Dynamics
On Monday, Jan. 18 quotes for gold and silver have completed trades with a slight increase in price against falling U.S. dollar in the currency market FOREX, and also because of the positive trend of the stock markets and adjacent areas.

As a result of trading on the COMEX, division of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) quotes gold futures rose by 3.35 to 1133.85 dollars per troy ounce, quotes, silver futures rose 21 cents to 18.64 dollars per ounce.

Causes
On Monday 18 January futures on precious metals have completed trades with a slight increase in price by the following factors: 1 - a slight drop in the dollar in the FOREX market against the backdrop of increasing risk appetite after the release of economic news and makrostatistiki 2 - strengthening of the stock sites, where major stock indexes in Europe were closed in the green zone (FTSE100 - 5494.39 (39.02, or 0.72), CAC40 - 3977.46 (23.08, or 0.58), Xetra DAX - 5918.55 (42.58, or 0.72)) - Financial U.S. markets were closed Monday in observance of Martin Luther King Day 3 - the positive dynamics of the neighboring markets, namely, enhancing the price of oil, 4 - technical factors, namely, that the market is weak technical trade. At the time, while the market of silver and gold is consolidation in the market of platinum and palladium is observed the rally. Read the rest of this entry »

 

Tuesday, January 19, the major stock markets of the Asian region have shown mixed dynamics with a predominance of negative component. Investors are concerned that the upcoming reporting of large companies would be worse than expected. News from Japan Airlines made its negative contribution, and a decline in consumer confidence in Japan has gained pessimism.

Consumer confidence in Japan fell in December to 6-month low, reaching 37.6 points compared with 39.5 points a month earlier.

As a result of trades Japanese Nikkei 225 index fell 0.83%, Chinese CSI 300 has become harder to 0,19%, while Australia”s SP /ASX 200 went in a minus on 1,02%. Regional indicator MSCI Asia Pacific has lowered from its asset 0,4%, to close at a mark of 125.73 points.

The main event in Japan was the message from Enterprise Turnaround Initiative (Corporation for the recovery of business) that Japan Airlines Japan Airlines filed an application to the Tokyo court on recognition itself bankrupt. At the same time, JAL will be allocated 900 billion yen, and the company”s creditors will forgive her debt of 730 billion yen.

Once the analysts at Barclays Capital said that sales of Japanese banks from lending could decline, shares of Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group retreated 2.4%. Quotations Australian bank Commonwealth Bank of Australia and Westpac Banking, in turn, dropped by 2,4% and 1,2% respectively. Market participants are awaiting reports from a U.S. bank Citigroup, which will present its results before the opening of trading in the U.S..

Against the background of depreciation of the dollar against the yen have been selling the securities of Japanese exporters of cars and electronics. For example, shares of the world”s largest automaker Toyota Motor “thinner” at 1,2%, and Canon quotes left in a minus on 1,4%.

Awkwardly formed session for securities of technology companies - to blame the expectations of the forthcoming reporting IBM. Inotera Memories, Nanya Technology and Powerchip Semiconductor abated from its asset 6,3%, 6% and 6.8% respectively.

A leading South Korean steel maker Posco said that the head of Berkshire Hathaway, Mr. Warren Buffett plans to increase its stake in the company. As a result, quotes Posco rose by 1%.

The increased rating analysts Nomura Holdings shares
Japan”s largest electronics maker Hitachi c “neutral” to “buy” the paper companies reached a maximum in the last two and a half months in the value of 303 yen, adding to its asset during the session 2.7%.

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cautious recovery of the global macroeconomy is a positive factor for European structured finance sector, but unemployment continues to rise in many countries in Europe. This means maintaining the potential deterioration of the assets of European structured finance transactions, believes the international rating agency Fitch Ratings.

“It is too early to Fitch has changed the general negative view on the ratings of European structured finance sector,” - said Philip Walsh, managing director in Fitch”s Structured Finance Europe, Middle East and Africa, quoted in the report agency.

“However, as we have seen over the past recession, declining ratings, will likely focus on the subordinated tranches. The main exceptions to this rule are transactions in securities secured by commercial mortgages (CMBS), and structured credit instruments, to which fall to be more prevalent in all rating categories, “- he added.

quarterly report “Forecast for structured finance sector in Europe, Middle East and Africa” (EMEA Structured Finance Sector Outlook) Agency points out that the main areas of concern are the transaction collateralized debt obligations (CDO), CMBS and transactions from Spain with consumer loans and residential mortgages from the “specialized” creditors.

Fitch expects the Spanish securitization transaction mortgage home loans (RMBS) will remain under pressure over the next 12-24 months due to the continuing correction in the housing market, more difficult credit conditions and soaring unemployment. Read the rest of this entry »

Objectives for RTS Index futures for its growth:
1) The black horizontal line - 171 530 points on the RTS Index futures.
a. 3 - 5 trading days.

Objectives futures on the RTS if it”s:
2) The green horizontal line - 146 860 points on the RTS Index futures.
a. We look forward retesta above.
3) The blue horizontal line - 127 850 points on the RTS Index futures.
time to achieve this goal:
a. 5 - 10 working days.
4) red horizontal line - 118 500 points on RTS Index futures.
time to achieve this goal:
a. 25 trading days.

Recommendations for today:
1) Buy at 146 500 points. Stop-loss is set to mark 145 500 points.
2) to sell at the level of 171 530 points. Stop-loss is set to mark 172 500 points.

Evening session on FORTS January 18, 2010:
Following the evening session of the RTS Index futures rose 350 points, while not demonstrating any significant volume. Sberbank shares have done what all so afraid - have reached the level of 91 rubles. per share. In the best case is now at that point the paper the bank will wait for the RTS index, which still remain at 10 000 points to its goal. At worst - shares will rise to 100 rubles. That is absolutely incredible, although the “shorts” at such prices would be even nicer.

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At 13.00 Moscow time the value of the MICEX Index reached 1463.88. Compared with the previous day”s close it had fallen to 15.65, n. (1.058%). The turnover of trading on the MICEX Stock Exchange amounted to 83191.5 million rubles.

MICEX Oil Gas Index - fell to 25.37 paragraph (1.091%) to Section 2299.43, MICEX Power Index - fell to 15.4 § (0.586%) to Section 2614.8, MICEX Telecommunication Index - fell to 1.12 p. (0.02%) to Section 5627.64, MICEX Metals and Mining Index - fell to 38.49 paragraph (1.434%) to Section 2644.86, MICEX Manufacturing Index - fell to 0.08 part (0.084%) to § 95.61, MICEX Financials Index - decreased by 44.46 subsection (0.927%) to Section 4752.18, MICEX Consumer Goods and Services Index - fell to 18.61 paragraph (0.524%) to Section 3530.93, MICEX Chemicals Index - fell to 44.46 paragraph (0.927%) to § 4752.18

MICEX Large Cap Index - fell to 24.11 paragraph (01%) to Section 2388.02, MICEX Mid Cap Index - fell to 28.12 paragraph (1.433%) to Section 1934.03, MICEX Start Cap Index - fell by 26.34 n. (0.682%) to 3837.4 p.

Course Vneshtorgbanke87JSC, GAZPROM JSC, GMKNorNik, Sberbank, SevSt-AO decreased by 0.267%, 1.208%, 1.532%, 0.111%, 2.577%, respectively.

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Commissioning of blast furnace number 7 would NLMK in 2012 to increase the volume of crude steel in the main production site in Lipetsk to 12.4 million tonnes, or 40%, reported in the press release.

NLMK completes the installation of the main structures of the new industrial complex number 7 blast furnace with production capacity of 3.4 million tons per year.

today holds more than 30% of all work. Mounted guard furnace with a support system, the system gazootvedeniya, the boot device, the shell air heaters.

In accordance with the schedule of construction started mounting bin trestle for receiving and filing of ore and coke materials, and installation of refractories. During the 2010 planned to perform the basic installation of technological equipment. Read the rest of this entry »

The current year began with a nice growth for the majority of bidders. The RTS index over the past week rose by 10.80% and the MICEX index and ММВБ10 went up by 7,51% and 8,86%. It should allocate shares of metallurgists, which since the beginning of the year significantly added to its price. Severstal”s shares added 46.00%, Mechel 29,90%, 27,90% MMK and NLMK more than 8,00%. Our market is in no hurry to be adjusted, the money coming into the market, can hold its position. Index ММВБ10 is already on pre-crisis levels.

At the Asian markets there is no unity. Japanese index (NIKKEY) fell by 0,83%, the index of Hong Kong (Hang Seng) gained more than 1.00%, Korean index (KOSPI) fell by 0.09%. Indices of China: CSI200 and the Shanghai Composite went up by 0,40% and 0,30% respectively.

The commodity markets have been mixed dynamics. Futures Brent crude continued to be adjusted. To date, the price is - $ 76.68 per barrel (-0.55%). As prices for gold is developing short-term trend upward. Currently, quotas are consolidated on growth. The price is - $ 1,138.60 per troy ounce (0.71%). In the market of industrial metals, for the most part, there is a growing movement: Copper (2.45%), lead (1.62%), nickel (0.98%), Zinc (1.00%), Silver (2,05 %) and tin (-0.58%).

This comment I want to dedicate shares ammophos.

Ammofos (RTS: AMMO) - Russia”s largest producer of phosphate fertilizers with a share of about 35% of the total production of phosphate fertilizers in Russia. The key risks of investing in stocks Ammophos traditionally considered the risk of compulsory redemption of minority shares of the Group FosAgro which controls at least 95% of the share capital ammophos. However, to date, this risk is virtually non-existent, since the timing for the announcement of compulsory redemption has passed. We believe that in the long term FosAgro go to buy shares of minority shareholders in Ammofos, although it will have on the market price or significantly higher. Negative factor for Ammophos will transition to customer-owned scheme in the production of diammonium phosphate (DAP) from 2010 to 2012, GG. Despite this, Ammophos remains extremely cheap by: P /E”10 = 3,7; EV /EBITDA “10 = 0,8. On the balance of Ammofos”s net cash in the amount of $ 181 million (accounting for 9 months. 2009, according to RAS), as well as a stake Apatit market value of $ 276 million target price - $ 220.

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Oil and Asia will not allow the market to continue growing with the opening

Today, we expect moderate negative opening Russian sites. The resumption of the decline in oil prices would have a negative impact on the actions of Russian players. Also, a negative factor for our market is the dynamics of Asian sites, which, for the most part, are traded in the “minus”. Despite yesterday”s rapid growth that took place at moderately positive background, the situation may change. “Bulls” to break through resistance at 1,460 points and gain a foothold above, but today, in case of deterioration of the external background, we can expect attempts to “bear” to divert the market to this level and break it. Today, in connection with the opening of sites in the United States, resumed output reports of American companies, of which special attention will be drawn to a report Citigroup, which will be published before the start of trading in the United States.

hours trading on the Russian sites have opened lower quotes on a background of negative dynamics in energy prices, but the bulls were able to seize the initiative, to begin upward movement and bring Russia”s papers into positive territory. Growth was maintained until the end of the trading session, facilitated by the situation on the European sites and corrective rise in oil prices. In the market leaders were the paper: MTS, Mosenergo and Uralsvyazinform, adding 5,3%, 4% and 3% respectively. On the negative territory shares closed InterRAO (-1.6%) and Rostelecom (-1%). As a result of trading the MICEX index rose 1.85%, ending the day at 1,479.5 points.

Trades in the United States yesterday not held in connection with the celebration of Martin Luther King, but futures for the American indexes have continued to haggle. After we close a contract for the S P500 showed lateral dynamics, which remained at the morning session. As a result, it traded 9.30 at 1,134.75 points.

energy market after we moved to the closure of lateral movement. Futures Brent crude held the position above the level of 77 dollars, but in today”s morning session decline resumed. As a result, the contract dropped 9.30 to the level of 76.8 dollars per barrel.

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yesterday in the United States was a public holiday, financial markets in the country closed. Index Ksetra the Frankfurt Stock Exchange DAX (Xetra DAX) rose 42.58 points (0.72%) and at the level of 5918.55. Index of the London Stock Exchange Futsi 100 (FTSE 100) rose by 39.02 points (0.72%) to close at 5494.39.

activity at forex market in the U.S. session was extremely low due to weekend in the U.S.. The euro /dollar established near the 1.4380 mark. Rate pound /dollar is oscillating around level of 1.6330. Course dollar /yen has stabilized near the mark of 90.70.

investors” attention focused on the publication of fundamental data in the UK, Germany and the United States, as well as to address the Bank of England Governor King, which is scheduled tomorrow at 19:00 GMT.

Today is scheduled for release the following data:

at 09:30 GMT - harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) in the UK in December (forecast 0.2% per month, 2.4% for the year, the previous value of 0.3% per month, 1.9% for the year);

at 09:30 GMT - retail price index (Retail prices) in the UK in December (forecast 0.3% per month, 2.0% for the year, the previous value of 0.3% per month, 0.3% for the year);

at 09:30 GMT - inflation index “RPI-X” in the UK in December (forecast 3.5% per year, the previous value of 2.7% per year);

at 10:00 GMT - an index of business expectations of the German Center for Economic Research (ZEW economic expectations index) in Germany in January (forecast 49.5, the previous value of 50.4);

at 13:55 GMT - economic survey of retail sales, “Redbook” (Redbook) for the past week in the U.S.;

at 14:00 GMT - the volume of purchases by foreign investors of U.S. Read the rest of this entry »

Monday Russia”s stock index finished a moderate rise in the background of positive dynamics of world stock and commodity exchanges: RTS (1,40%), MICEX (1,65%).

Shares of oil and gas sector rose after the oil price: Gazprom (1,4%), Rosneft (0.9%), LUKOIL (0,75%). Among the papers of domestic banks enjoy strong demand shares of Sberbank, which grew by 2,7%, paper VTB added 0,5%. Top gainers were shares of steel companies, with the exception of securities NLMK, fell by 1%: Severstal (6,6%), CMI (7.0%).

On Monday, the U.S. stock market was closed for the holiday. At the Asian markets today, there is negative dynamics caused by the expectation of weak corporate reports of major companies. As leaders of the decline - stocks of technology and financial companies. Commodity markets demonstrate the growth of a weaker dollar. Oil prices slightly adjusted after yesterday”s significant growth. A barrel of Brent crude oil is $ 77.

According to our estimates, this morning”s background negative for Russia”s stock market. Lower oil prices are likely to put pressure on the paper oil and gas companies. The reduction in global demand for shares of the financial sector can adversely affect the securities of domestic banks.

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