holding Igor Churkin.

“As part of this contract will save over 100 thousand jobs, not only in Lviv Bus Plant, but also at other enterprises of Ukraine, who are involved in this program. This is a real chance to get out of Ukrainian machine-building and economic crisis” - note the in the company.

During the meeting with the Macedonian delegation also planned to discuss the proposals for the supply of Laza in Macedonia articulated trolley buses LAZ-E301 “low-floor with the involvement of Ukrainian companies for the construction of trolley lines. Read the rest of this entry »

 

Thursday, 28 January, stock markets in Europe have demonstrated negative dynamics, with the preponderance in the direction of the bears took place literally in the last hour of trading. , Released in the region, macroeconomic statistics was neutral: index of business climate in the euro area January almost coincided with the forecast, as well as the level of unemployment in Germany. At the same time, the U.S. makrostatistika disappointed - the number of primary applications from unemployed exceeded expectations, and the growth rate of orders for durable goods fell short of forecasts. The speculative component of the bull market has shown character against the background of Barack Obama”s statement that “punish” banks it is not going. Fed”s promise to continue to keep rates at a minimal level during the session supported the buying mood on European markets.

As a result of bidding British FTSE 100 fell by 1.37%, the Swiss SMI fell by 0,47%, French CAC 40 dropped to 1.89%, while the German DAX lost 1.82%. Regional indicator Dow Jones Stoxx 600 has lost 0,82%.

The European financial sector, happy for the “impunity” of American bankers, during the session would add, headed by British bank Barclays, but the closure of lost winnings.
The world”s largest supplier of mobile phones Nokia soared to 9.9% after it reported on the results of operations for the fourth quarter, exceeding forecasts. Nokia”s net profit rose to 576 million euros to 948 million euros ($ 1.33 billion), while sales reached 12 billion euros. Both figures were better than expected due to the fact that Nokia has managed to strengthen its position in the smartphone market.

The world”s largest jeweler Compagnie Financiere Richemont added 1.5% at the auctions in Switzerland against the fact that analysts at Barclays upgraded the rating of its shares to “market level” to “best market”.

Swedish clothing retailer Hennes Mauritz jumped 8.4% after reporting a quarterly publication - the company”s profits reached 6.15 billion kroons, or $ 844 million and exceeded the average forecast of about 1 billion kronor.

Season brings accountability and dimmer surprises - British pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca fell by 4,6%, to account for the past quarter, worse than expected. Net income per share, with some amendments were $ 1.42 and was more than 10 cents worse than expected.

Europe”s largest producer of potash KS lost 3,5% against the background of news that a Canadian competitor and a world leader in the production of potash Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan reported a precipitate quarterly profit by 69%. Sector is experiencing not the best of times because of falling demand and prices.

British rail operator Arriva has moved to 2,9% against the background of news about the possible purchase of French operator of land transportation.

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 Now Russia”s stock market and bond there was concern about slowing growth in China, which can strike the most vulnerable point of Russia”s financial sector and the economy - commodity prices. That is the price of oil in Russia depend on both the cash flows of companies and, ultimately, the discount rate. Go is to say that the real picture of China”s economy is probably no one knows, can only roughly assess the current situation. The reason for this is the socialist system of accounting, the quality of financial reporting and transparency in China much like Russia”s third echelon.

Real GDP for the first 9 months of 2009 showed growth at 7.7% during the growth of 9,9% over the same period last year. Dynamics of production on the breakdown of economic activities (industry and construction, agricultural sector, other sectors) shows a similar dynamic. Growth of industry and construction account for 7.5%, slightly yielding to “other sectors” - 8,8%. At the end of 2 quarters of 2009, there has been steady increase in average wage growth rate is 12,4-12,8%. Business Climate Index in various industries on the basis of 4 square. 2008 - 3 quarter. 2009 show a high volatility, but the observed real GDP growth rate.

China

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

Reducing the rate of growth, of course, can cause some suspicion. However, China, despite the growth of domestic demand is still very tied to the U.S. market, respectively, started out of the U.S. economy from the crisis can not inspire optimism. It is unlikely that the Fed would tighten monetary policy before the final withdrawal of the U.S. economy from the crisis, the risks of new U.S. issues in the current situation tend to zero. Continuing high rates of economic growth for China”s political leadership is an essential goal, measures to cool the economy, if accepted, will be local. Chinese bear not particularly frightening, however, we caution against excessive optimism.

Yesterday the Fed gave a slightly more optimistic assessment of the economy and reiterated its intention to complete by February 1, four anti-crisis program lending by the end of March - the program of redemption of mortgage bonds. It is worth noting that the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Thomas Hoenig called for the tightening of monetary policy, in fact it is the first call to “bear” piece. From our point of view, the tightening of monetary policy the Fed and the correction in oil prices this year are unavoidable, we focus in 2010 on the corridor Brent 65-75 dollars /barrel, ie Current oil prices are closer to our upper limit. In terms of discounted cash flows in our corridor Brent 65-75 dollars /barrel. corresponds to the passage of the RTS index in 1800-2000 points.

We believe that Russia”s companies that are tied to the Chinese market as a whole should not expect problems. For investments, we can distinguish Rosneft and to a lesser extent UralKali.

Rating developments affecting Russia”s market

C

 

C

C

 

 

NOTE:

1. most powerful influence on the market have an event with a rating of A events with D rating on our scale, have little influence.

2. In the sections “Macroeconomics” and “Commodity Markets” in column 2 in the brackets can be specified rating of the previous day.
3. down arrow in column 3 indicates the likely negative impact on the market, the arrow “up” - positive /neutral.

FUNDS - moderately negative

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In 2009, the Government of Russia nearly 4-fold increase financial assistance to small and medium businesses. “We must continue this work because, according to available data, was founded about 200 thousand new jobs,” - said Prime Minister Vladimir Putin during a working meeting with the Head of Economic Development and Trade Elvira Nabiullina.

At the same time, Russia is gradually enters into another phase - post-crisis development. “And here it is necessary, of course, more attention paid to the impact on the structure of small and medium businesses, to support high-tech enterprises”, - said the head of government.

According to Nabiullina, Ministry of Economic Development plans to allocate quota to support innovative businesses and businesses in industrial production. “It”s no secret that we share a business that engaged in trade in services is quite large. Read the rest of this entry »