Currency Trade: Tax Planning and Budgeting For Currency Traders

Market is back in the downstream channel

Trading on the Russian sites have opened decrease quotations. External background in the form of lower oil futures quotes and American indexes are not allowed bulls to continue yesterday's growth. Down the corridor between the levels of 990 - 1000 points on the MICEX index, where he spent the middle of the day, the market moved sideways movement in anticipation of labor market from abroad. Statistics disappointed investors. Reducing the number of jobs in non-agricultural sectors was 467 thousand, which was at 100 thousand more than the expected level. As a result, the market swept a new wave of reductions. No more moderate, on the expected level, the increase in unemployment, which amounted to 9.5% or an increase in the number of industrial jobs, have been unable to halt the decline. Closer to our closing on the background correction at American sites and the energy market, the MICEX index was able to deviate from the values of the day. The leaders began to reduce paper Gazprom and Tatneft, which lost 4.99% and 4.45% respectively. Better the market closed, the paper Mosenergo, the decline by approximately 0.1%. At the end of the trading the MICEX index lost 3.5%, ending the day at 977.09 points.

Today was a mirror image of yesterday's speakers, but instead we have seen growth decline in prices. One must admit that the market was unable to hold above the upper border of the downstream channel, thereby confirming yesterday's breakdown of the line. If the ambient background does not get worse tomorrow bulls will attempt to retry the puncture, but in light of the negative data might force from them will not be enough, and soon we will see continued movement of the index in descending channel. This will lead him to support at 935 on the MICEX index, where the first opportunity for consolidation and then growth.

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After the Government issued the expected parameters of the budget-2010, many began to express concern that the budget deficit will lead to a devaluation of the ruble. However, if you look at the current reserves and other macroeconomic indicators. It is clear that the fears are exaggerated. Of course, the deficit of 2.5 trillion. rub. (which is realized if the average oil price of $ 50 per barrel) is quite large. However, gold reserves are now redundant: they make up more than $ 400 billion, while for the entire monetary base at the rate of 32 rubles. the dollar to $ 147.26 billion this way, consider the following scheme for financing the deficit: emission of rubles - listing them in the budget - costs - sterilization selling dollars in the foreign exchange market at the rate of 32 rubles. for the dollar. Acting on such a simple scheme, possibly to finance the budget deficit in full for the next three years and four months, ie until November 2012. Somewhat complicated scheme can be achieved and the best results. The point is that there is such a factor as a multiplier of public debt: The amount of released gosobligatsy typically exceeds the narrower monetary aggregates (M0, M1 M2).

Of course, it is possible to speculate that the CBR is not yet the Fed and U.S. Treasury Minin not, and in times of crisis, the multiplier of government debt will be less than unity. However, we are confident that despite the lack of market crisis and domestic public debt, releasing 1.5 trillion. new rubles, 0.5 trillion. of them could be sterilized does not sell the currency, and the placement of ruble gosobligatsy (OFZ, arr, or something else). Easy to see that having a budget deficit of 1.5 trillion. rub. and financing of its way to stretch in existing reserves for more than eight years. Missing $ 1 trillion. rubles can be gained by increasing the excise on alcohol and tobacco (which is now and will deal with the Ministry of Finance). Moreover, some 500 billion rubles. can be obtained by returning the sales tax. So for the ruble is not frightening level of oil prices at $ 50 a barrel.

But, we expect that the price of 'black gold' in 2010 willbe about $ 100 a barrel, as rising global inflation is inevitable. Zooming prices - the only way for lasting solutions to debt problems, without which it is impossible to restore economic growth and the financial authorities of major countries will have to do it.

In the run up to the middle of July, we are waiting for oil prices to $ 75 per barrel, and before the end of the year - to a level of $ 100 per barrel. Accordingly, we forecast growth index of the MICEX to 1350 points in July and up to 1700 points before the end of the year. Rate until the end of the year to enhance the level of 27 rubles. the dollar.

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Trading on Russian sites started declining quotes on a background of negative dynamics of the oil futures quotes and overseas indices. Returning to the corridor 990 - 1000 points on the MICEX index, which held a mid-market the previous day, he moved to the lateral motion. As leaders of reducing VTB, Gazprom and Tatneft , the loss of more than 3%. Better market Gazprom Neft (-0.64%). By 15.00 the MICEX index lost around 2.3%, down to the level of 990.

Today's auctions are mirror image of yesterday's session, but instead we have seen a decline in growth. Now the players are waiting statdannye, which is likely to revive the situation. At 16.30 will be data on the number of new jobs in non-agricultural areas (Nonfarm Payrolls, is expected to -365 thousand, the previous value of -345 thousand), unemployment rate (Unemployment Rate, expected 9.6%, previous 9.4%). At the same time, will be published statistics on initial applications for unemployment benefits (Initial Claims, expected 615 thousand, the previous value of 627 thousand). At 18.00 will be data on the index of industrial stocks (Factory Orders, expected 0.9%, previous 0.7%). Given the problems in the labor market in the United States, the statistics can bring additional negative on the market that will result in continued decline. If the market can hold at these levels, it can be considered that the market hold above the upper boundary of the downstream channel.

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Ladies and gentlemen!

After five minutes on the web site will begin conference on: Russian banks: lack of capital and other features .

The Banking system of Russia is beginning a new life: the Government has appointed banks locomotives and instructed them to increase lending to companies under the guarantee provided by the State. However, banks have not disappeared and still growing problem with the quality of loan portfolios and, consequently, reduction of bank capital. It is estimated agency Fitch, the real level of debt subject to credit by the end of the year was 25% and will be a need for significant capital infusions in banks.

How can I describe the current state of the banking sector in Russia? It will affect the business performance of banks' demands to build credit? What is the assessment of possible losses of the banking system for credit by the end of the year? Is there a need for additional injections in the state means the banking sector?

and whether the paper attractive for investment banking sector over the medium term?

Conference participants:

Paul Samiev , Deputy Director General of the rating agency Expert RA

Inna Kasianov , managing director for crediting small and medium-sized businesses Moskommertsbanka

Dmitry Kharlampi , a leading analyst of department of macroeconomic analysis OJSC Bank Petrocommerce

Olga Naidenova , an analyst FK Opening

Michael Zavaraev , an analyst Arbat Capital - Asset Management

Konstantin Romanov , analyst IK FINAM

Ask questions to experts, you can now!

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Changed direction, the Russian market on Wednesday went up in response to U.S. futures and the rebound in oil prices. In this paper Sberbank, still retain the leadership turnover, looked weaker market, and leaders of growth were to catch the market shares VTB, good-looking in recent papers of Gazprom and the Russian Hydro shares, supported by news that the company plans to launch the program ADR Level 1, which should help increase demand for its shares.

In general, however, despite the growth, the MICEX index was unable to break up the line downward trend, but because today is likely rebound down - even more so that the external background is moderately negative, while oil prices also falling, failing to break-up of formed recently outset. Apparently, yesterday's data on energy reserves in the United States, showed, along with declining oil reserves is also a significant increase in stocks of gasoline and distillates, not very pleased bulls, but because the cost of black gold once again moved to the bottom border outset. And in this case is notable that the outset may suddenly turn into turning a double peak with a view to $ 60 per barrel for Brent that the class will naturally have a negative for the Russian market.

However, we still believe that the most powerful movement we can see after the weekend because of the American holiday of July 4, the markets may be somewhat more sluggish than usual. The only chance for the movement we have today in the evening, when the United States went a whole clip of the news relating to the American unemployment. Read the rest of this entry »