June 30, President, Chairman of the Board of the Savings Bank of Russia Herman Gref and the governor of Altai krai Alexander Karlin signed an agreement, which is the subject of cooperation in addressing the priorities of socio-economic development of the region, strengthening its economic and industrial capacity.

The parties intend to carry out long-term cooperation in a number of programs, including the priority national project Affordable and Comfortable Housing - to citizens of Russia, the state program of agricultural development and regulation of markets for agricultural products, raw materials and foodstuffs for 2008-2012, as well as programs aimed at promoting investment and innovation, supporting small and medium-sized enterprises, microfinance institutions to replenish the volume of loans, mortgages and housing, lending people. Read the rest of this entry »

The opening bid on the Russian stock market sites have been very positive. But as soon as oil prices on commodity markets have been adjusted slightly, domestic zalegli quotes in the boring side corridors. Alas, without external guidance, we are still nowhere.

Among the blue chips' signs of life served only shares of Gazprom. They have not yet realized its full technological potential of growth and mechutsya, not knowing what to do - go to the line of short-term downward trend is 165 rubles, or a bodies time to close the present gap of candles.

But the interest of speculators swept up in securities of energy companies, such as Irkustkenergo and Mosenergo. Also, demand for shares of smaller steel companies IMC and NLMK. These actions we recommended to buy at the end of last week, but it is now possible to calculate a good profit on them.

However, even in the special burn of second tier we would not have been. Top-down trends of the late May-early June, still no progress quotes our securities, and the current side the Russian stock market trend becomes smooth flowing nature.

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National Bakers Association (GSA) does not forecast a sharp increase in the price of bread.

Information about the massive increase in prices for bread, actively propagated by the media, are unfounded and only contributes to exacerbating the negative is in the public, - said the GSA on Tuesday.

As noted in a press release, is now the market price of bakery products is stable, which, in turn, is connected with stabilization of prices of basic and auxiliary raw materials, energy resources. In this optimistic forecasts and the projected new crop in this regard, the prices of grain and flour, according to experts of association, allowing bakers, in turn, did not raise the prices of finished products in the future.

Ukrainian Association of Bakers also does not expect a sharp increase in the price of bread in connection with the adoption of decisions of the Cabinet of Ministers, which imposes limits the profitability of mass production of bread varieties are not above 12%. Read the rest of this entry »

Campaigns

increase short positions in index ETF in the U.S. (SPY) and the indices of developed countries (Europe (VGK), Japan (EWJ)), with an increase in SP 500 index up to the mark in the 940-950 points with a goal in the nearest 880 points SP 500 index.

Keep long positions in the ETF for U.S. financial sector (XLF, KRE, KBE) with the immediate goal of $ 12.6 for the XLF.

Keep short positions in developing countries ETF (EEM, EWZ, EWY) with the immediate goal of $ 28.0 for the EEM.

Keep long positions in ordinary shares of VTB Bank (VTBR RX) with the immediate goal of 0,037 rubles.

Keep short position in the September futures on the RTS index (VEU9) with the immediate goal of 880 points. Increase the short in the case of growth of quotations to 1000-1020 items.

Raw

Sell August futures for oil varieties WTI (CLQ9) at levels of $ 73.00 and higher with the immediate goal of $ 68.00 and the stop-loss at the point of $ 76.80.

Buy August futures for natural gas (NGQ9) while reducing the quotation up to $ 3.80 and below with the immediate goal of $ 4.30 and the stop-loss at the point of $ 3.65.

Read the rest of this entry »

USD

nothing unusual in the world for Monday has not happened, not counting the penalty Medoffa to 150 years in prison, but hardly anyone is interested in the currency markets. And so, for the most part, couples to laziness, usually observed on Monday, and do not wish to risk in anticipation of the end of the month, quarter and half. Summer is traditionally considered a season of calm to investors, but the global crisis, of course, a bit confused card. Nevertheless, in the near future, we see no special catalysts abrupt movements: even if the growth rate will generally stabilize, it is still unlikely to make the move to the Central Bank policy tightening as soon as the state of the countries there are still so vulnerable.

Yesterday, the only records of the United States have been on the business activity of FRB Chicago FRB Dallas. Both indicators were slightly weaker than expectations, but this does not roiled the markets. According to figures released by FRB Chicago, under the pressure of problem avtosektora, activity in the manufacturing sector midwest United States in May reached a minimum of nearly 16 years. The index of manufacturing sector in the Middle West fell 3.1% in May to St. 78.2, down from September 1993. May data also showed that the FRB index of industrial production fell by 1.0% in the region. In general, a Chicago index remained in negative territory for 21 months, so it is not surprising happened. FRB Dallas on Monday reported that the production index for June reached -7.0 from -12 in May, while the total activity index was equal to -20.4 in May after the value of -21.5. The index of employment in June was equal to -25.2 to -27.0 in the previous month - do not forget that we already have to begin to track any indicators of labor market in anticipation of a report on levels of employment.

Today, the scene will report on consumer confidence and Chicago PMI. Given the positive momentum in the index of FRB Philadelphia, you can hope for positive surprises in this region. Markets, of course, will have any liking for the recovery of manufacturing indicators. All of these regional reports will help us prepare for published this week index of ISM.

EUR

euro managed podrasti slightly against the dollar, which is to support and economic data. In June, the index of economic morality euro recovered stronger projections, as well as the stabilization of consumer sentiment, services, and industrial production compensate for the loss of retail sales. After growth at 5.6 PTS. April record with a minimum index of economic sentiment EU has added another 3.1 PBC., showing the maximum value in November.

Today, we get data on the German labor market. ILO Report had already shown the morning increase in the number of unemployed at 140 thousand in the last year. If the public record will confirm the weakness of the industry, this could put pressure on the single currency. Nevertheless, there is the possibility of positive surprises - a component of PMI employment index for manufacturing and services offers hope for improvement.

GBP

A pound eye is not sufficient arguments to show more or less serious breakthrough or completely stop its attempts to grow. Read the rest of this entry »

30.06.2009 at 10:30 am in the market of lending to individuals was recorded as follows.

for loans from 5000,00 UAH offers banks fluctuate in following ranges:
At 1 month - 25.00% - 28.00% per annum, with 25.00% - UPB;
At 3 months - 25.00% - 28.00% per annum, with 25.00% - UPB;
At 6 months - 25.00% - 28.00% per annum, with 25.00% - UPB;
At 12 months - 25.00% - 28.00% per annum, with 25.00% - UPB;
At 18 months - 25.00% - 28.00% per annum, while 25.00 % - UPB;
At 24 months - 25.00% - 28.00% per annum, with 25.00% - UPB;
At 36 months - 25.00% - 40.50% per annum, with 25.00% - UPB.

The most frequent such proposals:
at 1 month - 28.00%, which corresponds to the amount of return 5116.67 UAH - offer: INDEX-BANK.
At 3 months - 28.00%, which corresponds to the amount of monthly repayment 1745.04 UAH — offer: INDEX-BANK.
At 6 months - 28.00%, which corresponds to the amount of monthly repayment 902.70 UAH - offer: INDEX-BANK.
At 12 months - 28.00%, which corresponds to the amount of monthly repayment 482.53 UAH - offering: INDEX-BANK.
At 18 months - 28.00%, which corresponds to the amount of monthly repayment 343.36 UAH - offer: INDEX-BANK.
At 24 months - 28.00%, which corresponds to the amount of monthly repayment 274.44 UAH - offer: INDEX - BANK.
At 36 months - 40.50%, which corresponds to the amount of monthly repayment 242.01 UAH - offer: Kredobank. Read the rest of this entry »

to the British financial companies for the first time in two years, returned to the optimistic mood, said the quarterly survey of financial companies, conducted by the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) and PricewaterhouseCoopers.

However, banks and building societies issuing loans to build or buy houses, remain less sure because they are struggling with record levels of bad debts.

in April-June business, revenue and profitability showed decline, but the decline is much slower than expected, gives a report of The Financial Times.

Overall, 13% of companies were more optimistic about the business situation in the sector - the first time since 2007. This is due to the increased expectations that the worst of the credit crisis and the recession is behind us, and that investors will return to the markets.

At the same time, companies that provide financial services, continued to cut jobs. About 34 thousand employees lost their jobs last year and about 17 thousand - in the first quarter. CBI and PwC projected decline in state for 15 thousand people in the second quarter and 13 thousand - in the third quarter.

According to the poll, only 1% of the respondents think that the high risk of further deterioration in financial markets, while in March the rate was at around 45%. Read the rest of this entry »

The Russian stock market completed its tender Tuesday assured the growth of quotations on the MICEX after the oil prices. As a result of trades on the RTS index fell 0.42% to 951.46 points and the MICEX index rose by 3.03% to 989.3 points. Activities of bidders that remained at the average level for the last few days: the volume of trades on the MICEX reached 58.62 billion rubles.

Trades on Monday opened a decline of quotations after futures on the U.S. indices and oil prices. The situation in foreign markets, however, quite quickly began to change with the opening of tenders in Europe. Up went the quotations of oil, as well as European markets. Followed them obediently went and quotations of Russian shares. Local resistance to feel a MICEX index in the region of 980 points, the index was able to overcome that until shortly before closing due to renewed rise in the U.S. market. In doing so, the market has once again successfully ignored the decline in projections for major macroeconomic indicators of Russia from the LED.

engine of growth in the second day were shares of Norilsk Nickel and Gazprom. Shares of banks, by contrast, looked a little, not responding to the most optimistic statements in the annual meeting of shareholders VTB and reports that the government puts pressure on the state bank to make them more active in lending to the real sector.

In the center of attention today in the morning will again be the price of oil, which continued rapid growth, and today in the morning is already approaching the point of $ 73 per barrel WTI in the nearest delivery. This, combined with optimism, which is observed in the Asian markets that should be sufficient to ensure that the MICEX index had to overcome when you open the box of 1000 points. Today, however, is very rich in events: expected to yield a large number of macroeconomic data for the UK, Eurozone and the United States. As a consequence, volatility can be quite large and can not be excluded in the afternoon, the sharp movements of quotations in any direction.

Read the rest of this entry »

After a short pause at the beginning of the week, world indices are beginning to recover. In anticipation of the launch of corporate reporting season, investors' optimism is supported by expectations of improving the profitability of companies in the background of signs of recovery of the U.S. economy. U.S. indexes added about 1%, Asian MSCI - 1,6%, Nikkei - about 2%. Thus, the capital once again rushed in risky assets, with the main demand is in raw materials. Quotations of oil jumped to 2.3% to $ 72.64. With such a positive external background, domestic indices have to open the growth of 2-3% and is likely to remain positive sentiment among investors over the next two to three days.

U.S. indexes added in the course of yesterday's auction of about 1%. Apparently, investors are trying to squeeze out the maximum from the pre-week. Their optimism is based primarily on positive expectations of the upcoming corporate reporting, which they hoped to see signs of economic recovery. Against this backdrop, the greatest demand for commodity assets and shares of mining companies. Against the backdrop of the growth of quotations of oil more than $ 2 per barrel (up to $ 71.4/barrel) during the bidding of American energy sector grew by 1.5%. Growth in shares of steel companies was 1%. Additional support sector have news about the restoration of activity in the MA: in particular, the proposal for the purchase of Anglo American for $ 24 billion from the Xtrata. Also, the demand seen in the actions of the banking sector and technology companies, both sectors added about 1%.

It should be noted that the recovery in demand for raw materials did not prevent a very pessimistic report, International Energy Agency (IEA), which expects lower demand for oil at 3.7% in the medium term (up to 2011-2012 years), with a recovery in demand to pre-crisis levels is expected only in 2015. The reason for such conservative estimates, is very weak macroeconomic Background: The Agency believes that the growth of the leading economies of developing countries will not be able to compensate for the fall of the consumption of energy by developed countries.

Asia supported American optimism about the recovery of world economy in the second half of this year. In the paper were the best performing oil (Sinopec: 5,8%), metallurgy (Rio Tinto shares rose by 3.5%). An essential factor for the growth of the shares of Chinese oil companies had the decision of the Chinese government to increase by 11% the price of fuel to ensure that the revenue of the company sector. In addition, the demand seen in the shares of financial companies and consumer sectors. In general, index MSCI Asia rose by 1.6%. Nikkei - 2%, and despite the rise in unemployment to a new 5-year-old record. The reason for investor optimism has become an unexpected increase in household expenditure in May.

It is likely that the Russian market opens today, a growth of 2-3%, despite another batch of negative forecasts for the economy of the Government (expected to decline to 8.5% of GDP). In the absence of any major exceptions of liquidity (in particular auctions treasuries), in the next couple of days of positive sentiment in the market should continue. Fixing possible profit on Thursday - on the publication of statistics on the labor market, but it is unlikely to lead to full-scale correction in advance of U.S. Independence Day.

We believe that the greatest demand today will be using paper oil and steel companies. In this context, the market can look better than equities Lukoil, Surgutneftegaz, Severstal.

Today, the market waits for new data to the real estate market: the index will be released in 17-00 SP Case Shiller. Investors are very positive and are waiting for further recovery in prices on the real estate market. In addition, interest publication Chicago PMI (17-45), the index of consumer confidence in the United States (18-00).

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Expert Analytical Group (EAG) on the market of petroleum and petroleum products in the Ministry of Fuel and Energy, at its meeting on June 6, intends to consider changing the method of calculating the cost of motor fuel at petrol stations. As the Director General of the SOEs' Ukrneftehimpererabotka (analyzes prices) Vladimir Emelin, the team can return to the formula, which worked until May of this year.

EAG

then calculated the price based on the average wholesale cost of fuel between the Ukrainian and foreign production. And since May, the experts in the Ministry of Fuel and Energy no longer take into account the domestic consumption of petroleum products. By the time it coincided with a sharp increase in the cost of fuel at filling stations. In June, the price has jumped to more than 10%. For example, gasoline A-95 for filling the capital's already 6,88-6,93 UAH per liter.

Now with the Ministry of Fuel and Energy Group uses only the data of American private company Platt's, which, in turn, takes the value of quotes for petroleum products in the European market. The cheaper price does not take into account Ukraine's oil, - said Deputy Director Science and Technology Center Psyche Gennadij Ryabtsev. According to experts, the decision to exclude from the formula value of domestic petroleum lobby big oil, who want to justify the increase in the cost of their products.

Although the EAG does not have the authority to regulate the market, the figures are an indicator. That is, if the estimated prices increased, oil is not being blocked to raise their prices.

Commercial Director

network of filling stations CLAUD Vyacheslav Стешенко believes that the formula was revised due to objective reasons. Now the cost of gasoline is almost entirely dependent on its price abroad, the Ukrainian oil covers only 18-20% of consumption. Read the rest of this entry »