Wednesday, October 21, the major stock markets of the European region have completed the session in positive territory. In the first half of the auctions the index of the region remained in the red zone, but published reports Morgan Stanley, which has appeared better expectations of analysts will give you confidence that seven months rally of shares was not in vain, and corporate records that are no small proof. Additional support index was macroeconomic statistics from the U.S., according to which the oil reserves in the last week rose 1.3 million barrels to 339.1 million, while expected to increase to 1.8 million, however, it is worth noting that the performance of Peugeot Citroen and Deutsche Bank disappointed investors, limited growth of the regional indices.

As a result of trading a key index of the UK FTSE 100 rose 0.28%, French CAC 40 index grew by 0,05%, while the German DAX closed in positive territory at 0.37%. Regional index Dow Stoxx 600 has become harder to 0,42% and closed at a level of 249.29 points. Markets of Austria, Belgium and Italy did not support a general positive mood, retreating to 1,43%, 0,25% and 0,22% respectively.

Papers of the French bank Natixis strengthened to 11.39% to 4,399 euro against the backdrop of increase Credit Suisse Group analysts, their predictive value of 36% to 5.7 euros.

Analysts Bank of America - Merrill Lynch recommended buying shares of British companies real estate sector. As a result, Hammerson and Derwent London added to your asset 0,57% and 4,67% respectively.

Leading retailer Tesco has moved to Germany 2,33% to 392.8 pence by improving the analysts Nomura Holdings predictive value of its shares by 30% to 526 pence. Read the rest of this entry »

These scientific, technical, human intelligence can serve as a basis for raising the Ukrainian economy to the European level, says the head of the Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) Nikolay Malomuzh.

about the effectiveness of the use of intelligence data - it is necessary that it is estimated by specialists. However, these data could provide a good basis to pre-empt crises, economic, energy, financial, for the very important advances in new technologies and get the economy on a fundamentally new Technology (…) advanced level, which would have been no lower than Europe, - he said.

He noted that the RAF very effectively develops undercover unit. This work was done before us, but we have now stepped up the work. We have powerful features in regions with complex political situation, especially where the threats come from terrorist organizations, centers, where we have our economic interests, security interests, — For now stressed.

relatively scientific and technical intelligence, then, the head of the SVR, it is one of the best in the world. Read the rest of this entry »

Fixing

dezretsessii in the Ukrainian economy requires additional efforts by the authorities, says the head of the panel of advisers head of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) Valery Litvitsky.

The third quarter looked better than the second. But mezhkvartalnoe comparison indicates a weakening of the inhibitory process of decline in July-September … The measures of monetary and budgetary support to the reconstruction process in the economic sphere have not yet led to a noticeable turn of the situation for the better. Slowing decline is not yet adequately reliably, - he said the agency Interfax-Ukraine on Wednesday.

Advisor NBU Head explained that, after eliminating the effect of the calendar and seasonal factors, GDP growth in the second quarter to the first quarter can be estimated at 4,5%, and the third to the second - only 3,7%.

According to V. Litvitsky, falling GDP in the third quarter of 2009 compared to same period in 2008 can be estimated at 15,2%: year-end decline in GDP could reach 13-14%.

In the balance of macroeconomic risks in the third quarter was even more noticeable asymmetrical bias towards a recession. Read the rest of this entry »

Russia's gas giant Gazprom is planning to acquire a 10 percent share of the U.S. natural gas market within 10 years, reports Reuters Television with reference to the words of John Hattenberger, President of Gazprom Marketing Trading USA.

In absolute terms, our share is to make 220 million cubic meters of gas a day - said Hattenberger. - Agreement to increase the existing supply will be signed soon. Gazprom, through its subsidiary Gazprom Marketing Trading USA began to supply gas to North America on Oct. 2, 2009 According to John Hattenberger signed agreements allow the company to it at this time to supply only 15 million cubic meters of gas per day throughout the United States during the next 7 years.

Hattenberger noted that demand for gas in the U.S. will increase again as the economic recovery. This trend will also contribute to restrictions on carbon dioxide emissions because natural gas - clean burning fuel.
Guide

Gazprom also announced plans for the sensational capture the world market for liquefied natural gas. Read the rest of this entry »

Ruble updates annual maxima

domestic currency continues to strengthen: the U.S. dollar in the UTS with the calculations of tomorrow came close to the border as early as 29 rubles and amounted to 29,16. This is 2.7 kopecks. less than the weighted average rate of the previous trading day. However, today the volume of trading has not significantly increased: it amounted to 1,586.42 million dollars, which exceeded the figures of the previous trading day by 20%.

in favor of strengthening the ruble today are added all the circumstances. First and foremost, is rapidly rising in price petroleum. Black gold on product platforms poses a new price record, renewing annual maximums.

Another reason can be considered the increased interest of investors to domestic exchanges, and as a consequence of capital inflows into the domestic economy. However, this factor is purely speculative in nature: in the event of a substantial correction in the stock markets and changes in oil quotations in the negative direction, it is very likely that we will see the outflow of money. On the development of this scenario speaks in particular, and the fact that the money come to Russia not because of qualitative changes in the balance of payments, which in principle not possible in such a short time. However, while the Bank of Russia has forecast that up to the IV quarter of capital inflow in Russia will amount to 15-20 billion dollars, while maintaining current oil prices will certainly affect the further strengthening of the domestic currency.

separate line is necessary to note the position of the dollar in Forex: the U.S. currency weakens not only to Russia, but also against other world currencies. It is possible that investors have decided on the time to abandon the dollar and shift from one currency to another. In the inflated oil bubble that step may be justified in terms of minimizing the risks of exchange rate fluctuations.

domestic currency could further strengthened, if not of the Bank of Russia. The regulator has consistently continued to conduct foreign exchange intervention, and only yesterday on the recognition of Central Bank first deputy chairman Alexei Ulyukayev purchased on the market for just under 1.5 billion dollars. Overall, since the beginning of October the Bank of Russia bought in the domestic market of about 9 billion dollars.

Further relationships couples ruble /dollar in the near future will depend on the actions of the Bank of Russia: as long as oil prices rise, the regulator will decide - to restrain the excessive strengthening of the ruble, or to stop buying foreign currency from the market.

Read the rest of this entry »

the end of the year the company must pay $ 63 million syndicated loan and $ 7 million debt on the Euro-bonds

owner of the company Ukr-Avto (controls the Zaporizhia Automobile Plant) Tariel Vasadze driving age of 12. Children's fascination with his father's car GAZ-69 (in common parlance Mutt) is largely determined his fate. However, the key to success in life graduate of the Kiev Institute of the road was not the ability to steer, and the ability to attract loans. Their impact on the business Vasadze not be overemphasized. First, thanks to loan state Ukreksimbanka entrepreneur was able to purchase your key asset - Zaporozhye Automobile Plant. Secondly, through bond issues, as well as syndicates of investment banking he has retarded the company to stay afloat.

When in May this year, the main competitor ZAZ - Bogdan Corporation - had to negotiate with creditors and begin the process of restructuring its debt, it seemed that the strength of Cossacks enough to avoid a similar fate. However, the financial results of the first half showed that the total credit outstanding has exceeded the six-month revenue ZAZ, and the ratio of debt to the company of his own capital according to experts has grown to 116%. Given the significant growth in the automobile market in Ukraine is not observed, Tariel Vasadze certainly have to negotiate with creditors and to demonstrate that he is able to negotiate not only with Ukrainian officials and Western bankers.

Loans under Lanos

While the flagship of Russia's automobile industry concern AvtoVAZ declares the whole world that was on the verge of bankruptcy, at the Zaporozhye Automobile Plant silence and tranquility. Information on its debt obligations and creditors of the company does not provide. Usually such secrecy about anything is not good evidence. After all, Cossacks, as Samartsev, have a rich history of credit events, which resulted in the accumulation of debts.

In 2003, ZAZ first decided to issue three series of bonds totaling $ 150 million UAH. The money was needed for the organization MKD assembly of Opel, and since early 2004 - Lanos. Bonds managed to successfully place at 14% per annum through the bank Aval.

Subsequently

net profit Automobile grew exponentially, prompting managers to the implementation of new large-scale projects. For example, in early 2006, ZAZ announced his intention to invest in the development of production and commodity network 768.5 million UAH. In addition, it became aware of the joint plans of the corporation Bogdan and ZAZ to build car assembly complex in Nizhny Novgorod region in Russia. The total project budget is estimated at $ 700 millionshare of Cossacks, as well as the source of funds is not disclosed, but is unlikely strategy ZAZ differ greatly from Bogdan, who invested in the project only 15-20% of its own funds, while the rest was credits.

Nizhegorodskiye interests ZAZ attract the attention of Russian venture banks, and a car factory being established with the active cooperation. Already in July 2006, Moscow's MDM Bank provides a Ukrainian enterprise to a large loan of $ 75 million at favorable 8,5% full-time equivalent. Already half a year later the same financial institution with the participation of Bank VTB Capital and HSBC had hosted accommodation ZAZom evroob bonds are worth $ 125 million third issue was purchased by private commercial banks, and the rest - Western hedge funds and investment banks. Internet Agency Сbonds leads interesting geographical statistics of the holders of Eurobonds ZAZ: Europe - 46%, Asia - 39%, Russia - 15%.

Having successful experience placement, management of car factory in January 2007, announced the launch of four new series D - G at 600 mn. The organizer of the next issue was to be Brokbusinessbank, but a month Zaporozhye automobile plant halted the issuance of bonds and the prospectus. Officially, this decision was due to a change in current policy borrowing.

new stage ZAZ credit history has been the engagement of two syndicated loans in 2008. Read the rest of this entry »

officials flaunt statistics on the harvest of grain. Meanwhile, Ukraine is losing ground on international food market.

This happens rarely, but in 2009 turned to good fortune to farmers right place: harvest by volume - the third in the history of independent Ukraine. Since the fields have already collected more than 41 million tons of grain. In full swing - harvesting corn, sunflower and sugar beet. Total cereal production is forecast Ministry of Agrarian Policy, expected to reach 43-44 million tons. Well, great PR opportunity for those in power against the backdrop of never-ending stream of negative information about the situation in the country's economy. While officials are concerned about the elections, but it would cost to worry about something else: the position of Ukraine on the world food market worsened.

According to the forecast of the Ministry of Agriculture, in the current season, our country will go down to sixth place among the leading exporters of grain (wheat and animal feed) in the world, skipping ahead of U.S., EU, Canada, Australia and Russia. While in the 2008/09 marketing year Ukraine had 9,8% of total world exports of cereals, in 2009/10-m share of our country will be reduced, possibly to 7.5%.

And this despite the fact that traders were taken abroad grain even more than last year (for more details - see the interview with the Minister of Agrarian Policy, Yuri Melnikov).
But not so much to save for a year before had won market share. Talking to journalists, most of the agrarian market experts were clear: the harvest could be greater. Of course, one of the established tradition in Ukraine failed to write off the bad weather conditions, the more so and the reasons for this were: freezing in April, the long rains in July in some regions …

However, their contribution made, and officials. In particular, in the 2009 Budget did not provide subsidies for planting of winter crops, too late Cabinet decided to allocate financial assistance to producers of sugar beets. Lack of monetary support in almost completely collapsed bank lending turned out to farmers terrible shortage of working capital. As a result, had to save during the spring sowing. The money from the Treasury came late. For example, subsidies to farmers of $ 70 million grn. came only September.

This has prevented a timely manner to purchase the necessary drugs and to the feeding of crops. This in turn negatively affected the quality of the harvest, - says Yaroslav Kardash, director general of the Ukrainian State Fund for Support of farms.
As

while distributing the pittance - remained a mystery for themselves farmers. The specifics of support is becoming less clear to farmers - with regrets Vladimir Lapa, the head of the expert group Ukrainian club of agrarian business . - The main program of assistance are available from the stabilization fund. A stabilization fund, in essence, is controlled manually. As a consequence - it is not clear who and when supported. In this sense, illustrative example of the cultivation of sugar beet.

During the meeting, chaired by the Prime Minister of beet-sugar complex (September 22, pp. g. - ed.) already started in Ukraine when the sugar beet harvest, a discussion, and how did pay a subsidy: per hectare or ton collected material, - said Vladimir Lapa. - This is a big disadvantage to the Government, as it usually is in other countries still offset by some public injections into the economy of the negative consequences of the crisis. In Ukraine, this, unfortunately, no .

But if officials will reconsider their approaches to the management of one of the key sectors of the economy for the country, to take the bar in the 60-100 million tons of grain will be for the Ukrainian farmers feasible task. The more that is required of bureaucrats to start is not too much - to add their actions predictable. We have very good years in APC were when the state does not chinilo no restrictions - notes reasonably Elizabeth Malyshko, judge of the grain market think tank UkrAgroConsult. - Home - not to interfere.

Yuriy Melnik: Most of the elevators HOOK Bread of Ukraine , Goskomrezerv and Agrarian Fund is merged into a single structure

Minister of Agrarian Policy of Ukraine welcomed the outcome of the harvesting campaign. But in an interview he expressed the opinion that the establishment of large gosoperatora exporter of grain will increase the country's position in the international market.

In the past season Ukraine joined the three leading exporter of grain. However, due to low quality abroad, we supply a cheap, coarse, rather than food grains. How can I change the situation?

- The quality of collected wheat in Ukraine in this season much better than in the past. But of 3.9 million tons of wheat exported from Ukraine (as of October 12), most - fodder. Why? Because it is the buyer. Food wheat, as a more expensive product, and requires a completely different customer. In these circumstances, to recommend to our producers to bet on prodzerno not quite true - they will still have to sell it at a price of feed.

If the market situation changes, we will give a signal to our producers. For example, today we celebrate the growing interest in foreign markets to our protein products - soybean and peas. Therefore, we are talking about that in the next planting season we have increased plantings of these crops.

your prediction on the export of Ukrainian grain to the level of 17-18 million tonnes remain in force?

- From 1 July to 12 October abroad exported 7.4 million tons of grain crops. This is 100-200 thousand tons more than in 2008 (for the same period). Results of the first months of the season gave no reason for the revision of our forecast.

Ministry supported the establishment of large public operator in the market for grain export. It is known that such will be the company Grain of Ukraine. You can confirm this information?

- We have come close to creating such a large operator. The Ministry has prepared a draft decree of the Cabinet (the establishment of Grain of Ukraine - ed.), At the moment he is on the harmonization of other ministries and departments. Resolving this issue do not come - have to deal with organizational interests. But we still count on the support of the Cabinet. After all, if this new structure will save budgetary funds.

Judge for yourself: Agrarian Fund, which is subordinated to Ministry of Agriculture, to date, for the intervention has the sum of 3 billion UAH. But at the same time, he has no elevator for storage of purchased grain. As a consequence, the Agrarian Fund had to store grain at both the public and private elevators and pay for this month to 12 UAH. for each ton of grain purchased for gosprodrezerva. In the month is incident about 12 million grn.
Also there

Goskomrezerv, which subordinated the Ministry of Economy, which has about 30 silos. In addition to storing grain State Reserve, the elevators, as well as those who belong HOOK Bread of Ukraine (about 80 - approx. VD), providing services to businesses for the storage of grain.

question is - is not rational, it would be to combine all those assets into a single structure? After all, this is public property. We agree that Goskomrezerv kept a part of the silos for storing grain state reserve. But another part, as well as most businesses HOOK Bread of Ukraine and the financial capabilities of the Agrarian Fund, can be combined into a single structure. It will work as an operator on the domestic market to sustain ¬ Zhaniya stable grain prices, as well as be able to sell part of its production to foreign markets. Read the rest of this entry »

Ladies and gentlemen!

After five minutes on our web site will begin a conference on: Oil: grown up fair price, what's next? .

price of $ 75-80 per barrel of oil - an optimal and equitable. This was unanimously spoke during the current year and the leaders of the G8, and participants in the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum,and representatives of many of the producing countries. Vice-Premier Igor Sechin, also called the price of $ 75 per barrel most favorable for Russia and necessary for the development of mining projects. To mark the long-awaited $ 80 oil futures approached by a weaker dollar and the overall situation in the stock markets. But how stable the current level of prices?

Does the price rally, observed in the oil market in recent weeks, the fundamentals of the world economy? What is the probability of radical change of trend in commodity markets? What factors will affect the price of oil futures by the end of the year?

Participants:

Alexander Eremin , analyst IK Finam

Rustam Readings , a leading expert of the Union of Oil and Gas Producers of Russia, general director of InfoTEK-Terminal

Vitaly Kryukov , an analyst IFD Kapital

Vitaly Gromadin , an analyst at UK Arbat Capital

Michael Turukalov , the chief editor of the prices and regional markets IAC Cortes

Natalia Surikova , Head of macroeconomic analysis Petrocommerce

Ask the Experts you can now!

Read the rest of this entry »

Vista: immediate technical support for the MICEX index is currently located at the levels of 1348 (OVR-5) and 1293 (MA13)

The market fell into a stalemate, which can be expressed by the following formula: to grow scared, but do not want to fall. During the period from mid-July, the MICEX index showed an increase (in the light of yesterday's maximum) to 62,9%. Figures are quite critical, especially for the players focused on the immediate horizon for investment. Many are skeptical that the market will soon show continued steady growth, and for good fundamental reasons.

expectations RTS Index (1452.42 on 20/10/09), calculated by RBC is based on fair prices professional participants actually caught up with the current value of the RTS index. Perhaps, for long-term investors, this fact is not so important - in the long term, the index is likely to be significantly higher. However, this is not true for those players who play with leverage. The time factor is more critical, and bet in the game only the fact that the market will continue to grow against the background of cheap liquidity and expensive oil, a rather risky proposition. Yesterday morning the aborted flight of the market - evidence of this. Industry MICEX Oil Gas for the last 7 trading sessions actually standing in one spot (0.5%), while the price of oil has risen by almost 10%. As we see, the oil sector has not responded to expensive oil.

To start correcting lacks meaningful information occasion. Without this, attempts to play bears on Short brings the opposite effect, but pass up, in turn, meet the new portion of sales.

correctional possible trigger could be a technical turn resold the dynamics of the dollar. As the main factors putting pressure on the dollar, commonly called the budget deficit, a zero rate and low rate of economic growth. However, published reports of the majority of American companies in general superior to expert estimates, and demonstrate a positive trend of the U.S. economy out of recession. If the business is restored, it is in theory should support the national currency, increasing its reliability. The first signs of a possible recovery of the dollar emerged yesterday. The index of the dollar was supported near the level of 75 para, and the euro /dollar put her in 1,50. The upper limit of 8-month down-trend for the dollar index is now at level 76 item yesterday had already been reached the level of 75.76 p.

If you look at the dynamics of our market-wide 6-year cycle, the historical parallels in the last decade of October and leave no room for optimism. Therefore believe that it is advisable to stay out of the market. The immediate technical support for the MICEX index is currently located at the levels of 1348 (OVR-5) and 1293 (MA13).

Read the rest of this entry »

Share indexes of Asia decrease on Wednesday because of falling commodity prices and the weak statistic data on the housing market in the United States. Losers are the shares of mining and technology companies, reports Bloomberg.

dollar and US Treasuries rise.

Composite stock index MSCI Asia Pacific Asia Pacific dropped to 0,7% - to 120.41 points. Since March the minimum rate added 71% after the stabilization of the global economy.

Japanese Nikkei 225 lost with the opening of trading 0,3%, Australia SP /ASX 200 - to 0,3%. The South Korean Kospi fell 0.55.

Economic recovery continues, but the data show that its pace is slowing, - said analyst Mitsubishi UFJ Asset Management Co. Kiyosi Isigane.

number of new buildings in the U.S., according to the Ministry of Commerce, in September rose by 0,5% and amounted to 590 thousand houses in annual terms. In August, according to updated figures, the number of new homes was equal to 587 thousand, not 598 thousand, as previously reported.

Analysts expected rate increase last month by 2% from the earlier announced the August level - up to 610 thousand homes. Read the rest of this entry »