On Friday, Russia's stock market did not ignore good makrostatistiku and steady rebound in oil prices, concluded last week of summer with a symbolic advantage.
RTS index rose 1.77% to 1089.46 points and the MICEX index - by 2.9% to 1111.33 points. Trading volumes remained below the average of recent values.
Before bidding, bidders were very puzzled by the nature of past trading on Wall Street. If several sessions before markets preferred to use the output statistics as a favorable opportunity for the resumption of which became the dominant movement down at this time, the signal received from the U.S. stock market, has added yet more confusion. Stock indices of the country after the fall at the beginning of the session later felt the surge of optimism, along with oil prices, which have become steadily climb after touching psychologically important support at $ 70/barr. Notably, while what he oil and gas index was not able to get to the positive territory, and the initial negative reaction to the very positive GDP data has been forgotten. It should be added relatively restrained reaction of investors in Asia, a session at the United States, which had been mingled with unfavorable data on the Japanese economy in the form of unemployment and consumer price index, as well as statistics from China showed a further reduction of lending in this country. Sure a positive signal to Russia's stock market before the opening was a spike in oil prices from $ 70 to $ 73 per barrel, which, however, concealed the risk of early technical correction to the growth at any time. The result of these conflicting factors was quite low activity of market participants, who preferred to wait for the bulk of next week to make more serious decisions.
After playing external environment, the MICEX index was toward the end of the first hour of trading zone in the vicinity of 1100-1105 points, which blocked the way before the bulls to a peak in early August. A new upward momentum in oil prices and more than adequate market response to positive expectations makrostatistiki pushed MICEX on triggering of stop orders above this line. The catalyst for this process has exceeded the consensus forecast of a composite index of business and consumer confidence in the euro-zone economy. Later, however, the market went in the lateral drift, the narrow limits of which remain valid until the end of the session, despite all the disturbance caused.
So, initially quite restrained the market reacted to the data as the consumer sector in the U.S., despite their beneficial nature. The only negative thing is that the incomes of Americans rose less than forecast, but it was more than offset by the fact that data on income and expenditure for the previous two months were revised upward. Encouraged by the statistics that the real cost of inflation rose by 0.2%, while wages rose by 0.1% for the first time since August last year. Mindful of the fact that earlier output statistics caused an avalanche of sales, the bulls took time out and just making sure that the Bears did not become activated, went on the attack and re-burned. After take-off to new intraday highs followed by a rollback in high volumes with a negative start of trading on Wall Street, who returned the MICEX index to within a previously corridor. Consumer confidence index released by the University of Michigan, even though that was better than forecast, a new round of increase quotations were given. Here, market participants drew attention to the fact that only 16% of Americans polled said that their household finances had improved on the basis of the past month, which was the worst level since 1946. Also alarmed that the composite index slumped to its lowest value since March, and that the stability he gave expectations to improve the situation in the economy, rather than assessing the current state of affairs.
In the face of increased uncertainty in the market, market participants chose to focus on corporate news, which came out a lot and which diversity is rather boring day.
This accounts for the II quarter, according to international standards before the auction published Lukoil. Net profit for the reporting period, the results far exceeded the consensus forecast of analysts, that formed as a consequence of the high gap opening and attracted buyers in the future. The company's shares went up by 3.76%, conceded only paper Tatneft (5.31%) among the oil and gas sector (Micex OG 3.26%). Information about Gazprom's desire to reduce investment in its energy assets to 362 billion rubles. to 269 billion rubles. by optimizing the cost, as well as smudge them for a longer period, not affected his actions, which showed slightly worse compared to the dynamics of the sector and the market as a whole. Information is the imposition of FAS record fines for violation of the antimonopoly legislation of his oil daughter (Gazprom Neft shares rose only 1.63%) resulted in a wider resonance. Impressed investors and the amount (4,676 billion rubles.) Fine and the fact that the fines in the past year are still in the courts to date not been decided in favor of the company.
In the metallurgical sector (Micex MM 2.22%) supported the initiative of Lukoil's Novolipetsk Steel (2.95%), which also published a fairly strong statements for the II quarter of international standards. Better opponents looked Paper MMC Norilsk Nickel (4.03%) due to confidently conduct of shares of mining companies abroad.
Financial Sector (Micex FNL 2.02%) looked weaker market, leveling their advantage on the basis of previous auction: VTB (2.57%), Sberbank (1.3% obyk., scion. 1.68%).
The news of the update as soon as the transition into practice the translation of network companies on a new system of tariff regulation RAB (Regulatory Asset Base - Adjustable base of capital employed), which is the main idea of the investment, has generated enormous interest in the shares of FGC UES (15.22 %), IDC Holding (13.06%) and shares of IDC (growth in 5-13%). With this contribution the energy sector Micex PWR soared to 6.28%.
look at today's market:
American stock market could not hold onto new highs since the beginning of the year (SP 500 -0.2%). In general, good data on personal income /spending and consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan, as well as news from Dell, Intel and Marvell Technology, reflecting an improvement of prospects for the technology sector, could not outweigh the reluctance of the majority of market participants to move on up after reaching a new peak, and the formation of the divergences of the oscillator. Sales touched mainly shares of defense sectors - health, retailers and manufacturers of consumer goods. Futures on U.S. indexes on Monday exacerbate unimportant closing spot market (SP 500 -0.66%).
Asian stock markets (MSCI Asia Pacific -0.5%) together had gone into negative territory against the background of another sharp fall of the Chinese Shanghai composite (-5.34%). Selling pressure is increased the published score of the journal Caijing, indicating a sharp decrease in the rate of lending in China in August, as well as fears of contraction of liquidity in the run-up to IPO Metallurgical Corp. of China. Japanese Nikkei 225 (-0.3%) also is below the neutral mark due to the strengthening of the yen in light of the defeat of the ruling for half a century the Liberal Democratic Party in elections to the House of Representatives of the country. The increase in industrial production above forecasts was offset by irrelevant data on retail sales.
commodity markets at the beginning of the week and dominated by pessimism. Oil prices (WTI 72.3/barr.) Could not overcome the maximum on Friday, which triggered the psychological sales.
Russia's stock market on Monday will open with the price break down in the 0.5-1%, and then attempt to stay above overcame Friday up 1100 points on the MICEX index. However, the obvious factors of support from the bulls today there is, therefore, be expected that this level under the pressure of the bears all the same not hold, as a result will be tested by rising short-term trend line near 1090 points. Passage down this level finally to dot the i and would remove the remaining obstacles to the development of the wave down. The worst of the market today can be MMC Norilsk Nickel. Day of important data with the exception of the index of activity in the manufacturing sector, Chicago PMI (17-45) today, no. UK markets are closed today due to national holidays.
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